Good guess, Nepali bhai. The first two possibilites are beyond resonable doubt. I do not think the third is likey to happen though. We have been talking about a split in the Maoist ranks for sometime now. No doubt internal divisions will remain, but I don't think the party's going to break though. Either the whole party will be taken in confidence by other political parties--though there will be dissents within the maoists, no doubt--or vice-versa. The open split of the Maoists will only embolden the Royalists. I think maoists understand this well. Even if there are factions inside the party, which i think is the case, it is unlikely that they would to anything to make their case weaker.