US Economy: A Downward Spiral?

Lato, very optimistic there. Are you long the US economy or are you long the US equities markets? There is a HUGE difference. I don't think anyone can afford to be long the US economy in the Short Run with GM and Ford needing a bailout, Indymac already facing the slum-levels, Freddie and Fannie and ALL major IBs in the doldrums...In the long run, well things are still uncertain. How would the Iran scenario play out? How would OPEC's stance play out? What are the technicals? Nothing looks good here, son. As for shorting Gold, you're lucky there. Its testing its support right now and if it goes below $885, then consider yourself in a winning position. BTW, do you even know what my soccer mom syndrome theory was??

Lato, very optimistic there. Are you long the US economy or are you long the US equities markets? There is a HUGE difference. I don't think anyone can afford to be long the US economy in the Short Run with GM and Ford needing a bailout, Indymac already facing the slum-levels, Freddie and Fannie and ALL major IBs in the doldrums...In the long run, well things are still uncertain. How would the Iran scenario play out? How would OPEC's stance play out? What are the technicals? Nothing looks good here, son. As for shorting Gold, you're lucky there. Its testing its support right now and if it goes below $885, then consider yourself in a winning position (until it tests 875). BTW, do you even know what my soccer m om syndrome theory was??

Lato, very optimistic there. Are you long the US economy or are you long the US equities markets? There is a HUGE difference. I don't think anyone can afford to be long the US economy in the Short Run with GM and Ford needing a bailout, Indymac already facing the slum-levels, Freddie and Fannie and ALL major IBs in the doldrums...In the long run, well things are still uncertain. How would the Iran scenario play out? How would OPEC's stance play out? What are the technicals? Nothing looks good here, son. As for shorting Gold, you're lucky there. Its testing its support right now and if it goes below $885, then consider yourself in a winning position (until it tests 875). BTW, do you even know what my soccer mom syndrome theory was??

How' d, yo' all! Here is an article, albeit a few days old, about an analyst from Oppenheimer and Co., Meredith Whitney who saw the abyss of the financial behemoth like Citigroup coming. On this one, she provides more insights into how deep the credit crunch (crisis) is going to run in the near future and the repercussions generated from it. The woman who called Wall Street's meltdown Star bank analyst Meredith Whitney says the economy is about to sink into a deep recession. By Jon Birger, senior writer Last Updated: August 6, 2008: 11:57 AM EDT

Last edited: 13-Aug-08 03:30 PM

HAHAHAH lato idiot, how many times do I gotta tell you that your trading strategy makes me laugh as there just is no rationale attached to your impulse rather than just click the mouse and look at an outright chart. Your risk to reward ratios are virtually non-existant...You did a total of 16 transactions and your net profit was only 600 and change?? Just shows me that you're en route to being obliterated by the market pretty soon. BTW, how much is the spreads you're paying for the trades? Looks like you'll make the clearing house real rich folks. Finally, keep posting up demo accounts and yeah, while at it, see where your trading flaws lie. I'd rather laugh than comment on your trading scenario and your statement above. Pls hide it from REAL traders like me since the cats here on sajha prolly have never traded before and you could act like you know it all in front of them...HAHAHA This is exactly the type of mentality that brings other suckers into the markets and we in IBs just make a killing outta these lil fries as the markets after all is a zero-sum game. How many times have I told you, you gotta hedge your positions instead of plainly taking outright trades. Hope you don't lose the shirt on your back. As for all you believers in the US economy. more and more articles are surfacing asking the Fed and Congress to let the markets fall and let the public know the real extent of the problem within the economy. Only then will the economy correct itself from the current scenario of recessions and mini recessions we've been facing since 2001. As per these pundits, only we've identified the problem can there be a solution and right now, the band-aid being applied to a bullet wound is defn not the way to go. It'll just prolong the pain and the recession. Damn it, give us a Depression and get over with it, so we could rebuild bigger and better!! http://finance.yahoo.com/banki... Another one which may prove what I've been thinkng all along: Is the Fed and the Congress colluding with the various economic agencies here and cooking the books to produce better than expected economic data?? Looks like something similar to the Sarbanes-Oxley needs to be created for economic-data gatherers like the Fed and its subsidiaries too as the accoutants and economists there have gotten way too smart for their own good. http://www.mindfully.org/Refor... If these pundits have their way, stocks could be in for a beating until no tomorrow!!

The best arbitrageur is one who's updated with what opportunity lies even in the remotest parts of the world and acts upon that scenario if it would even help make him/her a dollar richer. Here goes today's article that was quite insightful into matters we've been fed and over fed with daily. Hope it is interesting for those not in touch with world happenings. MONEYANDMARKETS» Thursday, August 14, 2008 YOUR BEST SOURCE FOR THE UNBIASED MARKET COMMENTARY YOU WON'T GET FROM WALL STREET [«] Money and Markets 2008 Archive View This Issue On Our Website [»] State of the World's Future by Larry Edelson Dear Subscriber, I'll discuss the state of the markets shortly. First, I'd like to discuss the state of the world's future. According to a long-term study just released by the U.S. Naval Services Department, a series of tipping points could dramatically alter the global prospects for economic growth and humanity — for the worse. Right now, for instance, fully half the world is vulnerable to social instability resulting from rising food and energy prices, lack of water, failing state governments, and pollution. 102 countries are at risk of chaos. 46 countries, comprising 2.7 BILLION people, are at risk of armed conflict with lack of adequate natural resources as the root cause for many of them. Another 56 countries, with 1.2 billion people, are at risk of severe social instability. There are now 14 ongoing wars around the world: Five in Africa, four in Asia, two in the Americas, two in the Middle East, plus the world-wide war on terrorism. And 37 countries face a food crisis due to increased demand, falling supplies, high energy prices, and global cereal stocks at 25-year lows. Nearly three billion people subsist on less than $2 a day. Due to increased demand and with global cereal stocks at 25-year lows, many countries are facing a food crisis. Some Other Facts to Consider ... — The world population today is 6.677 billion people, growing at a rate of 1.16% per annum. — The global economy had one of its best years ever in 2007, growing at 4.9% to $66 trillion in purchasing power parity (PPP). Global per-capita income grew a tad under 4%. — Yet, high levels of extreme poverty have given birth to 40 new diseases, 1,100 epidemics over the last five years, and 20 drug-resistant diseases today, a record. Worse, old diseases have re-emerged, such as cholera and yellow fever. And more than one-third of all child deaths occur in the first 28 days of life, mostly due to lack of clean, potable water. — In total, 700 million people face water scarcity today. Without drastic investment of hundreds of billions of dollar, an estimated three billion people will not have adequate water supplies by 2025. A scarcity of clean potable water will affect an estimated 3 billion people by 2025. — The world will need 50% more food within the next five years, and 100% more by 2030. — Democracy and freedom has declined over the last two years in one-fifth of the world's countries, while total military expenditures have hit $1.3 trillion per year. — There are an estimated 20,000 active nuclear weapons in the world, 1,700 tons of highly enriched uranium, and 500 tons of separated plutonium that could produce nuclear weapons. — There were over 150 reports of unauthorized use of nuclear materials per year between 2004 and 2007. — Illicit trade, corruption, and cybercrime are estimated to cost global GDP well over $2 trillion per year. — Global energy demand could double in just 20 years. Without major technological changes, fossil fuels will provide 81% of primary energy demand by 2030. No matter how you look at it, the world has its work cut out for it if we are going to improve the future for our children and grandchildren, and for billions of people around the world. Fortunately, there are some bright spots. Namely, three important ones ... #1: Governments around the world are now becoming acutely aware of the problems the world faces. And, they are sharing their knowledge more consistently in international workgroups to solve crises. #2: Super computers are now reaching levels that will be able to help solve problems at exponentially quicker rates. A computer can now perform 1.144 thousand trillion floating point operations per second with the capability to support highly complex social, environmental, medical, and economic modeling that will allow more reliable predictions of future behavior and cause and effect relationships in virtually every field of study. #3: Thanks to the Internet, a global "collective intelligence" is now forming on many of the issues confronting the world today. This enhanced global communication will speed the development of solutions through sharing of ideas and models. I have faith. I believe we can do it. But getting there won't be easy. Only massive, unprecedented investment will avert an energy crisis — by investing hundreds of billions of dollars in wind energy, geothermal, ground solar and space solar, and saltwater-based bio-fuels, and an equally massive investment in nuclear power plants. And that's why I say ... Natural Resources Will Clearly Remain In Long-Term Bull Markets Given all the above, plus the fact that central bankers and politicians around the world will always opt for growth over recession — even if they have to print unlimited supplies of money — it should be awfully clear that the bull markets in natural resources are here to stay. Indeed, according to my long-term studies and economic models, the prices of natural resources will continue higher for up to ten more years, reaching their peaks in the year 2018. "What, has Larry lost his marbles?" you ask. "Gold, oil and many other commodities are getting crushed!" Well, mark my words: The pullbacks you're now seeing in many natural resources are nothing more than normal, healthy bull market retracements. A chance for prices to consolidate, before heading higher. Just take a look at any long-term chart of any commodity. You'll see what I mean. Every single one of them remains in a long-term bull market. Also consider the following ... So what if gold falls back to $800, or even $700? At $700, it's still nearly triple its price of 2000! So what if oil falls back to $100, or even $70 a barrel? At $70 oil, it's still nearly 500% higher than it was in 1999! Despite a current pullback in prices, the demand for oil and other commodities will explode higher. Get the point? Even if commodity prices were to fall that much, which I do not believe they will, they would merely be making HIGHER LOWS, the classic definition of a long-term bull market. Put another way, the world is getting used to higher oil prices, higher gold prices (a lower dollar), and higher prices for virtually every natural resource under the sun. What's more, as commodity prices pull back, demand will explode higher again. Won't you run off to the gas pump if you can buy gas again at, say, $3.25 a gallon versus over $4 today? You bet you will. And so will millions of others. That will lead to a whole new surge in demand, from much higher lows for the price of gas. The same can be said for gold, copper, heating oil, soybeans, wheat, and corn. What we have witnessed over the last few years — what I call Phase 1 of the greatest bull market in natural resources, ever — is merely the breakout phase. From here on out, the world will no longer assume we have plentiful supplies of natural resources. Demand will continually rise in its own right, partly due to the ongoing and rapid emergence of countries all over the world, especially China and India. And all the while, central banks everywhere will err on the side of inflation, by creating more and more money to chase fewer and fewer goods. Stay the course with your natural resource investments. They have paid off, and they will continue to pay off. Best wishes, Larry Last edited: 14-Aug-08 11:49 AM

I think US economy is fundamentally sound. There is a healthy correction in housing prices and taming of credit markets. For investors these are good times if you have cash in hand to invest. In the long run stock market should rebound pretty well. I am not sure about the dollar but the decline should be steady. The continuation of globalisation might expose the poverty in US but it is an indespensable part of any economy. The upcoming presidential nominrr will be seen as a key to future direction.

Felt like coming back into this thread and see if my gloom and doom outlook were in line with the whole mess...Damn, if only I had shorted the markets like crazy then (when my anaysis was dead on target). LOLs All those who believed that the economy was still on a path to recovery back in July/Aug, I hope you now see that we are in a Depression like scenario and the economic indicators and forecasts we get readings/results on every day proves we are going to be stuck within this distressful quagmire for a LONG azz period in time. It helps in being an optimist at times but that was just a totally wrong time to be one. In layman's terms (since everyone knows the Dow), Back in July/Aug when I started this thread, the Dow was around 11,900...It went down to 7,500 a few days ago. A loss of 37% in just span of 3+ months. The spiral is still enroute to continue downwards and as per doomsday analysts, by 2012, putting food on the table would be a bigger issue than buying gifts for the holidays. Not a good sign at all. As far as I observe, it looks like consumerism has seen the last of its days...Too bad for Detroit and the Banks who delved into a million other products instead of specializing and surviving. Nevertheless, I still want to see a miracle happen and see the economy come skyrocketing from the nadirs it currently is in. Geithner's da man...Atleast, I hope he will turn out to be!! Below is more reading for the cats on SB whom I told to invest in Gold around the beginning of last week for the long run...Hope you were there then. Looks like everyone's caught onto it now (and more will once they read the below article from today). Its too late to jump into the band-wagon now but still, try and buy it on dips. That would be the best way to still play yourslef into the game without losing out in the sidelines...As all traders prolly know that Being Right in your analysis and not being able to get into a trade that makes money is worse than being totally wrong about the trade and losing double. MONEYANDMARKETS» Wednesday, November 26, 2008 YOUR BEST SOURCE FOR THE UNBIASED MARKET COMMENTARY YOU WON'T GET FROM WALL STREET [«] Money and Markets 2008 Archive View This Issue On Our Website [»] Financial Mayhem to Fuel Gold's Next Surge? by Sean Brodrick Dear Subscriber, Last week, I wrote about how our oil-rich friends in the Middle East are buying gold hand over fist. It turns out they're not the only ones. The latest figures from the World Gold Council show a frenzy of activity in the most recent quarter. And gold ended last week with a bullish move to the upside that set off "buy" alarm bells for technical traders around the world. But you know what? I think the best is yet to come for gold. Because it's likely that the WORST is yet to come for the U.S. economy. And these economic forces could send investors charging even faster into gold just as fundamental forces also align for a move much higher. I'll get to some of those fundamentals in just a bit. First, let's look at what Washington's insane clown posse is doing to make gold look good. I Remember When a Trillion Dollars Was Real Money 1) The Fed Pledges $7.2 Trillion of YOUR Money. Bloomberg News reports that the U.S. government is prepared to lend more than $7.4 trillion — approximately half the value of everything produced in the nation last year — to rescue the financial system, which has been in cardiac arrest since the credit markets seized up. Internal Sponsorship Get Your Cash to Safety in 2009! Here's How ... There are still good places to park your money (and no, your backyard isn't one of them). That's why we want to send you a new FREE special report, called Where to Stash Your Cash. This is the report your bankers pray you'll never see. In it, we teach you how to get the very best combination of safety, yield, liquidity and convenience on your cash reserves. Click here for more information ... How much is that? The pledged money is equal to $24,000 for every man, woman and child in the country. And $2.8 trillion of that has already been spent, according to Bloomberg. Now brace yourself for the bad news ... 2) The Government Has Already Spent $4.3 Trillion Bailing Out Wall Street. According to CNBC, as of last week, the Federal government had already spent $4.3 trillion in bailouts, from $900 billion for the Term Auction Facility ... to $112 billion bailing out AIG ... to $540 billion backing up Money Market funds ... to $700 billion for the Treasury Asset Relief Program (TARP), and more. $4.3 trillion — that's more than America spent on World War II, adjusted for inflation. And it's all going down a black hole created by Wall Street bankers. The Federal government has already spent $4.3 TRILLION in bailouts and has hardly made a dent in the financial crisis. All that money has to come from somewhere. Investors are stuffing their money into Treasuries with no yield, and the government still has to go out and borrow more. The U.S. Treasury is on course to borrow $1.5 trillion this year, and it's still not enough! Next year's budget deficit will easily top $1 trillion; more than double this year's deficit. The overall impact of what the bailout will cost ultimately should be very negative for the U.S. dollar ... and that should be bullish for gold. 3) Wall Street Is Probably Going to Need $Trillions More! The financial crisis is really the death of a thousand cuts. Let's take the Citigroup fiasco as an example. You may have heard that Citigroup is getting a $20 billion equity injection on top of the $25 billion it got in October. But Citi will also carve out $300 billion in troubled assets, which will remain on its balance sheet. The first $37-$40 billion in losses on those assets will go to Citi. The next $5 billion in losses will hit Treasury. The next $10 billion in losses will go to the FDIC. Any more losses will go to the Fed. These assets are crap-tacularly bad, so basically Uncle Sam is on the hook for another $260 billion in assets, in addition to the $45 billion in liquidity poured onto the desert of Citi's balance sheet. And do you notice that the clowns on Wall Street are balking at giving Detroit a $25 billion bridge loan to save America's auto industry (and prevent a chain of dominos as all of the Big Three's suppliers, finance units and vendors go belly up) but Citi — a zombie of a bank that is probably lurching towards failure — gets $45 billion without even a debate. That brings me to point #4 ... #4) Obama's Administration: More of the Same? Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson has set the bar pretty low as he limbos past barriers of logic and fairness to bail out his fat-cat friends. So you might think that the new administration, and Obama's nomination for Treasury Secretary, New York Fed President Tim Geithner, would be a welcome change from the crony capitalism at work now. The widely respected Big Picture blog has a post by institutional risk analyst Chris Whalen titled: "What Barack Obama Needs to Know About Tim Geithner, the AIG Fiasco and Citigroup." I highly recommend you read Whalen's post. He makes the following point: By embracing Geithner, President-elect Barack Obama is endorsing the ill-advised scheme to support AIG directed by Hank Paulson et al at Goldman Sachs and executed by Tim Geithner and Ben Bernanke. News reports have already documented the ties between GS and AIG, and the backroom machinations by Paulson to get the deal done. This scheme to stay AIG's resolution cannot possibly work and when it does collapse, Barak Obama and his administration will wear the blame due through their endorsement of Tim Geithner. Read the whole thing. If Whalen is right, the crisis of confidence already shaking the financial markets is nothing compared to the tsunami of trouble that will follow. Is Tim Geithner – President-Elect Obama's choice for Treasury Secretary – a welcome change or more of the same? And What If the Doom-Sayers Are Wrong? I'd be happy — very happy — if financial calamity is averted. But then we'll still have to deal with a system thrown off balance by trillions of dollars in newly created money. The hundreds of billions of dollars in a new stimulus package for Main Street — Obama's job #1 when he gets into office — will be icing on the inflationary cake. Once you start flooding money into the system, it's very difficult to know when to stop. We are in deflation now, sure, but I think government-fueled inflation is sure to follow. That Brings Us to Gold And the Dollar The U.S. dollar has its problems, but so far it has been winning a beauty contest in a leper colony. Emerging markets are falling into a ditch. Europe's economy is in the tank — Germany's business climate has dropped to the lowest level in over 15 years — and the European Central Bank will probably lower its benchmark interest rate by at least 75 basis points at its next meeting on December 4. So far, the U.S. dollar has not been shaken by the massive amounts of bailout and stimulus money that Washington is throwing at America's problems. But again, $7.4 trillion is real money. And the financial world may be waking up to the fact that, no matter how many hundreds of billions of dollars you throw at companies like AIG and Citigroup, it's good money after bad. Last week, the euro/U.S. dollar currency pair barely budged even as stocks sold off sharply. This is a change from recent months, when the euro had come under pressure as equities sold off. I don't think the mighty U.S. dollar's bull run is over. But the U.S. dollar could move lower as it consolidates its recent gains. And downward pressure on the U.S. dollar would only add to upward pressure on gold, powered by fundamentals. Gold's Fundamentals Are Shining Even Brighter I covered some of those bullish fundamentals last week, including new and massive buying in the Middle East, rising demand for gold in China in the first six months of the year, and a downward trend in global gold mine production. And just last week, we got the latest third-quarter figures on global gold demand from the World Gold Council. Here are some of the highlights ... Global demand rose 18% to 1,133.4 metric tonnes from 963.3 tonnes a year earlier. In dollar terms, the jump in demand was even bigger. Dollar demand for gold reached an all time quarterly record of $32 billion in the third quarter, a whopping 45% higher than the previous record ... set in the second quarter. Identifiable investment, which includes purchases through exchange traded funds and of bars and coins, climbed 56% year over year to 382.1 tonnes. Retail investment blasted off. It rose 121% to 232 tonnes in the third quarter, with strong bar and coin buying reported in Swiss, German and U.S. markets. Gold inflows into ETFs surged to a record 150 tonnes. Gold ETFs added to their treasure troves at a rate that was 7.5% higher than the second quarter and up 31% from a year earlier. Jewelry demand gained 7.6% to $18 billion. Jewelry demand in India soared by 65% in dollar terms. The Middle East, China and Indonesia all saw jewelry demand in dollar terms rise by 40% (10% to 15% in tonnage terms). Sales to India, the world's largest gold consumer and jewelry buyer, jumped 29% to 249.5 tonnes from 190.8 tonnes. Meanwhile, demand increased by 18% in China and 15% in the Middle East. If there was a party pooper for gold, it was the United States. U.S. demand for gold jewelry dropped 9% in value and 29% in tonnage terms. Great Britain also saw its demand slacken by 5% in value and 26% in tonnage terms. In all, global consumer demand for gold rose 31% from a year earlier to 250 metric tonnes. So we have this combination of forces: Powerful fundamentals on the one hand, and the potential for more financial chaos on the other. Put them together and you can see that gold could go much higher. Gold's fundamentals and the potential for more financial chaos make the yellow metal your best bet for profits going forward. I'd expect some overhead resistance around $900 an ounce. If gold can break through that level, it could be on a rocket ride for the New Year. Add Some Leverage To Your Gold Picks Gold's path higher will not be a straight line. In fact, I expect some corrections that could knock the yellow metal right on its shiny butt. But that's short term. Longer term, gold should march higher. The way things are going in Washington, I like physical gold, and silver, too. Certainly, with the holidays around the corner, gold is the gift you don't have to make excuses for ... and, as the old timers remind us, it can always pay your way to sneak past the border guards. Last week, I talked about two funds that hold physical gold, the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) and the Barclays iShares Comex Gold Trust (IAU). They are fixed at 1/10th the price of gold, minus a small amount to account for fees. That means if gold is trading at $800 an ounce, you can buy the GLD or the IAU for about $80. And they are backed up by gold bullion in a vault. To them, I would add the PowerShares DB Gold Double Long ETN (DGP). It targets TWICE the return of the Deutsche Bank Gold Index, or basically twice the short-term percentage move in gold. In these fast and furious markets, a leveraged fund is not for the faint of heart. But it can give you extra firepower for when gold takes off to the upside. Yours for trading profits, Sean

USD still in speculation to get stronger due to the even worse state the the EU is in...One thing that still defies all fundamentals: Why is the JPY still so damn strong? IMO, the massive interventions that the Japanese Reserve Bank did back in the days is coming to haunt them now...Its the US Feds' turn now to save Detroit and artificially inflate the JPY so that Toyota/Honda/etc would not appeal as much financially anymore to the global car buyers. As in theories, anything's possible in this current depression scenario we're mired in, so I surely cannot rule even the whackiest theory that anyone may have being wrong. Dear Subscriber, Fortunately for us, U.S. banks loaned only $500 billion to emerging markets over the past few years. Japanese banks loaned them less; only $200 billion. But European banks loaned them a whopping $3.5 trillion — five times more than the U.S. and Japan combined. Amazingly, the loans to those countries were so large they're the equivalent of a whopping 21% of their Eurozone's total GDP, according to Bank for International Settlements. And when you look at individual countries, the numbers are even larger: In Sweden, banks loaned an amount equal to 25% of that country's GDP ... Swiss banks loaned the equivalent of 50% — fully HALF — of Switzerland's total GDP ... And Austrian banks loaned an amount equal to 85% that nation's GDP — with 80% going to the countries in Eastern Europe that are now suffering the greatest economic pain of all! Now, these emerging markets are being squeezed mercilessly. Investors are fleeing. Credit is as rare as hens' teeth. Exports are slumping and income is vanishing. In fact, not one but TWO major crises are now hammering these emerging nations: First, sinking exports. Over the last few years, the historic economic growth in emerging markets like Ukraine, South Korea, the Czech Republic, Poland, and others was driven almost entirely by demand for their exports from the U.S. and Europe. Now, with the U.S. and Eurozone economies sliding, that demand has started to evaporate. And because these countries have little domestic demand to drive their economies, they've suddenly been thrown into a struggle for their very survival. Second, plunging oil. As the economic crisis has slashed oil prices by nearly two-thirds, oil-producing emerging nations — Russia, Venezuela, Ecudor and others — are suddenly starving for cash to pay their bills. Combined, these two events are now conspiring to set off a chain reaction that will bring the biggest creditors to these emerging markets — such as Europe and the UK — to their knees. Tiny Ecuador: The Canary in the Coal Mine When the history books are written, two key dates will be cited as moments when critical warnings were clearly telegraphed, duly recorded and promptly ignored until it was too late: Key Date #1: Thursday, November 13. Nineteen days ago, the government of Ecuador failed to pay interest on bonds it had sold to investors. Citing plunging oil revenues, the government postponed its interest payments for a full month. Key Date #2: Monday, December 15. Thirteen days from today, Ecuador must make those interest payments plus interest for the month of November. If it fails — if Ecuador defaults on its government bonds — it could be the first domino in a chain reaction of government debt defaults that will sweep the globe. Is Ecuador a big player? Of course not. But it's merely the first one. As you read this, governments throughout Asia and Europe are facing similar circumstances: Foreign demand for the products they produce is virtually non-existent ... their own citizens are unable to buy the products their factories produce ... and even oil producing nations are starving for cash as energy prices crater. Russia is now begging China for a $25 billion loan to save its cash-strapped energy companies. Its foreign currency reserves have plunged $122.7 billion — a full 21% — in just 3 ½ months. Foreign investors are stampeding for the exits. A few days ago, leaders from 21 nations, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and three other international organizations attended an emergency, two-day summit to address the catastrophe among emerging nations. Japan pledged $100 billion for emergency loans to the governments of South Korea, India, Indonesia and other economies and urged other potential donor nations to do the same. Now, as these once-emerging countries sink into depression, those loans are beginning to go sour. European banks are ALREADY getting hammered for huge loan losses — and investors who own their shares are ALREADY getting slammed. My forecast: You're going to see ... Huge loan defaults in emerging markets like Ecuador, Hungary, Ukraine, and Argentina ... Massive losses and even outright failures among Europe's largest banks ... Panic selling on stock exchanges throughout the Eurozone ... A massive flight to safety — OUT of euros ... Windfall profits for investors who know how to profit from the euro's plunge.

Nassy Nas, my free market brother in arms (not of the pics u post though ). Yeah, 700Billion in economics terms would defn be more than that. Taking the money multiplier into effect, it could be 9 times as much and some economists say that the MM effect could be as high as 11. That means we can expect the bail out to exponetially rise to the tune of around 6.3 to 7.7 Trillion!! And now with the auto-industry bailout looming we can expect the Real figure to easily topple 10 Trillion!!! BTW, Congress will surely pass the auto bailout...It's just a matter of WHEN. Who on earth would let millions of jobs in the auto industry and the businesses that depend on this industry to flounder? Detroit alone is expected to lose around 1.1 million jobs if the Big 3 files for bankruptcy protection. More woes for the EUR and good news for our Nepali brethren who send remittance back home...The USD though over-bought in the short term, I believe that it still has all the technicals to support its uptrend and continue gaining steam as per its current momentum (the trend has clearly changed now). Just 4 months ago, 1 USD = 62 NPR, today, its 80 NPR. At this rate, a 90 is not an impossible target anymore. Read the below and manage your USD shorts or it could bite you in the azz hard!! Euro set to weaken substantially by Jack Crooks Dear Subscriber, There's been a strong move against the U.S. dollar this week. But am I envious of the euro right now? Definitely not. Technically the dollar is extremely overbought. So I expect a decent, near-term correction upward in the euro. However, according to my analysis, the euro is set to weaken substantially against the U.S. dollar over the next several months. That view is based on three long-term global economic themes in place that should continue to hammer away at the Eurozone economy and expose the flaws in the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. Threat to the Euro #1: Certain emerging European economies, not already part of the European Monetary Union (EMU), are looking at the euro and kicking themselves. Why? Before a country can adopt the Euro, it must gain acceptance into the Eurozone. They didn't make the effort to adopt the euro as their currency of choice. You see, a country must first gain acceptance into the Eurozone before it can adopt the euro. And back when everything across emerging markets was all hunky-dory, acceptance would have been relatively painless. Growth wasn't a concern. Yet emerging nations stuck with their existing currencies, which had no trouble maintaining or even gaining value. But times are changing. Global demand is waning. And some economies in Central and Eastern Europe are wailing for help. Their lopsided growth model — over-reliant on global capital and under-reliant on domestic demand — is keeling over on them. And their currencies can't support the unexpected weight. Here's a comment from someone who agrees with me: Andras Simor, president of the Hungarian Central Bank, said recently, "Hungary's scope for interest rate cuts is limited because of the risk of a very significant devaluation of the forint." So it's no surprise to me why the average Hungarian citizen would rather be holding the euro instead of the forint. The specter of the Central European countries being inducted into the system has many worried, including me. Some analysts have looked at the recent clamoring by Central European economies to adopt the euro as a sign the Eurozone is becoming a safe haven. Internal Sponsorship U.S. Automakers Doomed No Matter WHAT Washington Does! With GM and Chrysler less than 19 days away from bankruptcy, and with the U.S. Senate rejecting automakers' pleas for an emergency bailout, Treasury Secretary Paulson has just pledged he will not let them fail. Here's why no amount of money Paulson or anyone else throws at Detroit can save GM or Chrysler now ... Why massive deflationary forces are aligned to crush the U.S. economy and stock market next year ... and why we are holding a ... DEFLATION SURVIVAL BRIEFING NEXT WEDNESDAY! Click here for more information ... True. Relative to Central Europe, the larger countries in the Eurozone are safe. But, this excerpt from a recent story carried in Bloomberg sums up the dilemma the Eurozone is facing: "The dilemma for the European Central Bank (ECB) is that, while the desire to join the euro region is greater, qualifying is becoming harder: Membership requires countries to meet targets for inflation, budgets, currencies and interest rates — a tall order in the middle of a recession. "Allowances have been made before. Greece assumed membership in 2001 on data that proved to be fudged. Inflation rebounded in Slovenia after it joined last year. "'The consequences of similar compromises would be greater now,' says Paul Donovan, an economist at UBS AG in London. 'Enlargement would expose the euro area to more bank failures and make it harder to manage a one-size-fits-all monetary policy. "'While smaller countries outside the euro are more willing to join as a result of the crisis, the rest of the euro zone may be less willing to contemplate their admittance,' he says. "'A widening gap between the region's weakest and strongest economies would add to concern about a breakup. Harvard's Feldstein says individual nations could still leave the euro bloc if they find monetary policy too tight or fiscal rules too onerous. "'The global economic crisis provides a severe test of the euro's ability to survive in more troubled times,' he wrote in a column last month. He said the growing gap between interest rates on German bonds and on those of more heavily indebted Italy suggests investors 'regard a breakup as a real possibility.' The gap, or spread, has more than quadrupled in a year to 1.4 percentage points." No doubt acceptance into the union is the best path for developing nations of Central Europe. But acceptance of these countries and the impact on the euro are quite another thing. Threat to the Euro #2: Eurozone's Banks Overexposed to Risk Even without the additional baggage of adopting Central European developing countries, Europe is already tied tightly to them through its huge exposure throughout the zone's banks. Among Eurozone member countries, Austrian banks happen to be the most overexposed to emerging market loans. In fact, their current level of exposure sits around a staggering 85% of their GDP. I don't think the global economy will find a way to rebound quickly. That means this massive exposure has the potential to wreak havoc on Austrian banks ... as well as those in a similar but somewhat less severe position. Austria recognizes the kind of trouble they could be in for, so they may look to the EMU for assistance. But not all members may want to come to Austria's aid. So while it's a major concern, the EMU lacks credible cross-border policies to handle such problems. And should EMU officials flounder, they could end up reading requests from members asking to get out of the deal. Internal Sponsorship Tune-In to MAM-TV! MAM-TV is up and running! Just click this link, and you'll be able to check out all that MAM-TV has to offer. Each MAM-TV channel has handy information that you can start using this very moment to protect your wealth and prosper in these challenging times. And our editors will regularly upload new shows to keep you well-informed. To start viewing these important broadcasts, absolutely free of charge, click here for direct access to MAM-TV. Or, go to MoneyandMarkets.com and click the MAM-TV banner. The result: An unstable monetary union that absolutely cannot be good for the euro. Threat to the Euro #3: Rattled Consumers Will Need Some Serious Time to Heal ... The fallout from the credit crisis is making people think twice about handing over their hard-earned cash. Part and parcel to the downfall of Emerging Market growth models is the developing trend (in the developed world) towards saving. Gone are the days when consumers were willing to dish out cash for any old item. Households are being hit on all types of investments they've made, including real estate, stock purchases, insurance, etc. This undermines consumer wealth and hugely influences confidence and behavior. Martin explained very well what these deflationary forces might mean in his Money and Markets column on Monday. There's little doubt consumers are pulling back on their spending rather quickly. The numbers are there to prove it. And there's a major divergence that proves a change in attitude. Even while disposable income has been rising at a healthy pace over the last couple quarters, consumption is falling. As an economist would say, the marginal propensity to consume is declining. The reserve currency most often benefits in a deflationary environment. This is why I believe the fundamentals globally won't change quickly. The frivolous spending and insatiable appetite for stuff won't return after a few banks get plucked out of the water, or the Big Three get a handout, or people start slaving over superfluous bridges and aqueducts. Rattled consumers need time to lick their wounds. And deflation is currently the bigger near-term threat. The reserve currency most often benefits in such a deflationary environment. This is why I expect we'll see the U.S. dollar benefit and the euro suffer. Best wishes, Jack

A must read for anyone still trynna know whats going on with the economy. The below article touches into every asset class/financial products out there and the interviewee even goes on to say we're headed towards more asset destruction to come about. The only hedge: USD. Look for it to continue heading upwards as compared to other currencies. And for the folks whom I talked on SB 2 weeks ago, even the below article from TODAY mentions about how the market dynamics have completely changed and what seemed like the way to go until 2-3 months ago (and was the same for the past 10+ yrs) does not hold true anymore. We're in a different dimension now. And for all you wannbe homebuyers who think that the market is too cheap or those stock gurus who wanna preach that this is the best time to invest into equities, well, you're surely not taking into account that the mess could get worse and price destuction could continue even further (I'm glad I have something to show in writing and theory below to corroborate my sayings in SB then). Things may look cheap today and with no one really knowing how further deep the CDS and mortgage woes really are, I see that everything stands to get cheaper tomorrow. I'd put a hold on all my investment activities for atleast a year or until I see some clear change in the dynamics again. The article from TODAY: MONEYANDMARKETS» Monday, December 22, 2008 YOUR BEST SOURCE FOR THE UNBIASED MARKET COMMENTARY YOU WON'T GET FROM WALL STREET [«] Money and Markets 2008 Archive View This Issue On Our Website [»] Gala Issue: Biggest Sea Change of Our Lifetime! by Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D. Dear Subscriber, The Fed, the Treasury and all major governments on the planet are throwing the kitchen sink at this debt crisis. But their efforts are being overwhelmed by a monumental sea change — the shift from rising prices to falling prices, from booming asset values to crashing asset values, from wealth creation to wealth destruction, from inflation to deflation. For my entire lifetime, and probably yours as well, we have been living with inflation — sometimes tame, sometimes rampant — but consistently eroding the purchasing power of our dollar. Inflation pervaded every money decision we made or thought about making, every retirement plan or business model. Inflation was factored into our leases, our employment contracts, our budgets, our investment programs. Now, all of that is changing; and it's doing so dramatically! Suddenly, the polar opposite of inflation is taking hold in America: Deflation! Suddenly, prices are plummeting — not just for real estate, but also for automobiles, appliances, clothing and gasoline. From peaks reached just a few months ago to the latest bottoms, the price of oil has plunged 73% ... copper has fallen 66% ... lead and nickel are down 73% ... platinum is down 66% ... and wheat is off 64%. Even the government's slow-to-change, lagging index of inflation — the CPI — has caved in to deflation, falling by the most since the government first introduced the index in 1946. These are not numbers that denote less inflation. They are hard evidence of outright deflation! This is crucial for you: If you continue investing as you did in inflationary times, you risk losing almost everything. However, if you acknowledge this historic shift and make the right moves now, you'll have the opportunity to build substantial wealth. This inflation-deflation switch is turning the entire world of investments upside down and inside out. It means you must consider the grave new dangers deflation brings your portfolio and, at the same time, the unique new opportunities deflation gives you to grow your wealth. This past week, during our Deflation Survival Briefing, I covered both topics with Jack Crooks, the only currency expert I'm aware of who, unlike his peers, not only warned unambiguously about deflation but also has a unique way to profit from the deflation. I assume you attended the event online from start to finish. At times, however, the sound may have been unclear, and I apologize. So here's an edited transcript for your convenience. It's a double-length gala issue especially for you, my way of underscoring the vital importance of this sea change. Deflation Survival Briefing with Martin D. Weiss and Jack Crooks (Edited Transcript) Martin Weiss: Jack, the division of labor I've mapped out is this: I will focus on the dangers and protective strategies; you can focus on the opportunities and profit strategies. Jack Crooks: That makes sense, but I think it's pretty obvious what the dangers are. Martin: Specifically, you're referring to ... Jack: Losing money. Losing a lot of money. Deflation means most asset prices go down. When asset prices go down, anyone who owns those assets loses money. It's that simple. Martin: What most people don't seem to grasp is how much money — the sheer magnitude of the losses. But the Fed just released the numbers, and I want to show them to you. I want you to see for yourself the amazing drama that literally bursts from these pages. On the Web, just go to Flow of Funds, pdf page 113. From this table, I've pulled out the main numbers to walk you through this step by step, because it's probably the most important set of facts you've seen — or will see — for a long time: The Fed tracks five key sectors that go into household wealth: real estate, corporate equities, mutual fund shares, life insurance and pension fund reserves, plus equity in noncorporate businesses. Now let me show you how the wealth destruction is spreading throughout the U.S. economy. First quarter 2007: Every single wealth sector is still growing, except one — real estate. This $53 billion loss in real estate is a time and place that will go down in history as the great turning point of our era. Second quarter 2007: Another $190 billion in real estate wealth destroyed. Third quarter 2007: Households suffer a whopping $496 billion in losses — nearly 10 times as much as in the first quarter. Fourth quarter 2007: The wealth destruction spreads to nearly all other sectors. Households lose $708 billion in real estate, the most in history. Plus, they lose $377 billion in stocks, $145 billion in mutual funds, $265 billion in their life insurance and pension reserves. First quarter 2008: The carnage deepens. Households lose $911 billion in stocks, $297 billion in mutual funds and $832 billion in insurance and pension fund reserves. Plus, the losses spread to the last major sector, equity in noncorporate businesses. Second quarter 2008: The Bush economic stimulus package kicks in, and it slows down the pace a bit. But the hemorrhaging continues. Not one single sector recovers. Third quarter 2008: Earth-shattering losses across the board, with households losing ... ANOTHER $647 billion in real estate $922 billion in corporate equities $523 billion in mutual funds $653 billion in insurance and pension fund reserves $128 billion in noncorporate businesses Grand total: Nearly $2.9 trillion in losses — the worst in recorded history. Grand total lost over the past year: $7.2 trillion. Jack: And this is not just a bunch of numbers. It's a hard-nosed reality that almost everyone is up against. Martin: Absolutely! At the peak of the housing boom, one of our associates had his home appraised at $1.4 million. Three weeks ago, he had it appraised again and it was down around $700,000. That's a 50% decline. And it's not just the high end of the market. In May 2005, another home in our area sold for $175,000; now it's listed at Realtor.com for only $64,000. Jack: People think that since home values have already fallen so far, they must be near a bottom. Martin: I don't agree with that view. Most of the price declines we've seen so far merely represent a recognition that the peak prices of the mid-2000s were a fantasy built upon "Frankenstein Financing" — wildly speculative credit terms such as option ARMs and liar loans. The hard-core declines in housing, driven by basic things like recession and unemployment, are just now getting under way. Jack: How much further do you see home prices falling? Martin: My personal opinion is that that over half of the declines are still ahead. That applies not only to housing, but also to commercial properties; not only to real estate, but also to stocks and other assets. Consumer prices just began to fall in October. Outright contractions in the economy are just now getting under way. Deflation is still in its early stages. The wealth destruction has a long way to go. Jack: You call this wealth destruction and I don't deny the validity of that term. But another way to describe it is rampant deflation. Deflation in the value of real estate and other investments, deflation in energy, deflation at the car dealer and deflation at every mall. In each and every sector that you've described, the U.S. dollar buys more. Martin: That's the positive side of the story. But whatever you call it, these numbers don't lie. You can see with your own eyes that it's massive and that it's spreading throughout the entire economy. Jack: Martin, all this raises some urgent questions in my mind and probably in the minds of our readers as well. First, can the government offset this massive destruction of wealth with more bailouts, more Fed actions and gigantic economic stimulus packages? Martin: They can buy some time or they can slow down the process temporarily, as they did in the second quarter of 2008, for example. But still, my answer is a flat NO! Not even Washington can print enough money fast enough to halt this deflationary spiral; it's just too huge. And all the printing press money in the world won't do much if it's not lent or spent. Bottom line: No matter which companies Washington bails out, this is a house of cards. It's coming down. And you must get out if its way. Jack: Still, a lot of people have big expectations for President-elect Obama's stimulus package starting next year. Martin: The highest estimates for the Obama stimulus package are $1 trillion. But even if it's that big, it's still small in contrast to the wealth destruction we're already seeing. And it's going to take a couple of years before all of that money reaches Americans. By that time, trillions more in wealth could be lost. Jack: Every economist I read likes to leave some wiggle room for future butt-covering, just in case they turn out to be wrong. But you're not pulling any punches, are you? Why is that? Martin: It's not needed in this situation — because of the sheer enormity and speed of the wealth destruction: $7.2 trillion just through over the past year. In contrast, the Trouble Asset Relief Program (TARP) is $700 billion. So these losses are already ten times more than the entire bailout program. Let's compare how much is being lost vs. what the government is doing to offset it. Here's the progression we just saw: $1.5 trillion lost in the fourth quarter of 2007 $2.7 trillion lost in the first quarter of 2008 $630 billion lost in the second quarter of 2008 $2.9 trillion in the third quarter Now, let me demonstrate why the government's efforts are unable to offset this wealth destruction. Congress has authorized $700 billion for TARP. But the Treasury Department reports that in the fourth quarter, only $330 billion has been committed so far. Jack: Committed or actually disbursed? Martin: Committed. Jack: The ol' check-in-the-mail routine, eh? Martin: Yes. But let's assume the $330 billion is already at the banks. And let's say that in the first quarter of 2009, they are able to disburse all of the rest. That's still minuscule in comparison to the wealth destruction. Jack: Meanwhile, the wealth destruction continues. Martin: Right. We don't know how much. But let's assume the wealth destruction does not decelerate or accelerate. Let's just assume it continues at the same pace. Here's what it would look like. Moreover, most of the money being funneled to the banks is not reaching consumers and businesses. Instead, it's sitting idle at the banks, to rebuild their capital, to try to offset all the losses they've sustained. Jack: How much of the TARP money are the banks actually lending out? Martin: We don't know. Jack: Isn't this why Congress is so ticked off, trying to find a way to force the banks to lend out the TARP money? Martin: Yes. But it's a tough sell. The banks are going broke. They're being asked to lend it to borrowers, who they fear will also go broke. So the resistance is great. But even if you assume that Congress can force the Treasury Department to, in turn, force the banks to loan out some fraction of the TARP money, it would still be only a fraction of the total TARP funds. Jack: A drop in the bucket. Martin: Absolutely! The huge red areas in this chart represent the tremendous power of deflation. The small black areas represent the impotence of government to offset the deflation. The power of deflation is hundreds of times larger than the government's ability to counteract it. This is why the U.S. government was not able to prevent deflation in the 1930s. And it's also why the Japanese government was unable to prevent its deflation in the 1990s. Jack: Still, most people think the government can just print more money at will. They're now talking about a total bill of $8.5 trillion. Your numbers don't seem to account for that. Martin: Because those bigger numbers are almost entirely guarantees and swaps — not net new money added to the economy. Plus, please bear in mind one more thing: The wealth destruction we've been discussing today does not include the losses by financial institutions, corporations and governments. Jack: Good point. But let me go to the second major question I get from readers: What's causing this and when will it end? Martin: What's perpetuating the deflation is excess debts. Look. Debts were usually bearable. As long as people had the income to make their payments — or as long as they could borrow from Peter to pay Paul — they could keep piling up more debt, and life went on. Deflation alone is also not so bad. It makes homes more affordable, college education more accessible, and basic necessities of life cheaper. Jack: But when you put debts and deflation together ... Martin: That's when things fall apart! That's when you get not only wealth destruction but DEBT destruction. Jack: And we have evidence of that as well, I presume. Martin: Yes, undeniable, smoking-gun evidence. For decades, we've almost always seen more debt piled up quarter after quarter, year after year. But then, beginning in the third quarter of 2007, all that changed. For the first time, we saw massive debt liquidation — debt destruction. It started in the commercial paper market, where corporations issue short-term corporate IOUs to borrow in massive amounts: In the third quarter of 2007, instead of growing as it almost always has, commercial paper was being liquidated at a rapid pace. That was the canary in the coal mine. Jack: And now? Martin: Now the debt liquidation has spread: In addition to the liquidation of commercial paper, we're seeing massive debt liquidation in mortgages and corporate bonds. Jack: How big? Martin: The biggest ever in recorded history. Look at mortgages! The Fed reports how much in new mortgages are created each quarter at an annual rate. Ever since you and I were born, all we've even seen is net new growth in mortgages. That's how it was when we were growing up, that's how it was in recent years, and that's what we saw in the third quarter of 2007. See? Jack: $1,005 billion. Martin: Yes. Net net, after all mortgage paydowns, new mortgages were added at the rate of $1,005 billion per year. Almost the same in the fourth quarter of 2007. But then look: First quarter 2008 — $539 billion. Second quarter 2008 — new mortgages begin to vanish from the market. Yet, up until this point, we're just talking about a credit crunch. Jack: In other words, less new credit. Martin: Yes, and that's already a powerful deflationary force: Most people can't get mortgages. So they can't buy. Since there are few buyers, prices fall. That's when people think: "This is terrible. It couldn't possibly get any worse." Jack: But it does, doesn't it? Martin: Dramatically worse: In third quarter of 2008, the volume of mortgages going bad is so big and the volume of new mortgages being created is so small, we have a net decline in mortgages outstanding. For the first time in recorded history, we have a net destruction of debts in this sector. This is far worse than a credit crunch. It is a DEBT COLLAPSE, an unprecedented, unstoppable deflationary force. The same kind of debt collapse also hits corporate bonds. Third quarter of 2007 — no problem. New bonds are issued at the annual rate of nearly $1,481 billion per year. Fourth quarter of 2007 — big decline, to $821 billion. Jack: Credit crunch begins to hit. Martin: Exactly. First and second quarters of 2008 — credit crunch hits even harder. Third quarter of 2008 — debt collapse strikes! It's the biggest net reduction of corporate bonds in recorded history, running at the annual rate of $755 billion (red bar in chart). Again, one of the most powerful deflationary forces of all time! Jack: So what's the next stage? Martin: A chain reaction of c

Continued from above, since the last part did not fit into the thread (due to content limitations on posts here on Sajha): Jack: Actually, you don't need World Currency Alert to invest in currency ETFs. It's very easy to do, and like I said, they're readily available to anyone with a regular stock brokerage account. You buy and sell them just like a stock or any other ETF. You don't need any new accounts. They're extremely liquid. You just aim to buy them low and sell them high, like any other investment. Martin: What would you buy when? Jack: Whenever you see a setback in the dollar, I would buy the PowerShares Dollar Bull ETF. Martin: OK. So why should someone buy your service? Jack: You don't need my service to buy them. You need World Currency Alert to make money in them, to take your profits, and to do it with some degree of consistency. If your goal is to take no risk whatsoever and keep all your money 100% safe, then buying currency ETFs would be a mistake, because there IS always risk of loss. But if you're concerned about this deflation — or a future return of inflation — then NOT taking this opportunity is the mistake you'd be making, in my view. There's nothing, absolutely nothing standing in your way. Martin: Except the cost of the service. Jack: No, I don't see that as an obstacle. The cost of World Currency Alert is just $295 per year. If you invested just a couple thousand in one of the trades I just mentioned, you could cover an entire year's cost very easily. Martin: In terms of timing, when would be a good time for investors to start with your service? Jack: There's no particular time that's better than any other. Right now, we've had a setback in the dollar. So I'm looking to jump in with a new batch of recos, perhaps around the first week of the new year. So you could wait until then. The key timing issue is the price change we're going to put into place: Starting January 1, we're raising the price to $395. So don't wait until then. Because as long as you join before December 31, you save $100. Plus, there are even bigger savings if you join for two years. In fact, I think the two-year membership makes the most sense. Martin: Because ... Jack: Because, like I said, it offers the biggest savings. And no matter what, if you're not happy, if it doesn't work for you or you just decide to change your mind, no problem — 100% money-back guarantee in the first 90 days; pro-rated refund at any time thereafter. Martin: That's very fair. Please provide a web link for more info and to order your service. Jack: It's http://images.moneyandmarkets.... Or you can call 800-393-0189. Martin: One way to look at this is like a home business to generate extra revenues. Jack: I agree. All it takes is a couple of minutes each day, and for each minute of your time, you could be looking at a thousand or two in revenue per hour. Just remember, the price goes up January 1, 2009. Martin: Thank you, Jack. And thank YOU, our readers, for joining us today. Let's talk again soon. Good luck and God bless! Martin

Samsara, Thank you for originating this thread and keeping it alive. Certainly worth reading. Without an economics (or a financial) academic (or professional) background it is quite confusing for people like us on which analysis/theory to believe on. The article that you last posted was almost leading me to believe that the dollar would get stronger until they started talking about selling their subscription service for currency alert. Towards the end it just looked like a conversation type promotional ads that we see on TV. However, the facts and numbers given in the article is real and the logic they have put forth on why dollar would rise is quite convincing. But at the same time if I read other articles out there in financial pages and blogs then I equally get convinced that the dollar would weaken and that commodities like Gold will rise. It will be nice to read yours and other Sajha folk’s analysis on what would be the best thing to do so that we don’t loose value of our hard earned remaining money (I am sure most of us already have lost quite a bit in this turmoil) a) Hold the cash (dollars) b) Convert your dollars into other currencies (if dollar is going to weaken) c) Invest in Gold Thanks again for keeping this thread alive. Hope others would contribute too.