Posted by: isolated freak October 12, 2006
North Korea explodes bomb : Press coverage
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"It is unlikely that China will sideline with Japan as Isolated_Freek assume. Historical relationships and the Koizumi's Yasukuni shrine are enough to say so. Japan has scared with China because of China's economic growth and economic forecasts of being superpower in future. " General, I thouroughly enjoyed reading your analysis. Like I said in my very post to this thread, I am not that well read on this issue... but since you have raised a very interesting point, let me throw my views again on the China-Japan issue: I still believe that on the issue of NK, China and Japan will not have much of policy disputes. Historical relationships are quite important these days, I agree, and Japan's atrocities including the Nanking massacre are still not forgotten in China. However, the Chinese and Japanese leaders are pragmatic. They can set aside the historical issues for what is happening now in Asia, and that is why Abe graced Beijing with his first overseas visit to signal that Tokyo is willing to mend its ties with Beijing and Seoul. China does not want a nuclear NK because it already has too many nuclear armed (Russia, India and Pakistan) or potentially de-stable countries (Central Asian states) in its neighborhood. No matter how good of a relations you have with your neighboring countries, the last thing you want it to become is a nuclear power because it significantly alters the status quo and balance of power in the long run, if not in the short run. The historical issues will keep on surfacing in China -Japan relations, but given that China is Japan's largest trading partner and a major regional, if not a global, player, the Japanese leadership will be forced to take China seriously. In other words, Abe is in no position to act/behave like Koizumi. The Chinese govt. has shown quite a flexible and pragmatic attitude when dealing with Japan. The historical issues were set aside when Japan and China started trading in the early 1950s, and when they established diplomatic relations in the early 70s. If I remember the words clearly, after signing the Peace and Friednship Treaty that led to the restoration of diplomatic ties between the two countries, the then Chinese PM Zhou Enlai told reporters that "the future generation will decide on the historical issue." So the issue of history is without a doubt one important aspect, but not the most important aspect of China-Japan relations. The LDP is in a dillemma. If the leaders stop visiting the Yasukuni shrine, then they will not be getting the votes from the families of the soldiers who died during the Second World War to establish "The Great East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere" or to give a face to the concept of "Dai Nippon Teikoku." And the Chinese leadership undertands this Japanese dillemma.. The rewriting of history textbooks is a long process and both countries realize this, however what can happen now is, Abe will visit Yasukuni but as a private citizen and without the full media glare. Beijing and Seoul will denounce the visit but not in harsh terms like they denounced Koizumi's visit. This way both sides will be able to save face, and despite a hurdle here and there, will be able to have a woirking relations.. and that is what matters in China and Japan now.. and if I were to judge by what has happened in the last few days, I think the Chinese and Japanese leaders have agreed on this. But again, I could be totally mistaken..
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