Posted by: Poonte January 26, 2005
China becoming super power!!!
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What a wonderful opportunity to almost totallly agree with ISO! I cherish it! I don't have much time to indulge in a lengthy discussion here, but just a couple of quick comments: >> Isolated Freak: "America became a superpower because of it's strategic location." and, "1. It won't be on the best American interests if China becomes a superpower. 2. Japan will be an obstacle in China's rise. 3. Russia will not want a superpower in it's neighborhood. 4. Any rise in China's defense capacity will alter the regional balance of pwoer.. and India will have to increase its defense standing, and Pakistan will be forced to do so, just to maintain the balance of power in South Asia." I couldn't agree with you more on both of the above, ISO. Even though strategic geopolitics, which is the key to becoming a superpower, includes much more than just geographic location, the latter definitely plays a large and very important role in the former. The US remaining territorially unaffected (due to to it's strategic isolation) by the two world wars definitely helped it become powerful enough to ensure it's control over the world until now. On the second quote, however, I have this to say: It is very true that one country becoming a superpower can hardly be conceived as beneficial to it's rivals. The countries you have mentioned -- Russia, Japan, US, India -- and may I add possibly the EU too -- may very well cringe at the idea that China becomes much more powerful than it is today. However, I personally doubt that they can do anything more than just make it difficult for China to rise: once can only put some pressures and play some clever games to slow the inevitable, but can they stop it? I doubt it. It's like watching a Tsunami approaching -- you can either run, or begin to hastily build stronger walls to protect yourself, but sooner or later the waves will overwhelm you. Economic analysts have already predicted that the Chinese Yuan will take over US dollar as a major currency of the world within the next 25-30 years. (I can't remember exactly where I read it -- most likely The Economist) Recent Chinese purchase of the IBM, and it's powerful moves to build strong economic alliance with the Latin American giants (not only for oil, but also for steel and other raw materials that Brazil, Argentina and Chile have plenty of) are strong indications that China has a long term stragegic plan to at least rival the only superpower, if not topple it. China is not foolish enough either to proclaim it's intentions -- raato jhanda koushi ma farfaraundai -- outright and take aggressive moves to achieve it's goals, which they seem to know will only backfire. So far, they have clearly demonstrated their adriotness in carefully maneuvering political and diplomatic fronts, while going forth with building rapid and strong economic strategy. Therefore, yes the difficulties will be there, some of them extreme; and achieving political and military superiority may not be as easy as acquiring economic superiority, but China, as I see it, is definitely on the path towards becoming as powerful, if not more, as the US, call it becoming a superpower or else. And, as I said earlier, the rivals can be apprehensive about China's growth, but they can do little to stop it. Slow it down a bit, they may. aru ni dherai lekhna man thiyo...tyam maru!
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