The initial results of the CA election shows that NCP-Maoist will win more than half of the constituency. They are winning at the cost of UML and NC. Overcoming the odds, NCP Maoist have already won more than half a century of constituency whese as the winner of last poll UML are lagging behind in second position with 17 and NC the so called oldest, biggest and major ruling party of the country in lagging at third place.
If we analyse the area where NC have won, we can clearly see that they have won only because of the advantage of two strong communist party fighting and cutting each others vote. Despite winning 6 out of 10 in Kathmandu, NC seems to have won all due to that advantage ( except Kathmanu 1). NC have the disadvantage of its few vetran leaders leaving the party just before the election and joining the Terai parties too. NC have been winning only at those places where it was classically Communist strong hold. NC was thought to have this advantage and was thought to be the leading party in CA.
If we analyse the major UML casualties, they have only lost because of the same reason that NC have been winning. UML have won more constituency than NC. Everybdy knew that UML would be the among second or third in the race. But winning just 17 out of 89 resulted constituency shows that they are the biggest looser after NC. Their policy during the Kings direct regime may have hurt its supporters feeling.
If, Forum and other Terai party gone to the election as a single party or atleast have some agreement in place, I have no doubt that they would have won almost all Terai. But still. Forum, the original terai party seems to have won the publics feeling. And why not, as they are the first to raise the voice of Madhes. They are among those who have been the centre of ethnic revolution in the country, which was urgently needed to save the country.
Other parties like RaPraPa, Janamoracha, Sadhvawana ( I wont take it as hardcore terai party) who had won few seats during previous election will hardly remain as party after this poll. This is only due to their power centered politics during the last decade. These were the major parties who were selling themselves to bring the government down. RaPraPa, they had won 20 seats in previous election almost 10% of the total. RaPraPa with some very renowed leader from Panchyat system and hardcore Royalist be better of from politics now as Monarchy is being abolished from the country.
Nepal is now heading for Federal Republic. This may be the demand of the general public as we can see the two major communist party inside top three and having almost 75% communist representative in the parliament. Nepal is giving the message to the world that communist doesnot always have to use power to win peoples heart. Nepalese communists are DEMOCRATIC COMMUNISTS. This term may not sound very fimiliar but will be a big word for all the communist allround the world. Nepal already had ELECTED COMMUNIST PRIME MINSITER almost a decade ago, and now I can see ELECTED COMMUNIST PRESIDENT in making.
I dont mind anything, if that will bring peace, stability development and poverty allevation in the country, may the come from DEMOCRATIC COMMUNISTS, SOCIALISTS, or even the ROYALISTS.
JAYA NEPAL
I fully agree with gyanguru ji's analysis. NC benefited
from the split in left votes between the UML and the Maoists. If the two left
parties had formed an alliance NC would been thrown into the dustbin of
history. The same fate would have befallen NC if the party had not merged back
in October (good timing). From the results thus far the UML probably would have
benefited more from the left alliance esp in Kathmandu-2 & Rautahat-6 
The election results suggest,
for better or for worse, that Nepal
is now a de-facto communist country.
I think this election will lead to a major re-alignment of party politics in Nepal. NC will
probably survive intact because it is the party on the right i.e. an
alternative to the Communist left - also India
does not want to lose its only vassal in Nepal . But the party won't get
rejuvenated to its old status as the dominant political force until the old
leaders give way to newer/younger ones. Given NC's leaders' penchant to view
themselves indispensable, this might take a while. Also the
Koiralas in NC will have to learn to earn their way up and not take NC
leadership as their birth-right.
As for the UML, it is no longer the ONLY dominant legitimate left party. That
will certainly lead to an identity crisis, and my guess is that until the party
finds a new way to position itself between the Maoists (leftist nationalist)
and NC (rightist India-suckers), it will not be able to return to its old
status - it could possibly fold into the Maoist camp.
The election results also show that parties based purely on ethnicity and
region have not fared well except perhaps MPRF which is good for the country in
the long-run. This suggests that the major parties have been able to co-opt
ethnic & regional votes (btw I am a Janajati myself); obviously more work
is needed on the madheshi front. I kind of disagree (given the election
results) with gyanguru ji's view that if madhesi
parties had formed an alliance, they would have swept the region because
wherever MPRF have won, the 2nd and 3rd place holders are either NC, UML or
Maoists. The RPPs, the RJPs and all the alphabet soup of parties will now cease
to exist in any viable form but there will be jokers in those parties who
run in elections.
I will repeat my mantra, "so far so good, let's see what happens
next".
Jai Nepal,
Lal Salam, Whatever...
