When the Bubble Bursts, Consider the Anti-Bubble

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Historically, the biggest stock market returns came in the fastest-growing economies. But that pattern changed in recent years, as investors chased technology at the expense of everything else. The highest returns came in slow-growth countries such as Taiwan. The lowest came in fast-growing economies like the Philippines. The reason: Taiwan is a tech-driven economy, the Philippines is not. But as big tech begins to crack, that behavior is beginning to change. Stock markets from the Philippines to Indonesia have started to emerge from anti-bubbles. And in the United States, sound industries that had been left in the dust by the tech giants are starting to make a comeback among investors, too, including telecommunications, real estate and consumer staples. It is not clear where they go from here, but it is not unusual for stocks caught in an anti-bubble one decade to perform well the next. In the 1980s, Japan was widely predicted to be the next dominant economic superpower. Though it accounted for only 15 percent of global economic output, Japan was sucking in nearly half of all the money invested in stock markets worldwide. The United States, where the economy was almost twice as large and growing robustly, was struggling in vain to escape the shadow cast by Japan. It was trapped in that era’s anti-bubble. By the end of the decade, however, the Japan bubble had popped and the United States was poised to take center stage. Anti-bubbles share one thing with bubbles: They don’t last. Eventually, people recognize that prices are out of whack, and adjust accordingly. They go back to looking for inexpensive growth stories, and find them among the forgotten countries and companies.Forgot to add the link... https://www.nytimes.com/2018/1...   Last edited: 01-Jan-19 02:04 PM

traax · Jan 1, 2019 12:06 PM · 233 views

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