It is interesting to note that the future contract on tradesports.com on Cardinal RATZINGER was just 20c prior to the announcement i.e. market was giving him only 20% chance of being the Pope. But his chances rose during the conclave from around 10% to 20%. Cardinal ARINZE of Nigeria was supposed to be hot but his contract never went above 15c. Cardinal TETTAMANZI of Italy had the highest contract at 25c trading started on 4/4 but it steadily fell to around 10% at the begining of the conclave and to about 8c today. On one hand, it looks like Cardinal RATZINGER is a compromise candidate. He is 78 and it is highly unlikely that he is going to have as long tenure as Pope JPII. On the other hand, Cardinal RATZINGER's election is not suprising in retrospect given his very orthodox interpretation of Catholic doctrine. Whether he addresses the economic issues the way Pope JPII did will have to be seen. And I'd ain't sure about his charisma.