It seems, maoist are heading to majority. I think, it will surely become the largest party if not win the majority. They are leading well in almost all the counts so far, and they will do even better in proportional ballets, because, several NC and UML voters have chosed them for proportional seat due to their slogan - Give a chance to maoist this time. Congress has done as it was expected to do and UML got landslide defeat. Perhaps, (as someone said) UML might need to go Jungle to re-gain its old-age attraction. Otherwise, we will see a flood of party-switching middle layer leaders joing maoist leaving UML.

The massive loss of UML is due to several reasons -

(1) overconfident 

(2) its NGO-INGO loving cadres, who knows how to make sweet-talks, but no time to spend with people; who knows how to capture position in party and government, but no honest effort to serve the position.

(3) vegetarian politics - never take risk but try to grab opportunity

(4) too flexible policy

(5) failure to defend attacks against them from both extreme right and left corner.

(6) failure to understand ethnic interest and inclusive representation, they are understood like bahun's party, even if they have a number of non-bahuns, because people like pradeep nepal, modnath prashrit etc. have repeatedly hurt ethnic sentiments.