Posted by: Captain Haddock April 12, 2008
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I am looking at the numbers below which keep changing, but given there are two parts to this election, I wonder if people are jumping the gun here by talking about some sort of a red revolution:
The Maoists could win an absolute majority (difficult but possible) or they could form an alliance with the UML (more likely) or the NC. The chances of a "permanent revolution" against the bourgeois diminishes with anything short of an overwhelming majority.
Another possibility, which will depend as the rest of th results come in, and something I am sure many people on Sajha will be aghast to hear is a Congress-MPRF alliance. If the current trend of the combined left (Maoist+UML+NKMP) count over 50% continues then the Maoists will likely be the dominant party in power with help from the UML and that will be it for the Congress - time to sit in the opposition and retrospect. (Honestly, I think the NC is long overdue for that) But if that trend does not hold true, then this thing is still wide open and we could end up with a different type of government than being forecasted by the Sajha punditocracy.
And even if the Maoists come to power, while that is not what I want, I dont think it is the end of the world either. Power in Nepal tends to completely destroy those wielding it and might do the same to the comrades.
Happy result-watching.
| Won | Leading | Possible
Total (Won + Leading) |
|
| CPN (Maoist) |
19 | 57 | 76 |
| Nepali Congress |
5 | 25 | 30 |
| CPN (UML) |
5 | 20 | 25 |
| MPRF | 1 | 10 | 11
|
| Other | 2 | 7
|
9
|
The Maoists could win an absolute majority (difficult but possible) or they could form an alliance with the UML (more likely) or the NC. The chances of a "permanent revolution" against the bourgeois diminishes with anything short of an overwhelming majority.
Another possibility, which will depend as the rest of th results come in, and something I am sure many people on Sajha will be aghast to hear is a Congress-MPRF alliance. If the current trend of the combined left (Maoist+UML+NKMP) count over 50% continues then the Maoists will likely be the dominant party in power with help from the UML and that will be it for the Congress - time to sit in the opposition and retrospect. (Honestly, I think the NC is long overdue for that) But if that trend does not hold true, then this thing is still wide open and we could end up with a different type of government than being forecasted by the Sajha punditocracy.
And even if the Maoists come to power, while that is not what I want, I dont think it is the end of the world either. Power in Nepal tends to completely destroy those wielding it and might do the same to the comrades.
Happy result-watching.
Last edited: 12-Apr-08 05:07 PM