The age old adage that was pronounced by the present King's ancestor, Prithivi Narayan Shah, the uniter of Nepal, that Nepal is like a ginger sandwiched between two giant neighbours is again being played out in the geo-political arena. China is the beneficiary of the current royal coup. King Gyanendra is playing the China trump card in the current situation up his sleeve. He seems to be taking a calculated risk with Nepal's future. This is not to say that the political parties & the rebels are not free of blame for creating this crisis. There are certain events in the near past that is very co-incidental or cicumstanial which needs to be analyzed. It was only last week that Nepal shut down the Dalai Lama's Tibet Office in Kathmandu and reiterated the One China Policy, ie, Tibet and Taiwan are a part of China. This was appeasement to the Chinese leadership by the Nepali government. Then comes the royal takeover of the Nepal within couple of days of this declaration. India, US, UK & UN condemn the King's moves, but, China says that its Nepal's internal affairs. Then, Xinhua News Agency from China is one of the first news agency to broadcast the King's new cabinet list in spite of the communication black out in Nepal. Recently, again the Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesman has said that the Nepali Maoists are not true followers of Mao. To quote, "This group is totally irrelevant with Mao Zedong. We also feel unsatisfied with the connection between their ideals and Mao Zedong Thought." Chinese have equated the Nepali Maoists as terrorists. This is an indication that the King is playing the China vs India game in this political crisis. Why is the King using the China trump card has couple of possibilities: 1) Security Council: If the political situation in Nepal worsens, ie, the political leaders are kept under house arrest indefinitely, human rights violation through battling the insurgency, freedom of speech censored & basic fundamental rights curtailed, then, the international community will call for sanctions against Nepal. This sanctions have to be monitored by the UN and the Security Council. China has the veto in the Security Council to prevent this due to the fact that Nepal shut down the Tibet Office and again officially proclaimed a One China policy. 2) Military Aid: India, US & UK have given enough military assistance for the Nepali Army to be self-sustainable for a while. If they are unwilling to provide further assistance, the King will look northwards which the Indians will not let happen at any cost even if that means supporting the Royal agenda. Therefore, India is stuck in a dilemma. They have a choice of letting Chinese military hardware and assistance come into their sphere of influence or support the King's takeover. 3) International Financial Assistance: Nepal is a developing nation that depends upon international aid. The international community, ie, India, US, UK, EU & Japan could suspend aid to Nepal which will only lead to further creation of failed state like Afghanistan which the international community, especially, the US & UK does not want in their Global War on Terror. For India, there is a danger of another Kashmir in the making. However, this time Nepal's borders are much more porous. The Indian Naxalites and the Maoists already have a nexus with the Nepali Maoists so it is imperative for India not to let Nepal become a failed state in their own self-interest. Recently, China & Nepal have agreed to survey the possibilites of further building three highways to connect Nepal and China in various parts of Nepal. This is an indication that China now demonstrates more vested interest in Nepal. China now is an emerging global super power and is able to provide international aid to Nepal is they wish due to their economic performance and dominance. 4) Official Visits: The Crown Prince made a visit to China recently and was feted by the Chinese. The King's first visit to India was postponed due to the death of the former Indian PM. The second visit was postponed due to a religious ceremony in Kathmandu. It is hard to fathom that a state visit to a crucial neighbour would be hampered by a mundane religious ritual when there are greater matters of the state to be dealth with. This was a lame excuse period. Did the South Block give the thumbs down to the King or there were unresolved issues that made the visit to India impossible? It seems that the Indians were taken by huge surprise by the King's takeover of the government. They had no clue. They area still unable to make direct contact with the palace, the government or the army to assess the current situation. The King and his advisors have either made this assessment keeping in mind of self preservation of his monarchy and the kingdom. If this is the case then it is a calculated geo-political move. Or the King basically snubbed the Indians for their ever fluid alliance and concerns with his China trump card. Or the King's attempt to use China vs India will backfire on him. Only time will tell...