Posted by: eminitrader March 2, 2007
Making Money with Eminitrader
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Duke, This is probably the first post where you haven't talked about my religion or something utterly rubbish, So I'll reply. China has as much to lose by dumping US tresuries as US. They have to keep buying US treasuries in order to keep their exports cheap. China has become a bigger player but they are nowhere compared to the US in finance. China's 10% decline was less than what the S&P lost this week. The unwinding of the carry trade was the main catalyst for the major sell-off. I did not bring that up as my reason because even though few people read my posts here, they are not asking much questions and I did not want to mention carry trade and confuse them. I am not sure about the Russians but the Japanese and Chinese do not really want the dollar to depreciate much. Yuan has a positive corelation to Yen. Usually the funds that have a lot of exposure to the carry trade are small funds and they use huge leverage. Some of the funds are going to get bust soon, not Goldman. Not sure how much exposure Goldman has to sub-prime mortgage lenders but if they have a huge exposure the US government/Fed would step in and start cutting interest rates. They are not going to let GS go down. If this sell-off is only because of the effects of carry-trade then it is a huge buying oppotunity. Only time will tell. The reason I mentioned GS is because I did a historical analysis between GS and the market. When GS is outperforming S&P, you can buy S&P when it is underperforming, sell S&P. By the way what makes a person Nepali? If it is Nepali citizenship and passport then I still have those. My parents are both Nepali citizens too.
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