King of Nepal's seizure of power a big gamble: analysts

35 minutes ago South Asia - AFP



KATHMANDU (AFP) - Nepal's King Gyanendra has taken a huge gamble by seizing power in a bid to end a bloody and brutal Maoist rebellion that has tortured the Himalayan kingdom for eight years, analysts say.


AFP/File Photo






If he succeeds, the status of the monarchy will be reinforced to the detriment of democracy; his failure could lead to the ancient monarchy's collapse, they say.


King Gyanendra fired the government on Tuesday, assumed all powers and declared a state of emergency, citing the previous administration's failure to bring peace to a country gripped by civil war since 1996.


The conflict has killed more than 11,000 people and ravaged a population that has suffered at the hands of rebels and government troops alike.


War-weary, ordinary Nepalis interviewed in the capital Kathmandu said that if they had to choose between peace and democracy, for which many have been pressing, they would choose peace.


"The population has been victimised, people are less concerned with politics. They want first peace should prevail," said a pro-monarchy analyst.


The government that King Gyanendra sacked has come in for much criticism, like every administration in place since the establishment of a constitutional monarchy in 1990 when several political parties were allowed to operate.


"All the governments have collapsed, all the parties quarrel, corruption has become institutionalised," said an official with a human rights group.


"Nepalese cannot believe in democracy," he said.


In the king's favour is that the Maoists have for months been demanding direct negotiations with him, saying he has always been the sole source of power.


Their demand is ironic since the Maoists, split by hardline and moderate factions, are fighting for a communist republic to replace the monarchy. But King Gyanendra's place at the head of the new government that he has appointed could lead the way to such talks.


"If the king can solve the Maoist problem, the Nepalese will like him and nobody will go for democracy," said an employee of a nongovernment organisation.


And, said a Western diplomat, in a world focussed on the fight against terrorism, "the Nepalis, like the international community, are more lenient even if their rights are suppressed."


While the king holds many cards in this gamble, there are some stacked against him.


He has to tackle not just the Maoists and the opposition, but also the international community which has been strongly critical of his seizure of power and could resort to suspending vital aid to press its demand for a return to democracy.


And the king will no longer be able to hide behind successive governments for the failure to find peace with the Maoists, as he has until now.


Previous governments served as a "fuse" for the king, said a Nepali journalist. But now, "If he fails, people will blame the king," he said.





The task facing King Gyanendra is tough: find peace, organise elections and reestablish democracy in three years as he has promised, all the while developing the economy of the country, one of the poorest in the world.

And after all the sacrifices they have had to make, the people of Nepal will judge him harshly if he cannot succeed.

"If he fails, he will have to find a justification, will be very unpopular, very weak, he has taken a very big risk," said the NGO employee.

Should peace not be established and the situation in the country continue to deteriorate, the king will have no choice but to backtrack, said the diplomat.

"He will have to give way and it could mean the end of the monarchy because he will have to find another solution: it could be putting power in the hands of the military, a total victory for the Maoists, or democracy."