Posted by: eminitrader March 2, 2007
Making Money with Eminitrader
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This week the market had the worst decline in 4 years. It is NOT the right time to try to be brave and buy. I will like to see this market consolidate here or go slightly lower. Everytime the market will try to go up from here we'll see more sellers come in. It might be few months before we can be 100% long. I'd like the market come down to 1300-1320(S&P). Then I'll be bullish. Right now I'll sell any rallies. I closed most of my short positions today as I had a nice profits on those. I'll NOT recommend shorting to most of the people but now Cash is king. I had previously discussed that one of my Sell rules is 1% true selling day when the 3 of the 5 indexes go down about 1% on the same day. Usually when that happens after a run up, it is prudent to sell part of the portfolio. You don't have to sell 100% and go to cash the first time it happens but it is necessary to cut down on the exposure by about 25% each time it happens. If you had followed that 1 rule, you could have saved a lot of money. I was able to get into cash before the massacare. These sell-offs do not appear out of the blue, usually there is internal weakness before the sell-off. If the market goes up before it goes down to 1360, I'll just wait it to get to about 1450 before building my short position. Take a look at the daily chart of S&P for October 1998. This market looks similar to that and we saw a mini-crash in October 1998. I would not be surprised if we see something similar in March-April.
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