Posted by: Nepe June 26, 2005
Login in to Rate this Post:
0 
? 
?
On a prejudiced conclusion published in Nepali Times
From: Deepak Khadka
To: . . . .
Cc: . . . .
Sent: Friday, May 20, 2005 4:07 PM
Subject: Missing "republicans" located in "80%"
Bravo Pramodji !
You located the missing "republicans" in 80% of mis-labeled crowd.
I do hope those friends of ours who have been using "5%" proof for dismissing republicanism in various public forums will now use diligence to use the questionable data and prejudiced conclusion.
I have already explained the questionability of the data. For my new assertion that the analysts presented prejudiced conclusion, please refer to the widely read and referred summary of the report published in Nepali Times. (I believe that's what most of us have read) http://www.nepalitimes.com/issue239/headline.htm
Read the following sentence in the summary:
"The people overwhelmingly reject republicanism. ."
I am a professional scientist myself. I was shocked to see Sharma and Sen claiming to have obtained this ANSWER to the QUESTION they never asked.
Even more shocking was to see some MGers taking it as the ultimate truth and spreading the good news like a wild fire. (my apology for being dramatic, but "5%" proof has really dramatically hurt the cause of republicanism.)
So I humbly request all to use deligence while using the data and statements from AC Nielsen Nepal Pvt Ltd, Survey 2005.
And thank you Pramodji for identifying some bases for a proposal of a New Middle Ground.
The old Middle Ground stands on "Fear factors".
The new Middle Ground should be based and realism and some "Dare Factors".
That's all from me for today.
But I will continue to be a part of learning and discovering the new, realistic and bold Middle Ground.
Deepak Khadka
----- Original Message -----
From: "Aryal, Pramod" <. . . . . . . . . >
Sent: Friday, May 20, 2005 10:53 AM
Subject: RE: Post using real name please
> Shiva jee,
> First of all let me talk about Dinesh Prasain. I just did not listen to
> his talk, I know him very closely too and we spent several hours
> together after the talk. The word "middle ground" is not the one about
> the paper, but one that explains the path to choose between two
> intimidating forces, Maoists and monarchists with guns.
>
> Now going through the statistics, 5% monarchists, 5% republican and 80%
> constitutional monarchists(?).
>
> I think the statistics is 5% absolute monarchists, 5% absolute
> republican (Maoists type), and 80% constitutional forces.
> Now it is time to dissect these 80%.
> In my opinion the society is divided into 5 main streams of thoughts.
> The respective 5% are two thoughts and remaining 80% is divided into
> three more separate thoughts who are loosely knitted but their can be a
> major shift of their thoughts.
>
> One thought among these 80% is that they want soft landing for monarch.
> This group comprises of people who think that going for outright
> republicanism might create blood bath before reaching that point. Second
> group in this comprise of people who think that Nepal can not handle
> republicanism and the void and vacuum created by this might take Nepal
> to a kind of civil war, or military junta. Third group in this category
> are from so called inherent elites who have benefited from feudalistic
> class, either by being member of that house, the house of Shahs and
> Ranas, their coteries, the Thapas, Basnyats, Pandeys (Chetri Pandeys).
> Raj Guru Khalaks, like Dixit, Satyal, Aryal, and other Brahmins who have
> been in Kathmandu for three to four generations atleast, other Brahmins
> who have served house of Shahs or Ranas, like Dhakal, Rimal, Bhattarai,
> Pahari, Dhungana etc. who have been in Kathmandu for at least two to
> four generations. The business community, the Newars like Amatya groups,
> Pancha Kanya Groups, Chaudhari group, Golcha house. And beneficiaries
> during Panchayat rule, the newar community and Brahmin/Chetri where the
> bureaucracy was divided like one secretary from newar and one secretary
> from Bahun/Chetri.
>
> Out of these three groups, first two groups would eventually come
> towards people if the greater mass will think otherwise, and would feel
> sorry for the situation would devote time and energy to overcome this.
> The third group, will splinter into two factions, and one faction will
> join the group with monarchists 5% till the end and if monarchists will
> lose the battle then eventually join the people force to safe guard
> their inherent interest and these will be more vocal democrats. Other
> faction will join peoples group because they are the most opportunistic
> class, and they can sense the change coming. Like in 2007 BS, this class
> changed their plate on house from Shri 3, to Shri 5 as soon as the
> revolution prevailed.
>
> So in changed pretext, new statistics should be a merging point. Now the
> new middle ground is:
>
> People Empowerment where people will decide the fate of monarchy and
> Maoists alike. This middle point will bring Republican democrats to
> accept that people are the ultimate decision makers. These republican
> democrats though espousing republican sentiment, but can not forge
> alliance with Maoists due to their ideology and methods. This group
> consists of large number of UML cadres and followers, greater chunk
> (substantial) of younger generation cadres and followers of NC (both).
> Those still having thoughts of constitutional monarchy want the monarchy
> to stay but with more less power and they will accept the term
> empowering people and people deciding the fate of monarchy but not going
> to republic. If the majority of people having faith in people
> empowerment will decide for republican set up, these group will join the
> republic without much revolt against republic but grudgingly saying that
> this should not have happened, and we should always keep option open
> about bringing monarchy back.
>
> So we got to wait, how this people empowerment group, the 80% of pre Feb
> 1, will shift the paradigm and go ahead. Thus now the middle ground
> paper that we talk much about will have paradigm shift, and instead of
> asking King to be constitutional monarch, it should as for empowerment
> of people and king should heed to the peoples aspiration, then we will
> have perfect middle ground or third lane in two lane traffic. There is
> always small shoulder in traffic lane, and during constructions, these
> shoulders are used to make a lane for flow of traffic, so we should not
> worry about creating a third lane from this space.
>
> Pramod