First of all, after a long time, I am reading a good thread in sajha. Congrats to all Sajhaites.

Going back to GP's original post; I guess he wrote the worst case scenario. I don't think he is sure or wants it be like that or wishes it. As in every situation there is a worst case scenario and the best case scenario. No body is saying sky is falling (except one guy who always starts his post with wtf:p).When a party wins which praises the legacy of Stalin and Mao Zedong then such kind of skepticism is very usual, IMO. So I see cautiously optimistic and optimistic views in every post over here.Yes, we all are FED UP with Girija.

Btw. Haddock told that two third is a distant thing. But if the trend follow itself then they would achieve it.
There are certain things which havent been clear. Again, I would like to talk in the best possible "POLITICAL" scenario.
There are three types of crisis in Nepal which I assume next Maoist government has to deal with.
Political
Social
Economical

Political: They proved themselves to be the best in the game in the current situation. Less political and bureaucratic baggage also helped them a lot. The top leader Maoist has to be given the credit for this. IMO, Political change is straightforward (btw, they were able to do so) and has been accepted by the most of public, which is Federal Democratic Republic. They have right now propose 11 (mostly ethnic and some geographical) of them suiting their party and voice of the cadres( people like Gopal Khumbu, Matrika yadav and all). So this would be something which may effect Nepali politics over a long period of time. Also it would be make their party  too strong. So,how would they go forward with the division is still unclear, how would they compromise with MJF and others is still to be seen.

Social : This is a tricky issue. So far they haven't been clear. Some actions were contradictory. eg: They want less westernization where as their minister went in a Jeans to have ministerial oath. What level of freedom will they give to the civic and media society also has to be seen. Their policies towards religion is very unclear.

Economic: How would they merge socialism and capitalism and able to get the foreign loan is something even most optimist can be skeptic. So far they are saying that they would make Nepal self standing. But we all know what is the situation; so foreign help ( including diplomatic and especially technological) is something they should be able to get for any kind economic improvement.  I am very much looking forward to their Economic policies.

Also with the clean sweep and possible two third, Maoist ideology may shift to further left. The structure of current CPM_M, which basically divided into the fractions(according to newspapers). One is the liberal communist (Bhattrai Gang), Moderal Communist (Prachanda Gang) and hardcore Communist ( Kiran Gang). Now due to international politics and economic structure Moaist has changed alot in their policies. Democaratic republic is the idea of Liberal and Moderal Maoist, some hardcores are still skeptical about it. But if they win the two third then hardcores would raise their voice citing majority of people support them, which would lead the Maoist to move to further left( I won't say Hardcore communism).


This was a bumpy ride, proved almost every Sajha pundit wrong. So fasten the seat belt and get ready for the another skeptic, hateful and optimistic two years of writing constitution. And ya, If you wanna prove yourself wrong, start predicting.

But what ever party or ideology you support, Prachanda and Baburam deserves a round of applause getting this far.