Posted by: nispaksha February 27, 2005
Nepal after one year
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Good analysis dada giri ji, Post 2/1 developments are not so much encouraging for the government. The dominant hypothesis of King's advisors that international powers can not ignore the possible threat of maoist (whatever be its cost) now appears to have been failed. International powers gave clear signals that they do not want to desert political parties. However, King's step has increasingly made role of political parties IRRELEVANT in domestic politics at least in the short run. After 2/1, political parties are so humiliated (more is coming when Corruption Commission starts its bulldozer) that the task of confidence building between king and political parties is very difficult if not impossible. That means role of international powers will be not be so significant and they will largely remain passive with just a wait-and-see policy. Who is gaining form this development? Certainly, Maoists. Because, government needs active supports (military, financial and diplomatic) from foreign powers whereas all maoists need form international powers is not-active-opposition-to-them....which they are getting now! Someone might argue that governmnet can run the war machine by its own resources? But it is much easier said than done. See, World Bank canceled 70 million budgetary support aid (not project or program tied aid). The key challenge for the government in the coming days would be to manage economy and government finance. When the war is escalated to a new hight, we can not expect the economy to continue as before. The effect then will be unbalanced public finance and possibility of high inflation. Increased unemployement (especially in development sector) might creat panic among middle class. We have not yet experienced such crisis as civil servants not receiving monthly pay or inflation of say over 100 %. Under such situation, winning a civil war is not an easy task. Anyway, days of much more hardship alongwith unimagined scale of bloodshed seems to be ahead. Lord pashupati nath le yo snakat ko ghadi ma sabai lai satbuddhi deun !
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