By RYAN SAGER

anuary 28, 2008 -- TOMORROW in Florida, Rudy Giuliani will make what is expected to be his last stand of the '08 race. What went wrong?

As an early (2006) believer in his capacity to become this race's frontrunner, I'd have to say that he's run a campaign that deserves to lose.

While he focused strategically on Florida and the Feb. 5 states, he undermined this by pitching his campaign thematically to Iowa and other parts of the GOP least likely to vote for him.

Now, should Giuliani lose tomorrow and overall, the media blame will fall mainly on his much-maligned late-state strategy. But it's tough to see any other path he could have taken.

As Giuliani told reporters on Thursday in Boca Raton: "It was the best choice when you consider all the circumstances that were presented to us about resources and strengths and weaknesses and the place where you can make your case most effectively."

Indeed, it was. It was always a risky strategy - but a pro-choice New York City ex-mayor has no safe strategy for chasing the GOP nomination.

Yet it was also a plausible strategy. Anyone knocking it should have to answer how better Giuliani could've invested his resources. Poured money into Iowa, where even Mitt Romney was washed away by the surprise rise of Mike Huckabee? Bet the farm on South Carolina, where he would've been a long shot?

This, though, brings us to New Hampshire. He needed to make a stand somewhere early on, placing high if not winning; his campaign recognized that the Granite State was the place for a northeastern, moderate Republican to do that.

In fact, as late as early December, he was second in New Hampshire. He invested significant money and time in the state in late '07. But when he started losing ground to a resurgent John McCain, instead of fighting for the moderate vote, he fled to Florida, finishing fourth in New Hampshire.

Why was Giuliani so hard pressed to compete in New Hampshire? That's where his strategic issues intersected with the problems with his message.

Giuliani was running a hard-right campaign, and that didn't play in New Hampshire, a state with a moderate GOP electorate. He wasted most of the fall dueling with Romney over who hates immigrants more.

Both candidates are full of it on the issue - neither had shown any interest in the border until they were told the GOP base was in revolt over it - and it hasn't ended up determining the GOP primaries anyway. Who ultimately won New Hampshire and South Carolina? The "amnesty" candidate, McCain.

His back up against the wall in December and early January, Giuliani's backup strategy was to start playing the terrorism card. While he had been knocked unfairly throughout 2007 for being the "9/11 candidate" (back then, he actually talked about his record in New York City ad nauseam, not 9/11), he started playing into the worst stereotypes of himself.

In January, he launched a sickening ad packed with images of protesting Muslims, bombings and Osama bin Laden. The message was clear: Terrorists want to kill your children! Vote Rudy!

In recent weeks, like his rivals, Giuliani turned to an economic message - and even to some local pandering, including support for a federal hurricane-insurance fund - but it all looks like too little, too late.

For a time, the prospect of a Giuliani candidacy excited those of us who think the GOP has gone wildly off course under President Bush - with out-of-control spending and pandering to the Christian Right. And to those of us who think the Republican Congress' tear against immigrants is both bigoted and unwise politically.

But faced with deficits to make up on abortion and past support for gay rights, Giuliani pursued a strategy that systematically dismantled everything that once made his candidacy appealing to his core supporters. The man who was once supposed to extend the GOP's reach outside of the South - in states like New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, California - instead played a southern strategy.

The best thing Giuliani can do now is to bow out gracefully should he come up with anything less than a win tomorrow. He had his chance and wasted it: The least he can do now is stop wasting our time.

editor@ryansager.com