Bibas, you are on the edge.....It should be very similar to this, unless Maoists capture booths and mobilize its terrorists youths in the name of YCL......I would have thought of UML for majority, had maoists (terrorists) were not there....but my guess goes like this:

If fair election:

Congress: 45%

UML: 40%

Terrorists (Maoists): 2%

Others: 13%

If these Maoists terrorists capture booths (very likely to happen as Madhav Kumar Nepal said),

Congress: 38%

UML: 30%

Terrorists: 25%

Others:7%