Posted by: lootekukur July 28, 2008
Login in to Rate this Post:
0 
? 
?
yo sam/hydie! thanks for the bone. at least i have something to chew on now. 
the record budget deficit (damn $490 billion!
) will have a massive global effect IMO since Feds' stimulus is being transmitted to different countries (including asian and pacific, let alone european) across the globe and that will increase the commodity price and hence the global inflation.
btw, in case if you folks missed, a warning about a complete meltdown in the US was issued by Fortis in their press release a month ago.
the recession looks quite ominous no doubt. the question is: are we staring at the face of a great depression which they say occur once in every human lifetime?
assuming 80 years of lifetime, the last depression occurred in 1929. now add 80 years to it. 2009?
it's impossible to correctly predict economy in the midst of various dynamic economic variables. even buffet gave up for that matter. so we may never know until it actually occurs.
btw, there is an adage which goes like this: If your neighbor loses his job, it's a recession. If you lose your job, you know a depression has arrived! hahaha
IMO, the depression is around the corner, if the present trend continues (which looks plausible). it will take at least 7-8 years for the depressed housing sector to revive in the US. the foreclosure will go and hit the UK and other European countries as well where the subprime loan is given (at cheap rate).
since there is no subprime in the indian real estate industry, they will survive. but there's a caveat. their GDP will get affected because of plummeting IT exports. remember, IT contributes about 6-7% GDP growth in india. Since Indian IT companies rely heavily on the US and Europe, there will be cut back on their IT budget.
sometimes we feel, our generation (especially we nepalese) are the most transient of all generations. there are changes everywhere (in the country and outside) if you look closely (all for the betterment I hope)
the record budget deficit (damn $490 billion!
) will have a massive global effect IMO since Feds' stimulus is being transmitted to different countries (including asian and pacific, let alone european) across the globe and that will increase the commodity price and hence the global inflation. btw, in case if you folks missed, a warning about a complete meltdown in the US was issued by Fortis in their press release a month ago.
the recession looks quite ominous no doubt. the question is: are we staring at the face of a great depression which they say occur once in every human lifetime?
assuming 80 years of lifetime, the last depression occurred in 1929. now add 80 years to it. 2009?
it's impossible to correctly predict economy in the midst of various dynamic economic variables. even buffet gave up for that matter. so we may never know until it actually occurs.
btw, there is an adage which goes like this: If your neighbor loses his job, it's a recession. If you lose your job, you know a depression has arrived! hahaha
IMO, the depression is around the corner, if the present trend continues (which looks plausible). it will take at least 7-8 years for the depressed housing sector to revive in the US. the foreclosure will go and hit the UK and other European countries as well where the subprime loan is given (at cheap rate).
since there is no subprime in the indian real estate industry, they will survive. but there's a caveat. their GDP will get affected because of plummeting IT exports. remember, IT contributes about 6-7% GDP growth in india. Since Indian IT companies rely heavily on the US and Europe, there will be cut back on their IT budget.
sometimes we feel, our generation (especially we nepalese) are the most transient of all generations. there are changes everywhere (in the country and outside) if you look closely (all for the betterment I hope)