I wish human nature could be derived from the cause and effect analysis, which is true for the most part for science and engineering.  However, even most celebrated paper on fashion and fads cannot predict human nature.  Perhaps, in social science you could come out with at least a probability when talking about human nature in general, but the county that we are talking about is a very different case.  All they need is a sociopath like Gandhi or a psychopath like Rajani Kanth to fuel them and it could be an issue for us.

Answering your question in a nutshell. Why will the Indian government tell you what they are up to?