Posted by: shivanagar April 4, 2008
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0 
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I guess it would be 0.9
0.8+ 0.2 *0.5=0.9
and to validate the results, I write a code in R, (you can do it in EXCEL to, to randomize events and see output, with 1000 samples each time, i did 10 times. and in those 10 times I got
0.9,0.89,0.91, 0.8667, 0.893, 0.9, 0.91, 0.8667, 0.92, 0.87
0.8+ 0.2 *0.5=0.9
and to validate the results, I write a code in R, (you can do it in EXCEL to, to randomize events and see output, with 1000 samples each time, i did 10 times. and in those 10 times I got
0.9,0.89,0.91, 0.8667, 0.893, 0.9, 0.91, 0.8667, 0.92, 0.87