highlight of the interview -- "Stan Druckenmiller is a legend in the investing world. He is a multi-billionaire, and in over 30 years of managing money, he never had a down year. He averaged 30% a year! Quite simply one of the best who ever played the game. Here are two snippets from an interview he recently did with Real Vision. Everything for me has never been about earnings, has never been about politics, it's always about liquidity." They're all (Japanese Central Bank, ECB, Fed) going in the same direction, which is why I made the (short to market) bet in June and July. It is going to be the shrinkage of liquidity that triggers this thing. And frankly, it has already triggered this in emerging markets. And that is kind of where it always starts. What I haven't seen yet, and where I think we should see it before we see it in the equity markets, and God knows, talk about a crazy-priced market, it's the credit market... and it's amazing... probably since the 1880s-1890s, this is the most disruptive economic market in history, there are hardly any bankruptcies. So that Warren Buffett line about swimming naked when the tide goes out? There are probably so many zombies (companies) swimming out there, and there is going to be some level of liquidity that triggers it... who knows, it might start with Tesla. Summarized in this article which was posted a while back https://seekingalpha.com/artic...

traax · Dec 9, 2018 4:00 PM

I am surprised this post has over 600 views in less than 2 days...I guess people here are smart...as following the best in any games is the way to learn best practices...keep it up ppl..all the best

traax · Dec 9, 2018 4:01 PM

Here is the transkript of the interview..You can read word by word while you hear the interview...(haven't verified if the transkript covers all the interview but here it is) Transkript: The Kiril Sokoloff Interviews: Stanley Druckenmiller Featuring: Stanley Druckenmiller Published Date: September 28th, 2018 Length: 01:24:27 Synopsis: Investment visionary Kiril Sokoloff is embarking on a series of exceptional interviews from his personal contacts for Real Vision. In the second episode of his series, he sits down with a revered titan of the investment world: Stanley Druckenmiller. Druckenmiller has an unrivaled track record that spans many decades. But what might be most incredible is that even whilst becoming one of the world’s most successful money managers, Druckenmiller has also managed to maintain an incredibly balanced and happy life. This interview provides a unique opportunity to learn the previously unheard secrets of an investment legend. Filmed on September 6, 2018 in New York. Kiril Sokoloff is the chairman & founder of 13D Global Strategy & Research. To find out more about 13D Publications, visit 13d.com. Topics: Career, Macro, Monetary Policy Tags: Dusquene 13D Global Research & Strategy Video Link: https://www.realvision.com/rv/... The content and use of this transkription is intended for the use of registered users only. The transkription represents the contributor’s personal views and is for general information only. It is not intended to amount to specific investment advice on which you should rely. We will not be liable to any user for any loss or damage arising under or in connection with the use or reliance of the transkription. September 28th, 2018 – www.realvision.com Kiril Sokoloff Interviews: Stanley Druckenmiller Raoul Pal: Hi. I’m Raoul Pal. I’m the CEO of Real Vision. And it’s my pleasure to personally introduce one of most incredible conversations that I’ve ever seen or we’ve ever had on Real Vision, and it’s led by my good friend Kiril Sokoloff. Kiril is one of the most legendary people in the investment research business. You can see by the quality of the guests that he brings to Real Vision that his contacts in the finance industry and the wider world are completely unparalleled. And this time, Kiril is going to do something extraordinary for us. In this episode, he’s going to interview one of the greatest investors of all time, Stanley Druckenmiller. Stan has perhaps the best 30-year track record in money management history. He’s compounded over 30% returns, and he’s never had a down year. Over 120 quarters, he’s only lost money in five. I mean, how is this even possible? How has he managed to make money day after day, year after year, decade after decade? That’s a question that nobody’s ever been able to answer. That is, until now. You see, Stanley Druckenmiller has never given an interview like this before. And in this incredible conversation, Stan tells Kiril how he was able to build that track record, how he’s operating in this new world of distorted price signals, and the opportunities and risks that he says lie ahead. It’s a truly extraordinary conversation that every investor will want to watch and then return to time and time again. There’s so much learning in this. So now, in the second episode of our Kiril Sokoloff series, please enjoy the full conversation with Stanley Druckenmiller. Kiril Sokoloff: Stan, it’s a great pleasure to have you here. Stanley Druckenmiller: Great to be here, Kiril. I’ve enjoyed your work for many, many years, so I’m excited about the opportunity. KS: Thank you. Well, we are too. We’ve been friends for 25 years. Both of us are very low profile people. We avoid publicity. And thank you for trusting me to do this. What I really want to drill down on is that incredible brain of yours that’s created this phenomenal track record that is, really, the best in history– 30 years performance managing outside money, never had a down year; 120 quarters, only five were down; 30% compounded over 30 years– how did you do it, and to try to understand the mindset approach to intelligence that enabled you to do that. And secondly, to take that and bring it forward to today’s complexity– how you look at the world, what challenges, what opportunities, how are you operating differently given the fact that algos are running the markets, free money has destroyed price signals. And third, to discuss Stan Druckenmiller’s other passions– your family, your extracurricular activities, and your philanthropy, which you do in a very low key way, which, of course, is the best way to do it. September 28th, 2018 – www.realvision.com Kiril Sokoloff Interviews: Stanley Druckenmiller So let me start off by asking you a question on your balanced life. People in our business tend to be very focused and very driven, but I wouldn’t say that not that many of them are happy. And you’re a happy man. You’ve got a balanced life. You’re one of the great philanthropists in America. You’ve got a beautiful, evolved, spiritual wife who you love. You’ve got three lovely daughters who are all successful. And you have this balanced life with this incredible performance, and you’re a happy man. How do you do it? SD: That’s kind of you to say. The balanced life is the key. And in my case, Fiona and I are both very private people, so we don’t really go out on the social scene in New York at all. We might go to three events a year, whereas I think most of my peers might go to three a week. And that frees up a lot of time. I had the benefit of a very highly intelligent, creative wife who’s now had four different careers– she repots herself about every 10 years– who, after my children were born, she gave up everything to raise those children. And she did it in a very intense creative ways. She used to have this thing called special time, where each child, one day a week, for two or three hours after school, could go anywhere in New York and any activity with her, because she thought it was important with sibling rivalry to have individual time with each. So it all sort of starts with her. And then I would really weigh in on the weekends. And maybe because I married a little late with her, which was when I was 35, I was successful enough at the time and had acquired enough knowledge that I was able to spend most of my time with the kids on the weekends. If it had been my 20s, I think it would have been a disaster. That’s been a very, very important part of the balance. It’s interesting where– someone asked me– oh, Fiona and I talked about the difference between men and women and their response to their children. And you have to understand our children are 28, 27, and 25. And even today, when she has full time job, she’s running a business, she says the first hour of her day is spent thinking of all the things she’s going to do for the children that day, through texts and email she’s gotten– and arranging it– it’s the first thing she thinks about. Of course, the first thing I think about is the euro and the yen. And I love my children, but it’s just it’s a whole different mindset. And I’ve been a huge beneficiary of that. And one of my early mentors said, with children, if you get the first five years right, you’re rewarded the rest of your life. And if you got them wrong, you’re tortured the rest of your life. KS: That’s very true. Very true. September 28th, 2018 – www.realvision.com Kiril Sokoloff Interviews: Stanley Druckenmiller SD: Fiona extended the five to about 20 years, but having a happy family provides a whole lot of happiness and a whole lot of balance. So I think that’s pretty much been the key. And that’s freed up the extra time to do some physical activities as well as the philanthropy you mentioned. KS: We’re all worried about entitlement for our kids. And we’re always struggling with that. How did you deal with it? SD: You know, that is such a fascinating question. Fiona and I had a totally different philosophy on that. She felt no holds bar in giving the kids material stuff, and there was no reason to hide our wealth from them. I thought she was crazy, and this was going to be a disaster. But it was her area, and I deferred to her. I’ve never heard her say no to those kids on anything except video games. It’s the only thing that was really heavily discouraged and she said no to. And I guess through osmosis or observing the parents’ values, or whatever, somehow strangely they all ended up being high achievers. We never, ever talked to them about philanthropy or charity or giving back, and yet they’ve all done stuff very actively to help the disadvantaged. I’m not sure how or why it all happened, but I guess it starts, again, with the mother that was with them so much time and taught them values. But it’s bizarre, because I’ll never forget in the third grade, we had a teacher review with our oldest child. She wasn’t there. And the teacher wanted to know what Fiona had done, because the other wealthy kids were all bragging how they had country houses and this and that. And she said that Sarah, our oldest daughter, would never, ever talk about any of that, and wanted to know how we get schooled her in that. But it was never, ever brought up. KS: Interesting. SD: We’ve never hid their wealth from them. So Fiona kind of broke every rule in the book that you would read about in dealing with this subject, but things have worked out extremely well. KS: Congratulations. Nothing like a happy man and a happy family. So moving on to the world that we’re living in, this has been an especially volatile year. We’ve got a new Fed chair, we have possible contagion in emerging markets, we have a huge new fiscal stimulus in the US, which is distorting things, and we have a very aggressive foreign policy and trade policy on the part of the United States. So taking all that and whatever else you’re focused on, what are you really thinking about? Where is your focus right now? SD: Yeah, well, since free money was instituted, I have really struggled. I haven’t had any down years since I started the family office, but thank you for quoting the 30-year record. I don’t even know how I did that when I look back and I look at today. But I probably made about 70% of my money during that time in currencies and bonds, and that’s been pretty much squished and become a very challenging area, both of them, as a profit center. September 28th, 2018 – www.realvision.com Kiril Sokoloff Interviews: Stanley Druckenmiller So while I started in equities, and that was my bread and butter on my first three or four years in the business, I evolved in other areas. And it’s a little bit of back to the future, the last eight or nine years, where I’ve had to refocus on the equity market. And I also have bear-itis, because I made– my highest absolute returns were all in bear markets. I think my average return in bear markets was well over 50%. So I’ve had a bearish bias, and I’ve been way too cautious the last, say, five or six years. And this year is no exception. I came into the year with a very, very challenging puzzle, which is rates are too low worldwide. You have negative real rates. And yet you have balance sheets being expanded by central banks, at the time, of a trillion dollars a year, which I knew by the end of this year was going to go to zero because the US was obviously going to go from printing money and QE to letting $50 billion a month, starting actually this month, run off on the balance sheet. I figured Europe, which is doing $30 billion euros a month, would go to zero. So the question to me was, if you go from $1 trillion in central bank buying a year to zero, and you get that rate of change all happening within a 12-month period, does that not matter if global rates are still what I would call inappropriate for the circumstances? And those circumstances you have outlined perfectly. You pretty much have had robust global growth, with massive fiscal stimulus in the United States, where the unemployment rate is below 4. If you came down from Mars, you would probably guess the Fed funds rate would be 4 or 5/ and you have a president screaming because it’s at 175. I, maybe because I have a bearish bias, kind of had this scenario that the first half would be fine, but then by July, August, you’d start to discount the shrinking of the balance sheet. I just didn’t see how that rate of change would not be a challenge for equities, other than PEs, and that’s because margins are at an all time record. We’re at the top of the valuation on any measures you look, except against interest rates. And at least for two or three months, I’ve been dead wrong. So that was sort of the overwhelming macro view. Interestingly, some of the things that tend to happen early in a monetary tightening are responding to the QE shrinkage. And that’s obviously, as you’ve cited, emerging markets. So the cocktail I mixed up for here was to continue– and this has been going on for three or four years– my firm to continue on the disruptors– that would be the cloud-based companies, the internet companies– to be short, the disrupted, which would be things like retail, staples, that kind of stuff; and with regard to China, to continued on who I thought would be the winners in the Chinese internet. It’s been a below average year, mainly because the Chinese internets, which were very, very good to me the last two or three years, have been pretty much a disaster this year. I gave an interview at Sun Valley not this year but last year and said that I thought the Chinese internets were at less risk of government regulation than the US internet, and everyone in the audience howled with laughter. And I said, no, I’m serious because they’re partnering with the government September 28th, 2018 – www.realvision.com Kiril Sokoloff Interviews: Stanley Druckenmiller because they have all this information that they hand over to the government. The internet has been the greatest friend the Communist Party could ever imagine. Whereas 15 years ago, I would have told you the internet was going to destroy them. Well, at least on the gaming side with Tencent, I’ve been dead wrong, and it’s tended to drag that whole group down. The other thing that happened two or three months ago, mysteriously, my retail and staple shorts, that have just been fantastic relative to my tech longs, just have had this miraculous recovery. And I’ve also struggled mightily– and this is really concerning to me. It’s about the most trouble I’ve been about my future as a money manager maybe ever is what you mentioned– the canceling of price signals. But it’s not just the central banks. If it was just the central banks, I could deal with that. But one of my strengths over the years was having deep respect for the markets and using the markets to predict the economy, and particularly using internal groups within the market to make predictions. And I think I was always open minded enough and had enough humility that if those signals challenged my opinion, I went back to the drawing board and made sure things weren’t changing. These algos have taken all the rhythm out of the market and have become extremely confusing to me. And when you take away price action versus news from someone who’s used price action news as their major disciplinary tool for 35 years, it’s tough, and it’s become very tough. I don’t know where this is all going. If it continues, I’m not going to return to 30% a year any time soon, not that I think I might not anyway, but one can always dream when the free money ends, we’ll go back to a normal macro trading environment. KS: Well, let’s talk about the algos. We haven’t seen the algos sell. We’ve seen the algos buy. We saw a little bit of it in February, and there was some concentrated selling. We saw it in China in 2015, which was really scary. Most people weren’t focused on that, but I was, like you were too. And they’re programmed to sell if the market’s down 2%. Machines are running, can’t be stopped. A huge amount of trading and money is being managed that way. And we’ve been operating in a bull market and a strong economy. What happens when it’s a bear market and a bad economy? And will things get out of hand? So knowing that, and knowing the risk of that any moment unfolding, January-February just came like this. How are you protecting yourself and insulating– what are you watching for that that might happen? SD: It’s a little bit like after 9/11 waiting for the next terrorist act, in which case you would have missed are a roaring bull market for the next six years, because you’re sitting there because Dick Cheney told your neighbor you’re supposed to move out of New York. I’m just going to trust my instincts and technical analysis to pick up the stuff. September 28th, 2018 – www.realvision.com Kiril Sokoloff Interviews: Stanley Druckenmiller But I will say that– and I proved it to my own detriment the last three or four years– the minute the risk reward gets a little dodgy, I get more cautious than I probably would have been without this in the background. But I want to be clear that the major challenge for the algos, for me, is not some horrible market event. I can actually see myself getting caught in that, but I could also see myself, perhaps, taking advantage of it. The challenge for me is these groups that used to send me signals, it doesn’t mean anything anymore. I gave one example this year. So the pharmaceuticals, which you would think are the most predictable earning streams out there– so there shouldn’t be a lot of movement one way or the other– from January to May, they were massive underperformers. In the old days, I’d look at that relative strength and I’ll go, this group is a disaster. OK. Trump’s making some noises about drug price in the background. But they clearly had chart patterns and relative patterns that suggest this group’s a real problem. They were the worst group of any I follow from January to May, and with no change in news and with no change in Trump’s narrative, and, if anything, an acceleration in the US economy, which should put them more toward the back of the bus than the front of the bus because they don’t need a strong economy. They have now been about the best group from May until now. And I could give you 15 other examples. And that’s the kind of stuff that didn’t used to happen. And that’s the major challenge of the algos for me, not what you’re talking about. Now, that might be a challenge for society and the investing public in general. And yes, I can get caught like anybody else in that. But yeah, there’s probably some degree of having one foot out the door that I otherwise might not have, because I do know this is in the background. You do know, though– I read– I skimmed the article, but there was something in the paper about how we’re taking more measures to put in circuit breakers, whatever they call those things, to stop the phenomena you’re talking about. It doesn’t mean they’ll be effective, but— KS: So how are the algos operating? Why are they distorting the price signals? SD: Well, I’ll just, again, tell you why it’s so challenging for me. A lot of my style is you build a thesis, hopefully that no one else has built; you sort of put some positions on; and then when the thesis starts to evolve, and people get on and you see the momentum start to change in your favor, then you really go for it. You pile into the trade. It’s what my former partner George Soros was so good at. We call it– if you follow baseball, it’s a slugging percentage, as opposed to batting average. Well, a lot of these algos apparently are based on standard deviation models. So just when you would think you’re supposed to pile on and lift off, their models must tell them, because you’re three standard deviations from where you’re supposed to be, they come in with these massive programs that go against the beginning of the trend. And if you really believe in yourself, it’s an September 28th, 2018 – www.realvision.com Kiril Sokoloff Interviews: Stanley Druckenmiller opportunity. But if you’re a guy that uses price signals and price action versus news, it makes you question your scenario. So they all have many, many different schemes they use, and different factors that go in. And if there’s one thing I’ve learned, currencies probably being the most obvious, every 15 or 20 years, there is regime change. So currency is traded on current account until Reagan came in and then they traded on interest differentials. And about five years, 10 years ago, they started trading on risk-on, risk-off. And a lot of these algos are built on historical models. And I think a lot of their factors are inappropriate because they’re missing– they’re in an old regime as opposed to a new regime, and the world keeps changing. But they’re very disruptive if price action versus news is a big part of your process, like it is for me. KS: So how does that play out? Is this going to get worse, or does it blow up? How do you see it? SD: I pray it blows up, but I don’t see that happening because money managers are so bad, I assume they’re going to outperform 90% to 95% of the money managers. I think the– I don’t know whether you read Kasparov’s book, but he thinks like the ultimate chess player. It’s not the machine, it’s the machine with the man and his intuition using the machine heavily. I think there’s always going to be five or 10– maybe not a lot more– humans who the best machine in the world, the AlphaGo type thing, will never beat that human as long as he’s using the machine. And they need to be used, and they need to be understood. I can’t see me passing my money onto a machine, but I think I’d be an idiot not to know the effect these machines are having. And frankly, using them is just one more input that I didn’t have 20 or 30 years ago. But you’ve got to understand when the signals are real and when they’re driven by them, and you got to understand the time frames. KS: Are you using machines yourself? SD: I have money with a couple of machines. It’s a very small amount of money. It’s just enough money so they send me signals when they think something dramatic is happening. And I’m early enough on the process that I don’t know my conclusion, but I assume that a lot of these machines are on the same factors. And if the machines start saying something is going to happen, they send me a notice. And that’s– to use a football term– that’s under review. I’m going to watch this for a year or two and see if they’re on to something or if they aren’t. KS: And there seems to be correlations that make no sense. SD: Yes. KS: For example, the RMB and gold are trading very closely. It makes no sense. September 28th, 2018 – www.realvision.com Kiril Sokoloff Interviews: Stanley Druckenmiller SD: Yeah. KS: And that’s very dangerous. SD: And even day to day, there’s correlations that make no sense. It’s all messed up. My great hope is, A, we get out of this ridiculous monetary regime. And when we do, things start to make sense again. I’ve always, as you know, maybe to a fault, have been a critic of the new monetary regime, which is very academically run. And I’ve always thought part of capitalism was you got to have a hurdle rate to investment. You can’t just go on these silly inflation this and that– that if you’re going to make an investment, it should have some hurdle rate. And I think taking the hurdle rate away from investments and all this stuff is causing a lot of this stuff we’re talking about. I don’t know that, but that’s my intuition. And I’m hoping that, A, we go back to some sort of normal regime sometime in the next 20 years. And then I’m hoping that the stuff you’re talking about at least diminishes greatly. But I don’t know, Kiril. I just don’t know. Like everything else, I’m open minded on it. KS: So summer of 2017, there was a hope that Kevin Warsh might run the Fed. He worked for you for seven years. I met him. He was against QE too, as you were, as I was. And unfortunately, that didn’t happen. He worked for you for seven years. SD: He still works for me. KS: He still works there. What a fantastic opportunity to have a Fed chair grounded in the real world for once. So if you were running the Fed now, what would you do? And I give the two challenges which you obviously know, but for the audience– if you don’t raise rates, asset prices continue to build, and one of your major points in the past has been the way you cause a deflation is to deflate an asset bubble that went too high. That’s been a major concern of yours and mine. On the other hand, because of the enormous rise in debt– $247 trillion, up 11% in the last year, three times global GDP– a lot of companies and countries would be bankrupt if interest rates go too high. Plus, all the malinvestment that took place as funds were forced to lend money at ridiculous rates. So how do we regularize? SD: This is really a problem. You said on low key or under the radar or wherever it is– but in every private talk I’ve given for the last five years, I’ve answered this question the same way. But it’s a much, much, much more challenging situation than five years ago for the reasons you cite. One of the more incredibly revealing things Trump said when he went after the central bank is, we shouldn’t be raising rates. Don’t they know we have all this debt to issue coming up? But it’s the chicken and the egg. The reason the debt has exploded– again, there’s no hurdle rate for investment. And when you can borrow money at zero, of course, debt is going to explode. September 28th, 2018 – www.realvision.com Kiril Sokoloff Interviews: Stanley Druckenmiller So you’re exactly right. We have this massive debt problem. If we don’t normalize, it’s going to accelerate and cause a bigger problem down the road. If we do normalize, we’re going to have a problem. And unfortunately, we’re going to have a much bigger problem than we would have if we had normalized four or five years ago. So I’m going to give you the same answer I gave at a dinner four or five years ago. I would raise rates every meeting as long as I could. And the minute you got substantial disruption, I would back off. And the sad thing is, since I made that statement, oh, my god, we’ve had these just rip roaring markets. And what I was saying is, just sneak one in every time you can. Just sneak one in. And they’ve passed up on so many golden opportunities. But the problem now– and you articulated it beautifully– is, now, the debt is so much higher, particularly in emerging markets, than it was five years ago. You’re not going to be able to raise that much more, and we’re already starting to see the consequences. But somehow, if I’m reading them correctly, which is not easy, they seem to have stumbled into, with Chairman Powell, pretty much the formula I would be doing now, although I wouldn’t be on this quarterly path. It’s way too predictable, which is, as I’m reading them– by the way, other people with just as big brains are reading in the opposite. They’re going to go every opportunity they have until you have a dramatic tightening in financial conditions. And because of the data out there, that’s how I would play it right now. You can’t just say, OK, I’m going to 3 and 1/2 or 4. No, you just sneak one in, see if they handle it– and when I say they handle it, I’m not talking about 5% or 10% correction. I’m talking about all the various measures out there that we need to look at. That’s what I would do. But it’s just kind of ridiculous with the unemployment rate at 3.8 here, and conditions where they were are everywhere, to have rates at this level. And probably the most egregious has been the ECB. And one can’t even imagine the rot that must be in those banks from malinvestment. KS: Well, I remember back in ’96– I think we were both in the same place at the contagion in emerging Asia, and I was arguing it was going to spread to all emerging countries and then come back to the United States, which it did. But it fueled– all that money came into the US and fueled the US bubble much worse than it would have been. So the question is, if we keep raising rates, is that same scenario going to happen, putting our market more at risk of higher valuations? SD: I don’t think that last blast off in NASDAQ was because of higher rates. I think it was because– if you remember, we cut in September of ’98, then we did the intermeeting cut in midOctober, and then with the market on a new high, Greenspan did one final cut at the end of October. And I remember having been bearish that summer and then doing an about face, thinking we don’t need to be easing, there’s nothing at all wrong with the American economy. And this money is probably going to flow into the US. So I think the phenomena you described has already been happening. So I think we’re somewhat well on the way. September 28th, 2018 – www.realvision.com Kiril Sokoloff Interviews: Stanley Druckenmiller It’s interesting you bring up that period, because one of the more disturbing things that Powell said in Jackson Hole was his praising of Greenspan in the late ’90s. In my opinion– and by the way, it’s all over the media what a genius he was for not hiking and letting the thing run. In my opinion, that was the original sin when the NASDAQ went to 125 times earnings, hit a dot-com bust, and then because of the dot-com bust, we offset that with the housing thing. So that started the whole thing. So I have a very– you hate to have a different opinion with the central bank consensus, because you’re not in charge of the central bank, they are, but– so no, I think the phenomena you’re talking about is already happening– that money is flowing in here. On a practitioner’s basis, we have a lottery ticket in Brazil and in South Africa, because, as we’ve seen, back in the ’90s and again now, these things can move 50%, 60%, and your risk is probably not much more than the carry. I don’t know whether I’m going to get paid, but with the monetary tightening, we’re kind of at that stage of the cycle where bombs are going off. And until the bombs go off in the developed markets, you would think the tightening will continue. And if the tightening continues, the bombs will keep going off, I would think, in emerging markets, because there was no more egregious recipient of free money than emerging markets, because you had the double whammy. A, all the vanilla money managers poured money into the place. B, you had no market constraints on the political actors. I mean, the stuff that was going on even a year or two ago– and can you imagine that Argentina issues a 100-year debt? 100 years at 7%– I can’t even remember a government surviving for five or 10 years, much less 100 years. KS: So you’ve been in tech, big tech. You’ve been right for the right reasons. How do you navigate the phenomenal oligopolies that they are, profit machines they are, with what looks like a regulatory tidal wave coming at them? And how do you decide when to get off that investment? SD: Perhaps I should have gotten off of a few weeks ago, and I missed my window. Kiril, it’s hard to figure out

traax · Dec 9, 2018 4:06 PM

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/bus... What was said in the transkript..about ECB stopping buying bonds...which means less money or liquidity in the market coming up..Get ready for market moving downward.. in coming days Just added -- 15 SPY Dec 21 2018 260.5 Put @1.94 Will see how this gambling goes

traax · Dec 13, 2018 11:23 AM

market did fall...so its been good with the puts..

traax · Dec 14, 2018 11:34 AM

market down again...sold the puts at mid $6...with pretty good gain. around $7000 gain in few days... market seems to want to continue to fall....as the puts I bought are currently selling for above $7...I thought I was smart to sell at mid $6.. but these are just paper trades..i wish they were real money .

traax · Dec 17, 2018 3:16 PM

what I bought for 1.94 is now at bid/ask 18/65/20.15 Coulda/Woulda/Shoulda made more than $25k on this trade...within a week...but only if I knew ahead of time to not sell...I was happy to sell for 6.45.... "What was said in the transkript..about ECB stopping buying bonds...which means less money or liquidity in the market coming up..Get ready for market moving downward.. in coming days Just added -- 15 SPY Dec 21 2018 260.5 Put @1.94

traax · Dec 21, 2018 3:32 PM