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card_chaiyoo
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Starting a thread to put some lights on people who are waiting for TPS Extension.

1.Hope:
a. Supreme Court Decision Extension for another Term either 12 months or 18 months.
b. Democrats win both Senate seats in Special Election in Georgia which is highly unlikely given the turnout rates and data from the Election held on Nov 3rd. Republicans only need one seat of two to hold the senate and make Biden Non-Funcational President. Democrats try to Flip Maine Susan Collins, Senator Lindsey Graham South Carolina, and Iowa seats Joni Ernst but failed. Although this is the first time Georgia turned from Red to Blue Special thanks to Stacey Abrams. But mostly because of large voters Turn out. Which I guess will be less likely given the enthusiasm.

So the reality after January 5th would be Senate controlled by Republicans and house controlled by Democrats. Most of the bills will be blocked by Republicans to make the failed Democratic president. As they would label all the ideas are far left. Republicans will never allow either DACA| TPS to be a citizen because they know if they are allowed to vote in the Future they would vote for Democrats. So at this point, all the TPS folks should have less faith for citizenship in Biden Administration unless a miracle happens and a couple of republican joins the Democrats side when bills are passed but if you look in past all the decision are made on a party line. So looking at past Democrats can do a couple of changes but nothing major or reversal will happen. Take this statement with a grain of salt. Being said that now what's the hope for TPS people who are left in limbo in the current situation. The only hope is somehow the court gives another extension for either 12 months or 18 months. The hard reality is if Republicans hold the senate TPS to Citizenship is a dream until the next election 2024 or midterm election 2022. I see barely any hope in both as Democrats are on the losing side given how many seats are up for grabs for republicans.

So now all we can do at this moment is just wait for what the Court has to say and there is nothing much. Biden doesn't take the office until Jan 20th and TPS expires on Jan 4th. So I am not quite sure how can a president side or go against the court if the court decides not to do any extension and ask people to leave the country and follow the law.

Would love to see if any of you have any different perspective on a given scenario.
This is the hard reality whether Adhikar or TPS alliance told you the same or different story.
Would love to see input from the people who are more knowledgeable in subject matter rather than argument if Nepalese should have a permanent residence based on TPS.

Jai Nepal

mangale
· Snapshot 7
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I already explained this in previous thread : Just wait for USCIS to publish the memo soon for updated Expiration date, ( Worst case earliest March 4, probable April 4, best case scenario October 4 2021). The best of the best scenario Biden blanketly extend 18 months for all TPS countries and tell congress to pass Permanent Residency which will drag for another decade. To pass major immigration legislation, senate need 60 votes, so go figure. This will be possible only the bipartisan bill is drafted . Until now there is no bipartisan immigration bill. Last time there was bipartisan bill was around 2006-8 I believe, it passed Senate but got hold up in House if I am not mistaken. So this is very long long shot.
card_chaiyoo
· Snapshot 182
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@ Mangale,
Sorry bro maybe I didn't saw your post that why created a new one. No harm though.

The best of the best scenario Biden blanketly extends 18 months for all TPS countries and tells Congress to pass Permanent Residency which will drag for another decade.
Mangale bro the House has already passed the bill in 2019 when they regain the majority called Dreamers Act. It has never cleared the Senate as it has been and it will be controlled by Republicans. Also, I guess to pass the bill they don't need 60 votes. It has been already changed by Chuck Schumer, You just need 51 votes I could be wrong but if in Georgia Special Election if Democrats could regain two seats then VP Kamala Harris could cast a tie-breaker vote and the bill could be in President's desk for final sign off.

When Large Voter Turn out they voted for Joe Biden but at the same time, they also voted for the Republican Senate.
David Purdue holds 49.7 % vote whereas Democrat Jon Ossof only holds 47.9 % although backed by Obama before Election.
In another race, Kelly Loeffler is also ahead. Republicans have a huge advantage and more confidence in holding Senate.
Also, the Supreme court is also held by a more conservative judge with a ratio of 6-3. So, I don't see any potential or dreams for any immigration reform for another 2-4 years.
It will be again Political agenda for Democrats in 2024. As of now, Joe Biden has no plan of running for reelection and we don't know how often TPS will get the extended year over year. As this is not on the President's table but on Court and I still don't think President will power to change the outcome of the Court Rule or just put another Extension without any humanitarian cause. As of now, Nepal has recovered from most of the Earthquake given that we are inclining towards stability.

Jai Nepal
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