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 GOLD is the new bubble! BEWARE

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Posted on 08-20-11 9:06 PM     Reply [Subscribe]
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I am not an economist nor a stock broker. But, just using my common sense, i belive Gold is whats gonna be our next bubble. The rate its rising everday is sure making its decline inevitable.
Now more people are buying GOLD ( thanks to NAS) but i can clearly see its fall once everyone starts doing so. Tulip was more expensive than GOLD back a century ago and the day it started falling, millions lost their hard earned savings, so beware! Dont fall for gold.
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Posted on 09-23-11 1:03 PM     [Snapshot: 2984]     Reply [Subscribe]
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What part of the world do yo u live in to pay $4.00 for a gallon of milk? Do you buy your milk from 711??? Walmart sells milk below 2 bucks a gallon and other chains like Krogers sell it between 2 - 3 bucks. Walmart was selling milk for $0.99 last spring for the whole spring and summer.

Posted on 09-23-11 1:28 PM     [Snapshot: 2994]     Reply [Subscribe]
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" thought I was going to see and post in this thread only when gold hit $2,000/ ounce. In any case, here we are again... For me though, anyone who holds 80% of their investment in one asset class is an utter fool, win or lose!"

He He. You did not to read all my posts. Please read all my posts and come back again. But wait...I will make it easy for you. I have talked about the much needed "correction" . Now go and re-read it.

If you know what "correction" is good for you. If you don't then for me anyone who don't know it, is  "an utter fool, win or lose" !

ओहो ! ब्यांका सुन को ढिक्को जमाउने तिमि, अनि नाम चै भिकारी ! वा भाइ वा ! मर्सिदेज गाडी घुइक्यौन्दै जान्छौ कि क्या हो भिख माग्न ! धतुरो चपाएर !
लु भिख माग्ने कटोरा को साथ् साथ् "किन्दल" पनि बोकछौ जस्तो लाग्छ ! फुर्सद मा यो पढ है त् ! टाइम पास गर्न सजिलो हुन्छ त्यो सडक को पेटी मा !

"नाजको पुनर्जन्म"

Welcome to Nas's 18 Corner


Posted on 09-23-11 1:57 PM     [Snapshot: 3037]     Reply [Subscribe]
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 oo nas bro..maile tapailai utter fool bhaneko kaa chhu ra.. mero dussahaas chaina. tyo bhanne manche III_III ho..

Posted on 09-23-11 2:11 PM     [Snapshot: 3042]     Reply [Subscribe]
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ह्या कस्तो तिमि भिकारी ब्रो !

मैले तिमीलाई भनेको होइन क्या ! अनि मैले नि अर्को हाम्रो |||_||| ब्रो लाइ "फूल" भन्नु खोजेको होइन ! जसले त्यो "कर्रेक्सन" को मानि था छैन उसलाई मात्र "फुल" भनेको !
हुन् त्  |||_||| ब्रो ले नै ठिक्कै भन्नु भाको हो ! कसैले ८०% सुन किन्न हुँदैन ! तर मेरो मनोसाया नाफा होइन ! नाफाको लागि अरु स्टकमा इनभेस्ट गर्न सकिन्छ ! तर मार्केट एक दम भोलाताइल छ ! रिस्क ज्यादा छ ! रिस्क लिन सक्नेले ज्यादा प्रफित प्राप्त गर्न सक्छ तर तेती मात्रा मै "लस" पनि हुन् सक्छ ! मलाई ब्यांकमा पैसा राख्नु भन्दा सुनमा परचेसिंग पावर जोगाउन मात्र खोजेको हु ! तेती मात्र हो मेरो पूर्णत मनोसाया !

अनि मलाई कसैले मेरो मुर्खता औउलैदिन्छ भनी म उ प्रति आभारीमात्र प्रकट गर्न सक्छु ! किन कि एदी मैले साँचीकै मुर्खताको काम गरेको छ भने उसले मलाई मार्ग दर्शन मात्र दिलैदेको हो ! तर एदी मैले सेल्फ एनलाइज़ पछी म मुर्ख जस्तो लागेंन भने म उसलाई गलत हो भनि दिन्छु ! तर साथिहरु छिट्टै रिसैहाल्छान्न फेरी साझा मा !

Posted on 09-28-11 1:58 PM     [Snapshot: 3233]     Reply [Subscribe]
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This exclusive post is for all my friends who are Sajha Gold Bugs.

Please don't take my postings as an investment advice for I might be wrong but then I have never been wrong so far.

Friends, finally we are seeing the "corrections" that I have been so eagerly waiting for. If you read through all my posts I have predicted that Gold prices will fall down. The price of Gold is AROUND $1600.00. It was pretty much expected by me.

So what's happening in the Precious Metal Market ?

'Precious metals are getting absolutely crushed, as investors are rushing for liquidity and selling anything in the green to cover losses in other assets. The market has good reason for concern. It is all but inevitable that Greece is going to default, a few major European banks will fail, and this will throw the entire world economy into a tailspin. The FED hasn’t helped the situation, announcing a very deflationary “Operation Twist,” rather than a new round of quantitative easing as the market was so desperately craving.

The move was reportedly intended to help the housing market by lowering mortgage rates and encourage businesses to start spending the cash they are hoarding, but investors reacted by selling off equities. The FED appears to be running out of bullets and the only true way that they could help the economy is to announce their dissolution.

Inflation vs. Deflation

It has been a while since I’ve commented on the inflation vs. deflation debate. It is a confusing thought to ponder, especially if your goal is to walk away on one side or the other. After all, intelligent minds argue forcefully on both sides. But I believe that we can have both inflation and deflation at the same time.

The massive amounts of stimulus and money printing over the past few years have been undeniably inflationary. There is significantly more fiat paper in existence today than there was in 2008. But the velocity of money has decreased significantly, meaning that cash is not flowing through the economy and exchanging hands at a very fast pace.

In addition, the larger portion of the overall money supply is credit, which has contracted sharply. Banks are not lending to individuals or businesses, while most of the new money created has benefited only a small segment of the population. This creates a scenario where there is some degree of monetary inflation, especially in cash-based markets, (food, energy, stocks, etc.) but very little inflation overall, particularly in credit-based markets such as housing.

With this massive credit contraction, lending has slowed, manufacturing has slowed, unemployment remains high and GDP growth is anemic at best. Economies can not grow when credit markets are frozen and this is the current state of economies across the globe. GDP growth has failed to keep up with debt growth and all of the toxic derivative creation has brought the world economic system to the breaking point.

I believe we will eventually have inflation or even hyperinflation in America, but we are currently in a deflationary dip that has yet to run its course. The final outcome is likely to be stagflation, a period with high inflation and low economic growth. Keynesians may be confused to see both occurring simultaneously, but the real issue is the how difficult stagflation is to overcome.

Why Gold and Silver are Collapsing

Gold is down more than $300 or roughly 16% in the past few weeks. Silver has lost nearly 40% in the same time period and the mining companies have also been hit hard. This decline in precious metals has been driven by funds scrambling for liquidity, the CME hiking margin rates and a stronger U.S. dollar. Many also suspect that the banks helped to manipulate the price lower in order to cover as many of their underwater short positions as possible. JPMorgan and their cohorts control the paper markets and can use their leverage to manipulate the spot price to whatever level they want in the short term. This is done via “stuffing” trades and using a variety of other methods to make the markets believe that there is considerably more selling pressure than actually exists. This is particularly profitable as options expiration is this week and the current smack down will leave most options expiring worthless, in addition to providing an opportunity to exit short positions.

But despite the apparent manipulation, JPMorgan has been woefully unsuccessful at suppressing the price in the long term. After all, gold is still up 25% and silver 40% in the past 12 months!

Investors have to determine whether we are entering a new deflationary chapter that will result in a prolonged period of depressed prices for gold and silver, or whether this is another short-term correction and buying opportunity. While I am usually quick to view these dips as excellent buying opportunities, any number of events could push the global economic system over the edge. In such a scenario, investors will likely continue to dump precious metals and mining shares, throwing out the baby with the bathwater in a panic. But the monetary metals are likely to bounce back quickly and the downside risk at this point seems rather limited.

If the market does not fall apart quite yet and the Bernank decides to announce another massive stimulus, gold and silver are going to spike to new highs in no time. This is the scenario that most investors have been waiting for, although the electorate has lost their appetite for such bailouts and the political will has all but dried up. Still, more QE and bank bailouts will be necessary to avoid financial collapse in the short term, so my bet is that we will continue to see quantitative easing, even if it isn’t announced officially by such a name.

No matter how our central economic planners decide to deal with this ticking time bomb, I’d rather be holding gold and silver than any other asset class. They have been money for thousands of years, have held their purchasing power under a variety of adverse conditions and have proven to be an effective safe haven asset. Safety should be a growing priority for your investments these days. First Mayor Bloomberg predicted riots would hit the streets of America and now Geithner has hinted at the possibility of bank runs:

 “The threat of cascading default, bank runs, and catastrophic risk must be taken off the table, as otherwise it will undermine all other efforts, both within Europe and globally,” the Treasury chief said. “Decisions as to how to conclusively address the region’s problems cannot wait until the crisis gets more severe.”

While cash might be king during uncertain times, the only form of money that I am holding is the precious type. If you have been waiting for an opportunity to buy precious metals and mining stocks on a dip, I think this will prove to be an excellent entry point. With the world aflame and protests finally spreading to America, this is a good time to get positioned and prepared for uncertain times ahead.

With strong input from newsletter "Guide to Preparing For Crisis", that I subscribe to.

For My Sajha Gold Bugs.
With Love sprinkled with some Gold Dust
Nas Bro

Posted on 09-28-11 8:37 PM     [Snapshot: 3365]     Reply [Subscribe]
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what would you buy or suggest,
maple, eagle or krugerrand ???

Posted on 09-28-11 11:40 PM     [Snapshot: 3456]     Reply [Subscribe]
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Bittertruth bro,
I don't own gold coins.

I own this.

Gold Grains. Premium is low on this than the coins or the biscuits.

But I own lot of silver biscuits.

Posted on 09-29-11 12:39 AM     [Snapshot: 3483]     Reply [Subscribe]
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oh, I didn't know you could buy grains like that. and, I've been buying in coins paying $50-70 premium each time. I've box full of silver coins too. But biscuits look cool though.
Today was record low in months like almost 1586 per ounce gold and the shop where I usually buy gold, the guy was pretty hesitant and after talking about 5-10 minutes, he sold me 4 eagle coins. first he said he don't have any maple coins when I asked for it, then he wanted me to sell krugerrand , it's only after I inquired about eagle, that he stretched his forhead skin and unwillingly sold 'em to mey. I could understand that he wanted to make some money off those coins but due to this volatile situation he was asking me if I could come next week. And, I wasn't ready to leave because I knew the iron was hot and that was the right time to hammer it.
So, basically, they say maple is pure 999.99 but they've alloyed eagle coins. I  just wanted to know how others feel about it .
But anyway, thanks for showing me how you buy gold.
And thanks for all those gold knowledge you've been bestowing upon everyone here.

Last edited: 29-Sep-11 12:40 AM

Posted on 09-29-11 8:48 AM     [Snapshot: 3545]     Reply [Subscribe]
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Holy C***, even if I were investing in gold, coins would be the lowest on my list. You people need to do some serious research instead of blindly wasting your money!

Posted on 09-29-11 9:16 AM     [Snapshot: 3561]     Reply [Subscribe]
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Thank you bittertruth bro.
I think gold grain has a little hassle while selling as the buyer needs to check for it's purity unlike gold coins.  Do the gold coins come certified ? I thought of buying Credit Suisse biscuits which is certified but then like you said preimum is too high. I am hoping to add some more metals as I am seeing a buying opportunity.

Anyways, with your sweet words, I am making myself believe that You are voting for Dr. Ron Paul, this time around.

Ani |||-||| bro, could you tell us why having gold coins is not worthy ? I thought gold is gold no matter what form it is ? Is there any specific reason that you would like to point out? Is it the cost or quality ? I would take that metal in whatever form over any kind of colorful papers (currencies), at any give second.

But yes, cash does rule the day. It's liquid but it's not "MONEY". Gold is the real "MONEY".

Zimbabwe should be a good lesson.

Posted on 09-29-11 10:05 AM     [Snapshot: 3589]     Reply [Subscribe]
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I have not posted in sajha in a while, but I visit every once in a while to see what the current hot topics amongst my brethren are. I felt compelled to write something on this, as it is something I am also familiar with professionally. 

While I agree to the long term growth prospects of precious metals specifically  (and commodities in general), I dont think it is wise to overweight portfolios in such a volatile segment despite the potential growth. It definitely creates that additional 'lustre" (no pun intended) to an investor's portfolio, and NAS has provided a very good illustration as to why, but abandoning a classic asset allocation strategy to create a largely one dimensional model is definitely not something I see as a better fit.

Maybe changing the classic asset allocation model to incorporate some of these 'hedges' to currency (the Paulson strategy of denominating all investments in gold, or adding more foreign currency exposure, for example)  will serve to the benefit of the investor in this new global environment of low rates, low growth (some driven by austerity, some just unwilling to grow)  and possibly high inflation (hyper Stagflation?). BUT overweighting a sector that was dormant, even negative for almost 30 years before making a phenomenal appreciation in value over the past 3 years, in my humble opinion carries more risk than reward.

These are just my thoughts though.

Posted on 09-29-11 10:40 AM     [Snapshot: 3611]     Reply [Subscribe]
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Excellent Analysis Jhyalicha bro, and I really appreciate your outlook especially with this line "BUT overweighting a sector that was dormant, even negative for almost 30 years before making a phenomenal appreciation in value over the past 3 years, in my humble opinion carries more risk than reward." You are absolutely right in a sense that if you do not have a solid knowledge on this thing, you should not really be investing on precious metals, again I am emphasizing on if you do not have a solid knowledge. So I would request anyone to have a good understanding of what you are putting your money on before investing in this unprecedentedly volatile market.

But bro, you really have to consider the facts behind the scenes and how the gold market was manipulated by the Rothschild and his cohorts to crash that peak of 80s. It sounds like a giant conspiracy but it is a conspiracy. And the same conspiracy is still going on with JP Morgan manipulating silver market with short positions. So if we consider the peak of 80s, we are no where at that peak currently and many analysts and economists believe we will peak at the same level. When it peaks, the Gold will reach anywhere between $5000 - $10,000 ounces. I have written volumes on this in this post as well. That will be something interesting to read.

Thank you again for your feedback. I really appreciated to know that this post "compelled" to write you. It just makes me happy to know that you deemed this post worthy of your precious time.

Thanks bro.

Posted on 09-29-11 11:35 AM     [Snapshot: 3650]     Reply [Subscribe]
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NAS bro, Ron Paul unlike other republicans seems honest with his words, lets see what happens. I don't agree with all what he says but I have been lately contemplating his thoughts and it's good .. to be honest. more exposure he gets, more we gotta listen to him and it feels good. I hope it's not just talk .
I'm going to be neutral in this present context :|

Eagle is more cashable in US market. But I'd prefer maple due to it's purity. So, what do you mean certified gold? I test it many places to make sure it's purity. And, I'm confident about it. Do gold seller give you certificate as if showing the owner of that PM??

Posted on 09-29-11 12:20 PM     [Snapshot: 3691]     Reply [Subscribe]
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He He Bittertruth bro,
It's a good sign. From Barack Obama Radical to --------> "Neutral" ----> and then after some more doses of Dr. Ron Paul from me in Sajha, you might as well write -------------> "My admiration for Dr. Ron Paul is Absolute"

I am trying harder...just to let you know.

Bro, I really don't have much ideas about gold coins as I have not bought any but yes the biscuits come certified by an assayer. They have a certificate number in the package about it's purity.

Something like below. So it's much more easier to sell it.

Posted on 09-30-11 12:17 AM     [Snapshot: 3797]     Reply [Subscribe]
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coins come like this :D no certificate but various dealers verified it as pure :D so, I'm glad. 

Posted on 09-30-11 1:39 AM     [Snapshot: 3825]     Reply [Subscribe]
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Absolutely Beautiful !!!
It's so pleasing to the eyes. Oh the sweet fragrance of the Gold and Silver, God's money unlike the filthy paper money of Man.
So pure, so eternal, so earthly yet so heavenly.
My sweet gold and silver.

Bro, did you recently start investing on it ? I am really happy to see people realizing the economic reality and investing some of their hard earned savings in the real assets. I wish more and more people jump on the bandwagon when this is the right opportunity to buy as prices are falling.

Loved your collections.

Thanks for sharing bro.

Posted on 09-30-11 10:33 AM     [Snapshot: 3959]     Reply [Subscribe]
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It's been a year bro, not like you who must have now sack full of gold and silver:D 
But, yeah, I'm trying to get hold of these metals.
But thanks you liked the video.

Posted on 09-30-11 11:00 AM     [Snapshot: 3972]     Reply [Subscribe]
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Ha Ha,
not like "sack full". Mine is also just a humble beginning. I am still a student. But I really wished I had purchased silver when it was around $5 in 2000 !! Damn !!

But then ten years from now when the price of silver will be around $500 ounce, I will be thanking myself.

He He He.

Posted on 09-30-11 3:13 PM     [Snapshot: 4027]     Reply [Subscribe]
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If you guys can afford it, go for credit suisse, the premium might be a little higher but it is worth it cause it is the easiest to sell. The only problem is that a lot of stores don't carry it, you might have to buy it online.

Posted on 09-30-11 6:29 PM     [Snapshot: 4082]     Reply [Subscribe]
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