Posted by: timetraveller May 4, 2007
Making Money with Eminitrader
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Well Bri, the survey I saw that was mentioned on Tv said explicitly "individuals" so i would say they are largely specultors. Emini on the other hand mentiond Commercials- those are the guys who actually use futures trading for pure hedging purposes. For example an exporter hedging fluctuations in forex prices using futures. Commercials are the producers of grain and agricultural products and others such as energy- the MAIN reason why futures exchanges exist. So the COT, which stands for Commitment Of Traders, shows how many long and short positions are held by these "Commercials"- vs the non commercial users, i.e. the speculators. In either case we both mentioned speculatos being net short. But according to emini, COT report also showed Commercials are LONG meaning they're bullish. so there's no reason to fear a bearish revarsal since futures market pretty much dictates the stock market (in a general sense.) There's a lot of literature avalable on the COT. Coincidence that I was reading it just a couple of days ago Regarding TM Bri, its definitely not a google but it's def the ass kicker. Everyone's flocking to it. the recent reversal is only temporary. theres plenty of reason to believe it'll go up. But we cant argue it cant go down. Hence I have the price level that i would like to enter that will satisfy me and an exit and also a stop. We also have to realize that fundamentally the auto industry is cyclical. Perhaps in a decade or so, maybe in 2 or three decades, Ford and GM will rebound and toyota will be worthless. I recently milked FORD for some money during the market correction. I was short and bagged more than 10% on the downside. But I also gie 50% of the credit to good fortune on my part. By the way, I think FORD is a good short again. Mind you. That is a purely technical view.
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