Posted by: eminitrader February 27, 2007
Making Money with Eminitrader
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Wow Latoboy, I know I was wrong on CYPB. Big Deal. I'm wrong on many picks but when I know I'm wrong I get out at the break of support. it's when I'm right I make big which helps to offset other losses. Actually my win/loss ratio is less than 50% but my win % is way bigger than loss %. I don't know what the market will do tomorrow or in 3 months. I'm playing probability. For example in the past whenever X, Y and Z happened the market went up 75% of the time. In this case if the same thing happens I'll buy, but there is always that 25% chance that the market will go down and if that happens I'll get out. I'll know when it is the 25% because I'll have a loss and I sell my position at a loss. Last month I had mentioned that the market was ready to correct. It is impossible to pick the top or a bottom but I knew that I needed to be careful because all my analysis was pointing to a sell-off. I was waiting for a catalyst and when the market sold off after making a new high(SP around 1460), I knew it was close to the top. The last week's price action made me pretty bearish but I was not expecting such a huge sell-off today. So why is this market down. Fundamentally nothing has changed since last week or a month ago. It is all because of liquidity. People think market goes up or down because of valuations but that is not always the case. It goes up and down because of money-supply. Chinese government increased the reserve ratios for the banks, it dried up lot of liquidity so they had to sell stocks and commodities in order to maintain the cash. It is as simple as that. They had been doing this for more than a month and I became bearish a month ago. Long-term we are still in an uptrend but we will get more opportunity to buy at a lower price. Usually after such a sell-off there is an after shock which we shall see either tomorrow or on Thursday. Look for HSI, buy US stocks when it HSI stops going down. In the past foreign markets used to follow US now US markets follow HSI. If HSI is down, then sell, if it is up then buy. Here is a parting gift. I deleted the average prices and stuff. This is from the morning. The maeket was down big and I had been adding to my short positions for a while. This will be my last post here because I have been busy with other stuff. Good Luck.
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