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| paramendra | Posted
on 07-Nov-02 07:07 PM
Democracy In China: Inevitable, And To Be The Work Of A Domestic Movement (I believe it is only a matter of time before China too will be a full-fledged multi-party democracy, and the change will be the work of a domestic movement, more than anything else. Sorry, a rare occasion of the use of copy and paste for me. Could not find a neat web address.) http://www.oneworld.net/ World - OneWorld.net Chinese Dissidents Press Petitions On Eve of Party Congress Thu Nov 7,11:52 AM ET Jim Lobe,OneWorld US Chinese dissidents are pressing for far-reaching policy reforms on the eve of the 16th Communist Party Congress which is scheduled to get underway in Beijing Friday. • Human Rights in China • Human Rights Watch • Asian Human Rights Commission • OneWorld on China An open letter was sent to the Congress signed by 192 opposition activists from 17 provinces and cities, including Beijing and Shanghai, in what human rights activists said is the largest nationwide political action in recent years. The signatories are making six political demands, according to a copy of the letter that was translated and circulated earlier this week by New York-based Human Rights in China (HRIC). Among the most important are a formal reassessment by the Party of the 1989 pro-democracy movement--denounced by the authorities as a "counter-revolutionary rebellion"--and compensation for those killed in the brutal crackdown that followed. They are also asking that political exiles be permitted to return to China and that all political prisoners be released. The letter's demands echoed those made in another open letter circulated by Lin Mu, an independent intellectual and former secretary to Hu Yaobang, a top Communist reformist whose death in 1989 sparked public demonstrations that became the pro-democracy movement. It also called for a reassessment and the release of political prisoners, as well as the adoption of a process for dialogue and consultation among all groups to help open up the political system. The upcoming Congress, which last convened five years ago, is expected to confirm the formal retirement of 76-year-old Chinese President and Party General-Secretary Jiang Zemin and his replacement by Hu Jintao. Who else will be elected to the Politburo's Standing Committee, however, is a matter of intense speculation, as is the question of whether Jiang will retain his chairmanship of the Central Military Commission, the post from which the late Deng Xiaoping continued to exercise decisive influence long after he left the Standing Committee in 1987. The Congress is also expected to rally behind the major policy initiatives of the Party, including its recent decision to permit free-market entrepreneurs to become members and even rise to senior positions. There is little indication yet that the Congress, which is ordinarily carefully orchestrated, will be receptive to any of the dissident appeals. In the past few days two prominent democracy activists, Fang Jue and Xu Wanping, were detained by the authorities while others reported increased surveillance of their movements, according to HRIC, which has an office in Hong Kong, as well as New York. The group said the arrests signaled the Party's determination to make the Congress--which will bring some 2,000 delegates to Beijing--free of any possible disruptions. The Washington Post reported Wednesday that the government has banned most hotels in Beijing from accommodating members of the mainly Muslim Uighur ethnic minority from Xinjiang province in northwestern China. Authorities were reported to have told some of the hostellers that they were concerned about possible demonstrations designed to embarrass the government during the Congress over its harsh crackdown against suspected nationalist and religious Uighurs it has accused of "terrorism." In addition to a reassessment of the 1989 crackdown against the pro-democracy movement and the release of political prisoners, the letter signed by the 192 dissidents calls for the restoration of Zhao Zhiyang's political rights and his release from 13 years of house arrest. While Communist Party General Secretary in 1989, Zhao, a close associate of Hu Yaobang, tried tirelessly to negotiate a peaceful solution with the students who occupied Tiananmen Square and opposed the order to have the military clear it. He was immediately removed from his post and replaced by Jiang. The petitioners also urged the National People's Congress to quickly ratify the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights which China signed in 1998 but has yet to apply to its domestic law. In addition, they want the system of town and village elections which have spread over much of China over the last several years to be expanded to national elections. The letter gives credit to China's rules for its economic record, but notes that "fairly good economic development cannot conceal increasingly visible and deep social threats. The problem is that because of the rejection of systematic political reform, because of the rejection of democracy and rule of law, corruption is worse and worse," according to the translation provided by HRIC. |
| paramendra | Posted
on 07-Nov-02 07:10 PM
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/wl/oneworld/?u http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=index&cid=655&/?u http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=655&ncid=655&e=2&u=/oneworld/20021107/wl_oneworld/1032_1036686824 |
| ashu | Posted
on 07-Nov-02 08:05 PM
Businessweek ran a cover story recently, asking whether China's high-tech growth is fast becoming a threat to Silicon Valley. For the last few months, the New York Times has been running articles, saying, in essence, that thanks to the surging economic growth in China, people there feel more free and bolder, and as a result, do not careall that much for the Party and that the Party is losing its grip/hold. Besides, the party itself has been adding a number of capitalists to its rank, therby alienating its traditional supporters, drawn primarily from trade and labor unions and peasantry. That said, we in Nepal need to understand China very carefully and need to make strategic use of its friendship if we are to leverage its growing influence for our own gain. On a larger yet simple note, there're one bllion to the north of us; another billion to the south of us. Surely, there must be something we in Nepal can sell -- something that's in our competitive advantage to sell -- to those billions of people, either directly or indirectly, to take our own steps toward collective prosperity. And in Nepal, my favorite TV channel is: CCTV - Central China Television, sort of like China's NTV, only much slicker, smarter and in English. oohi ashu ktm,nepal |
| SIWALIK | Posted
on 07-Nov-02 08:20 PM
Inevitable? Maybe! but how soon? Socioeconomic development does have a strong correlation with transition to democracy. Human development is supposed to be better indicator. Not clear--at what point does this endogenous cause produces democratic transition. But Chinese leaders are damn smart. Seven new younger leaders are taking over opening up the avenue for change. Wish I could say the same for "democratic" Nepal. So how is democracy going to reach China? Revolution or Evolution? |
| protean | Posted
on 07-Nov-02 08:24 PM
Related article. http://www.nytimes.com/2002/11/07/opinion/07SHAM.html Surely, we should also be able to adopt a means to increase business activities in our country. For China, their stength is manufacturing and knowledge industry. They also have the advantage of having Honkong as its base. For India, it is mainly the knowledge based industry. What about Nepal? Where do we stand? I remeber reading a very interesting person called Gurucharan Das, about the prospects in India. Although, it has a capitalistic stance to it, it is worth a read. Its titled, "India Unbound". It had its reviews in the NYT March 2001 period. |
| Paschim | Posted
on 07-Nov-02 10:21 PM
Glad to see this interest on China. As a young Nepali based in the Far East, I try to follow (almost as a hobby) developments in this region's three "communist" parties: China, Vietnam, and Laos. There's an immense lot our jungali zealots could learn from how their "communist" brothers and sisters have evolved here since their days of the "revolution". Alexander Gerschenkron wrote in 1962 on the "advantage of backwardness" about making giant capitalistic leaps by following the leaders, but avoiding their mistakes. His book (which I haven't read in full) -- Economic Backwardness in Historical Perspective -- is cited with respect in graduate classes of economic history. In a more humble, and simplistic fashion, young Nepali democrats today have a great challenge of playing a role within their modest means to help steer the country from the current dangers of both the extremes on the Left and the Right. Politically, so to speak, we have that mini-Gershenkronian wisdom to be inspired by. Biswo, who's our in-house Sino-expert, may shed some further light, but on issues related to China, the HK-based "Far Eastern Economic Review" is great. Do check out their recent issues that have covered China religiously (www.feer.com). The 16th Party Congress of the Chinese Communist Party begins today. The November 7 issue carried a nice 2 page summary on the whos and the whats, and a price on urban poverty as a result of SOE layoffs. The November 14 issue has the following: http://www.feer.com/articles/2002/0211_14/p030china.html Politics is too important to be left to the politicians alone; sabai citizens "sachet" rahaun! |
| SIWALIK | Posted
on 07-Nov-02 11:23 PM
Sure, Gerschenkron's book you mentioned is one of the most influential books. But the insight he has used applies more for developed countries than Third World. The book's crucial point is the tendency of late developers to follow large scale industrialization with heavy state role for the development. For developing country's dilemma, Kiren Aziz Chaudhry provides an apt critique of Gerschenkron and shows how the insight is basically flawed where the Third Wrold countries are concerned. |
| Biswo | Posted
on 08-Nov-02 12:19 AM
>Biswo, who's our in-house Sino-expert, may shed some further light, Paschim, sino-expert ta testai ho, but let me share some of my opinions. Let's face it, China currently doesn't have any effective opposition (political) party. The only serious opposition to the communist regime comes from religious zealots like Li Hongzhi (whose Falun Gong has huge following in China, and this thing I fail to understand.), some obscure Uighur Turkistani separatists (in USA, there are very few Uighurs, some intellectuals from that regions can be found in Oklohama State University, which has the major concentration of Uighur students) and of course, our nice obdurate Dalai Lama.None of them have any capability to run China, or provide any alternative to the communist regime in Beijing. Despite the prophecy of doomsayers, Zhu Rongji has actually been successful in privatizing a lot of SOEs(State Owned Enterprises), thanks due to the creation of new jobs by a lot of private enterprises and foreign investment. China still pays around US$36 billion per year as 'lay off allowance' to those who couldn't immediately find another job, but that is a cheap price to pay for peace. Sure, news of some protests came from China, but they were remarkably low in numbers.I think China is economically very strong rightnow,(With more than 250 billion dollars in reserve) and thus CCP is unlikely to get challenged by the mobs( like Suharto had to in Indonesia). Democrats are unheard of in China, their organization lacks, among other things, credibility, people don't even know of Wang Dan or Wei Jingsheng. Jiang Zemin's major challenge came from Qiao Shi, the last communist speaker of Chinese People's Congress, not from any body else in his entire tenure as president. I have a lot of friends who graduated from Beijing University, a supposed bastion of democrats. Sadly, none of them even now have any rush for creation of democratic China. "We do have democracy, sort of" they say in almost unison. Surprisingly, in my class in Shanghai, those who were ranked among top ten were vying for the membership of CCP, while those who furtively told me they opposed CCP were ranked among last ten. Coincidence? I doubt. CCP actively recruits brightest students in every universities, and if you manage to be a real good friend of a Chinese in Harvard, or MIT, I am pretty sure they will tell you that they were member of CCP (dang yuan) back in China. This fact , I consider, is one of the major elements in the longevity of CCP: it is run by the brightest of China, whether we like or not, this is the fact. --- And despite sympathizing with his holiness Dalai Lama, and with the democrats in China, I would probably never allow them to use the land of Nepal for any kind of antiChina activity If I were Nepalese leader (I am telling this more seriously than those myopic NC leaders who think opposing China is fine). Because that is never going to be in our national interest. (The same thing applies to India, and anti-Indian elements too.) We shouldn't overestimate our influence, and we need to look at our national interest. China is our good friend, and we need to reciprocate that. We can help Tibetans or Kashmiris for humanitarian reason, but the day they start troubling our neighbors, we must ask them to leave immediately. That is the most prudent foreign policy we can have. |
| ashu | Posted
on 08-Nov-02 09:19 AM
In China, like in Nepal, so-called "brightest students" (at high school and college level) are those who perfrom brilliantlly WITHIN the confines of set parameters (such as the SLCs, the IScs, the BScs and so on, where questions and answers are pretty much predictable, and the learning is routine. A more worrying question could be: Why doesn't China or for that matter Nepal produce scholars who stretch the boundaries of their fields by asking uncomfortable questios, by challenging the status quo, by upsetting the establushed elders and by taking even career-destroying risks to pursue ideas and only ideas? An example? http://www.msnbc.com/news/826475.asp#BODY ***************** Solving For Creativity China has one of the world’s richest intellectual traditions. So why can’t it produce stellar math minds? By Sarah Schafer NEWSWEEK INTERNATIONAL Nov. 4 issue — Li Junfeng, a wide-faced, moppy-haired 23-year-old earning a doctorate in mathematics at one of China’s top universities, has a problem. When he sits in his cramped dorm room talking with his fellow students about their dreams for the future, he says, “we always end up discussing these famous people.” He rattles off a list of great thinkers who have solved history’s most complicated math mysteries. The names are American, French, German, but not Chinese. “The Chinese we don’t talk about,” Li says matter-of-factly. “There aren’t that many famous ones.” IT’S A PROBLEM THAT VEXES some of China’s brightest minds: why is China so far behind the world in math? After all, this is a country with a long intellectual tradition, one that invented the abacus and may have come up with the Pythagorean theorem before it dawned on Pythagoras. Sure, Chinese high-school students consistently dazzle the world with sky-high standardized-test scores and gold medals at the International Mathematical Olympiad. But high school seems to be where they peak. Chinese scholars have contributed virtually nothing to modern mathematics research, say academics, and even optimists acknowledge the country is at least a decade behind the cutting edge. Only one Chinese-born mathematician has won the Fields Medal, the Nobel Prize of math, in its 70-year history. And that man, Yau Shingtung, is among those most worried. Now a professor at Harvard, he was stunned after recently interviewing a faculty candidate at a prominent Chinese university. “A student at that level, I wouldn’t even give a master’s degree,” he said. “I’m not pessimistic, but the problems are there.” Many of China’s leading minds believe the problem rests in the country’s competitive, test-driven education system. Primary and secondary schools stress rote memorization, and they can be brutally unforgiving of creative mavericks—one bad test early in life can ruin a student’s chances for college. At the doctoral level, this has resulted in low-risk, derivative research. “When students get into the university, we have to change their way of thinking,” laments Bai Fengshan, deputy chairman of the math department at Qinghua, China’s MIT. “The important thing is to be creative, but because they’ve had to focus on the exams, they spend most of their time following rules.” At the same time, Chinese scholars have generally been reluctant to reach out to their foreign colleagues for advice—or criticism. In France, Germany, the United States, and most other math superpowers, international review of research is standard. In such a specialized field it’s the only way to have thorough critiques and worthwhile collaborations. But Chinese scholars have resisted this practice, and not just because of the country’s long-held skepticism toward foreign interference. Those in charge of determining how to rate research—usually older, entrenched professors—are often those who would suffer most from opening up the system. So quite often, Chinese universities simply tally the number of papers someone has published when it comes time to decide promotions. The result is that many Chinese scholars publish more mediocre papers and less groundbreaking work. That mediocrity could impair China’s technological ambitions. The country hopes to be more than a factory to the world; Beijing wants its own high-tech centers to rival Silicon Valley. But many of the greatest innovations come from people in laboratories doing pure research. Sure, a country full of high-school-math whizzes can offer the world millions of qualified computer programmers. But if China truly wants to become a high-tech player, then its students must be able to create cutting-edge technology—not simply serve it. China’s mathematicians may still be able to solve for these variables. People like Yang are fighting to change the rules for promoting professors. At his academy, for example, the three-person evaluation panels now must include two overseas experts. Perhaps even more promising, Chinese universities are going beyond the elite city colleges and into the impoverished countryside in search of future Chinese Newtons and Nashes. Harvard’s Yau helped establish a mathematics institute in Hong Kong where, he says, some of the students producing the most creative work are the ones from the countryside or the poorest mainland schools. Back in his dorm room, Li, the young doctoral student, imagines what it would be like to win the Fields Medal. “Every young mathematician has that dream. I have the dream,” says Li. Maybe he also has what it takes. He is, after all, from the countryside. © 2002 Newsweek, Inc. |
| SIWALIK | Posted
on 08-Nov-02 09:40 AM
Yes Ahsu enlighten us: "Why doesn't...Nepal produce scholars who stretch the boundaries of their fields by asking uncomfortable questios, by challenging the status quo, by upsetting the establushed elders and by taking even career-destroying risks to pursue ideas and only ideas?" Afterall, you fit the criteria pretty well. so what's keeping you? Please take a stab at it. I am interested to learn! |
| paramendra | Posted
on 08-Nov-02 11:43 AM
Wow. This thread has fast emerged into what could possibly be my favorite one, yet. Most end up being cyberplay, which is just fine, fun is a must, and personalities abound at this location. But there has been a dearth of discussions rather serious in nature. And even some that were attempts in that direction "degenerate" into more social calls and even personal attacks. So far this thread has stuck to its theme. I am so glad. But before I throw in my comments, I would like to post the two articles whose links have been provided by Paschim and protean. I am against the practice, but will make an exception for this thread. I hope I don't rub anyone the wrong way. http://www.feer.com/articles/2002/0211_14/p030china.html CHINA BRIEFING COMMUNIST PARTY BUSINESS: AN AWKWARD EMBRACE By Susan V. Lawrence Issue cover-dated November 14, 2002 Most attention will be on the new leadership line-up at the 16th Party Congress, which opens on November 8. But in a move that may have at least as great an impact on the party, the meeting is also due to endorse party chief Jiang Zemin's vision for remoulding the party's identity, which he insists is needed to ensure the party's survival. A key element is the idea that the party needs to cast its net wider in its recruitment efforts, so that it has representatives of all the most dynamic parts of society among its members. In addition to recruiting from its traditional constituencies of workers, farmers, "intellectuals," soldiers and cadres, Jiang said in a nationally televised speech last year, the party should enroll "outstanding elements from other sectors of society." He cited private entrepreneurs as a group to target. A year and a half on from Jiang's speech, however, the nation has heard almost nothing more about Jiang's plans to bring capitalists into the party. Mindful of how controversial the idea is among many stalwart long-time party members, the Propaganda Department imposed a ban on coverage of the subject almost as soon as the words were out of Jiang's mouth. The party's Organization Department, run by Jiang's closest associate, ordered provincial affiliates in parts of the country to launch quiet experiments in recruitment. The result of these efforts is unknown. And China still has no official capitalist-turned-communist icon. As the congress opens, the case of Wang Xuebing should give delegates pause as they mull whether to back Jiang's initiative. Wang, 50, was for years a high-flying banker, president first of Bank of China, then of another of the big four Chinese banks, China Construction Bank (see story on page 32). He was sacked in January and put under investigation. And on November 5, at its final meeting before the congress, the Central Committee removed him from his position as an alternate member of the committee and expelled him from the party. The Xinhua news agency said Wang violated financial supervision rules while at Bank of China, accepted millions of renminbi in bribes and "had a debauched lifestyle and corrupted morality." He was handed to prosecutors. Wang worked for state-owned financial institutions. He wasn't a private boss. But he operated with savvy and panache in the capitalist world, and the party under Jiang valued that ability. He was an early manifestation of Jiang's interest in tapping dynamic business leaders to reinvigorate party institutions. In 1997, the party made seven state-sector business leaders alternate members of the Central Committee--Wang, another banker, the heads of air-conditioner manufacturer Chunlan and television-maker Changhong, and the bosses of huge state conglomerates Baosteel, Anshan Iron and Steel, and Sinopec. Wang's fall, and that of Gao Yan, the chief of State Power Corp. who had a full seat on the Central Committee and went missing in October amid corruption allegations, will reinforce for doubters the danger for the party in courting the business world. Most party corruption scandals of course involve officials, not businesspeople. But when two of only a handful of the corporate leaders selected by the party to sit on its top bodies run into trouble, it is perhaps inevitable that the group receives special scrutiny. With Mao-era suspicion of private business still lingering, the party's reaching out to private bosses will be that much more controversial. Jiang will likely get what he wants at the congress. A few private bosses are among the 2,120 communists who are delegates to the meeting this year. A few of them--probably from firms classified as private but with strong ties to the state--might join the Central Committee. But look beyond the congress to see whether local party organizations start aggressively enrolling private bosses as members, or whether continuing opposition within the party forces Jiang's supporters to keep moving the initiative forward only gingerly. In his speech last year, remember, Jiang noted that in addition to being "outstanding elements," hopefuls for party membership must also have "proved to meet the requirements for party membership through a long period of tests." |
| paramendra | Posted
on 08-Nov-02 11:44 AM
Will the Party Lose China? By DAVID SHAMBAUGH HONG KONG — A new generation of leaders takes command of the 65 million member Chinese Communist Party and 1.3 billion citizens of China at the party's 16th Congress beginning tomorrow. There will be many unanswered questions about the leaders, their world view and domestic policy priorities. But the most important issue facing this new, "fourth generation" of leaders is institutional: they will inherit a party apparatus that is an increasingly hollow shell, feigning rule rather than exerting authority. The party today faces dual crises of identity and legitimacy. Widespread alienation and cynicism exist at all levels of society about politics and the party. At the same time, weakened tools of coercion and the growth of a market economy have led to high levels of social instability, growing dissent and challenges to party doctrine. Rampant corruption has laid bare the insufficiency of the legal system, the lack of political checks on power and inadequate commercial transparency. Many of the party's current problems are the result of broad processes associated with socioeconomic modernization and greater social stratification. Significant parts of society have been left behind as others have benefited from market reforms. Rural incomes have been stagnant for a decade, forcing about 100 million people to roam the country looking for work in cities. Meanwhile, restructuring of the state industrial sector has created a level of unemployment unprecedented since the Communist Party came to power in 1949. Even the parts of society that have experienced some economic gains pose new challenges for the party. Those gains have led to rising public demands for improvements in health care, public safety, jobs, education, environmental quality and care for the elderly. The party at all levels is attempting to meet demands brought on by the breakdown of many social services, but it cannot fully meet these demands, in part because it has suppressed avenues of input from the people themselves. Evidently, one of the principal lessons that the party leadership seems to have drawn from the overthrow of Communist parties in Eastern Europe a decade ago is that allowing independent labor unions, autonomous churches and other civic organizations to exist is to create a foundation for organized political opposition. So the party has opted for a mixture of suppression and co-optation of such social groups — a strategy that might work in the short term but is not ultimately sustainable. The deeper problem for the party is that it offers no convincing philosophy or vision for the nation's future. A communist future is no longer believable as Marxist-Leninist ideology has been diluted beyond recognition in contemporary China. Yet no comprehensive alternative vision has been offered by the party and its retiring leader, Jiang Zemin. Mr. Jiang's "Three Represents" theory — an effort to open the party to entrepreneurs, technocrats and the intelligentsia — certainly does not stir the nation. Aside from propagandistic clichés, what the party seems to advocate today is really no different from the core themes that all Chinese rulers since the 1870's have advocated: attaining wealth and power; enhancing nationalism and international dignity; preserving unity and preventing chaos. These ideas still resonate deeply in China and continue to lend the current party leaders some degree of legitimacy and continuity with the past. But the party's legitimacy is growing weaker as it proves itself incapable of dealing with increasing social disparities. The central challenge for the party's new leadership is how to remain relevant to a rapidly changing society. The loss of party control in China is an incremental process, a gradual decay instead of the sudden implosion that occurred in the former Soviet Union and its satellites in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. If the Communist Party's rule is frontally challenged, as in 1989 during the Tiananmen crisis, it can probably maintain power through armed force — although even that is no longer entirely certain. But if the party is to remain in power without having to resort to force, it must develop means of governance that share power with the people and civic organizations. A remarkable public opinion poll released this week by a research center affiliated with the prestigious Chinese Academy of Social Sciences found that 91 percent of respondents said the justice system was unfair while 80 percent said they wanted to elect their officials directly. A majority said the party Congress should focus on improving social welfare and job creation and should adopt new political reforms. If the party fails to respond effectively to these growing demands, its ability to maintain its power will only continue to decline. David Shambaugh, a professor at the Elliott School of International Affairs at George Washington University, is currently a fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. http://www.nytimes.com/2002/11/07/opinion/07SHAM.html |
| Bitchpatroll | Posted
on 08-Nov-02 11:53 AM
Posted on 11-07-02 12:52 PM Reply isten you egotistic Moron, You lack orignality and you admit that you steal others ideas so you are an intellectual thief. Do you ever even ask yourself why this is happening to you and only you and not others. Go reflect upon your own deeds. Just like you know how to say public foeum , we know that term too. Just like you we have rights too moron. "...carries a Nepali passport..." Yes. And so? That is a technical detail. Maybe I am not married to the unjust social status quo in Nepal like you are. I have a few questions to ask. AND YES WE DO NOT LIKE PEOPLE WHO TALK SHIT ABOUT THEIR OWN COUNTRY. Few questions to ask ? what tha fk do you mean ? IF THE LAND OF NEPAL HAD NOT PROVIDED YOU WITH FOOD AND WATER YOU WOULD NOT BE HERE TODAY. I WOULD RATHER YOU SAY THANK YOU... TRAITOR Not even San himself can bar me from coming here. And he happens to own this site. Repeat: this is a free, public forum. Read the TOS. Oh really you think so ? Man you have no shame what so ever. Do you understand english or should we spell it out in your native language...STOOOOOPID says stooooopid does i guess I have not been advocating racism or casteism. Quite the opposite. Yeah and thats why you call us BAHADURS huh ? burgeoning Idiot thinks he is smart. |
| CHaakman | Posted
on 08-Nov-02 12:00 PM
Ayy yohi madhisey hoina hami lai bahadur bhadai hinney...saaala Ani uslai madhisey banyo bhaney," owww hernus na malai yini haruley madhisey banyo banera Runcha..Badaa aucha intellectual banera saala madhisey |
| paramendra | Posted
on 08-Nov-02 12:09 PM
According to a count by Logical Sense, I have tried (and failed) about seven times to ignite a full-beat discussion on the national economy at this site. I might, by now, have acquired an image of someone whose favorite topic is the plight of the Madhesis. My background disallows me to neglect the topic, but I would much rather discuss the national economy, for two reasons: (1) that is the number one issue for Nepal, and (2) it is potentially more intellectually stimulating than any other conceivable topic: people from all backgrounds can contribute to it, and it can be as theoretical, and/or concrete as any participant might want it to be. China might be the front, and it might make objectivity a little easier. But, I feel, this is very much about Nepal itself. A few observations I would like to make:
|
| SIWALIK | Posted
on 08-Nov-02 12:09 PM
We had better not lower ourselves into using derogatory epithets. They abound on both sides of India Nepal border. Whether they are called "bahadur" or "dikchi driver", the fact remains that many Nepalese go to India for economic opportunities. They will have to settle for jobs where they have comparative advantage or skills. Similarly, Nepalese use salacious ones to somehow belive that they are better than Indians. Those are not the assertions that are going to help us out. If we are to make those terms and practices irrelevant, we had better provide opportunity and skills right at home so that unemployed Nepalese do not have to do menial jobs that bring "dishonor" to the populatin at large. |
| paramendra | Posted
on 08-Nov-02 12:12 PM
Oops. They are here! |
| paramendra | Posted
on 08-Nov-02 12:15 PM
Those who would like to discuss the Terai issue, the caste issue and personal insults of any nature are invited back to the relevant threads:
:-) |
| paramendra | Posted
on 08-Nov-02 12:26 PM
This is curious. Gives one much hope. "A remarkable public opinion poll released this week by a research center affiliated with the prestigious Chinese Academy of Social Sciences found that 91 percent of respondents said the justice system was unfair while 80 percent said they wanted to elect their officials directly. A majority said the party Congress should focus on improving social welfare and job creation and should adopt new political reforms." |
| Bathroomcoffee | Posted
on 08-Nov-02 12:38 PM
Ayy marsha why do you come here ? If you think you are not Neapli ...Go back your Mother land Bihar...Its because of people like you all Taraibasi's get a bad wrap |
| protean | Posted
on 08-Nov-02 04:42 PM
Ashu, Very interesting questions that you posed. Why is that the merti based system in most Asian countries centers around rote learning rather than creative thinking? Could it because that this is the least painful path and a guaranteed success to a certain degree? In addition , there doesn't seem to be an atmosphere, that calls for an urgent need of encouraging innovative lines of thinking. When operating with the norms of following what majority follows to be the norm, then you don't have chances of fostering creativity and novelty in ideas. A important factor in enhancing such pursuits befalls on the teaching institutions, and their teachers. Unfortunately, we haven't taken great strides in that direction in Nepal uptil now. The futue geneartion does need to learn from this, and improve on the education system. Another factor would probalby, be the lack of proper incentives to be creative in being able to come up with inventions. Lack of labs, lack of technical institutions, lack of effective and world class science & engineering academies and institutions -- related to lack of incentives in the first place--further aggravates this matter as experimentation and the possibilites to creating is further diminished. To sum it all up, then there is the transfer of talented workers for finding better opportunities to developed countries. These people might not be the Einsteins, but they surely could attempt ways to create a more conducive atmosphere for such work. There has been much debate as to the pros and cons of brain drain. The Economist magazine did an article on this subject that I'll provide in the link below. http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=1352810 In India, it seems that there is already an influx of capital from the bright and wealthy to fund research and develop newer products --in pharamceuticals, software, and service Industry. I believe, influx of capital and technology along with a newer culture towards innovation in Nepal ,could invariably produce similar effect--a domino chain type. As Gurucharan Das (a Harvard Graduate & MBA, and VP of Procter & Gamble) his , "India Unbound" mentioned, a small boy has started to dream of starting a software company. If India has started to develop a culture like that , we should be to. |
| protean | Posted
on 08-Nov-02 05:51 PM
More on how China is opening its door to Capitalists. http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/international/international-china-congress.html?pagewanted=all&position=top _____________________________________ Looking at competition from China, for one of the behmoths of the Internet age, Cisco Systems, there is competition coming in from a small Chinese company. There will be additional competition in the future for other Industries, leading to more capitalists (with their capital) moving in. This should make China a very dynamic place in the next couple of years. They will have to find a balance to welcoming capital, and modifying their political structure. |
| ashu | Posted
on 08-Nov-02 08:19 PM
Siwalik wrote: "Afterall, you fit the criteria pretty well. so what's keeping you? Please take a stab at it. I am interested to learn!" ********* Siwalik, that's OK. Looking at the career tranjectories of my various professors, I have decided that to be a first-rate, discipline-exapanding scholar, one has to make enormous sacrifices, and I, for one, am not YET ready to make those kind of sacrifices. Potential, ability, energy and even interest do NOT mean much if one is not ready to make sacrifices after sacrifices to reach nowhere but the top of one's profession, whether in academia or in something else. That's the short answer to your question. A long and more personal answer would be: Right now, I am simply busy learning about Nepal by doing everything I can possibily fit in my crazy schedule, making many personal and professional connections in Nepal, getting to know and work with too many people, running an office, and also taking care of my family, running a family business, educating a younger brother (being the eldest child) and all that. But whatever I am doing here, I make sure that I am constantly asking questions and learning and learning and learning from people and events here. I expect these sort of "garnai-parnay" commitments (which I take very, very seriously) to go on for at least another two years, before one of my younger brothers comes back from the US and takes over some the stuff I have been doing here. . . you know how it is in Nepal. After that, who knows? I am still young, and I like studying and learning (either in the context of academia or business or somethning else) And you never know. Meantime, I remain grateful to sajha.com for allowing a decent platform to keep the so-called analytical skills chugging along just fine, though I am fully aware my postings on sajha won't appear on my CV :-) Hope this answers your question. Have a great week-end. oohi ashu ktm,nepal |
| ashu | Posted
on 08-Nov-02 08:35 PM
Protean, Gurucharan Das's that "India unbound" book (by the way, the title of that book is a variation on the title one of Das's professors David Landes' book on capitalism "The Unbound Prometheus" -- a book I strongly recommend to you if you like economic history of Western Europe.) makes an interesting reading, though I am not sure I agree with Das's analysis. I found his tone too giddy and too enthusiastic. Then again, we in Nepal have to read Das's book if we we are too understand how an economically liberal India is shaping up, on the south of our border. oohi ashu ktm,nepal |
| SIWALIK | Posted
on 08-Nov-02 09:10 PM
I just hope, very fondly, that when the time comes you will be there at the front to change the intellectually stifling quality of Nepali bureacratic culture. Unless you resolve to change the system that you find so constricting, chnage is not going to be handled in a platter. But once you know the syste--you are at an advantage here since you are learning it first hand--you can be the agent that changes the structure rather than be shaped by the structure. That is the positive spin I want to leave you contemplating. |
| paramendra | Posted
on 08-Nov-02 10:14 PM
From the Economist article: "Top of the list should be making a country a good place to work. “I am always struck by how African leaders say they need the return of talent,” says Mr Martin, “and yet my own students try every trick to stay, saying that they are in the wrong tribe, or do not have the right connections to get ahead.” A culture where advancement depends on political affiliation rather than merit will lose bright people to societies where talent is what counts. This is particularly true in the public sector, including the universities, where professionals will stay only if professionalism counts............. One way to encourage a sense of participating in two cultures, rather than one, is to extend the availability of dual citizenship, something that developing countries have sometimes been reluctant to do. Another is to use the Internet to draw on expat skills and contacts. .........Mobility, which fits in comfortably with today's employment patterns, is more likely to benefit both sending and receiving countries than the old idea of migrating for good. .............. Once a developing country starts to grow rich, a return flow will build up of its own accord. Taiwan, South Korea and China all now receive considerable return migration. Ireland, once a land of emigrants, has become a country of net immigration. Given opportunities and political stability, good leadership and the rule of law, many of those who would otherwise leave a developing country will stay—and some of those who left will return. " http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=1352810 |
| paramendra | Posted
on 08-Nov-02 10:23 PM
From The New York Times: "Standing in front of a giant hammer and sickle in the Great Hall of the People, Jiang ruled out Western-style multi-party democracy and said the party would not abandon the peasants and workers who brought it to power in 1949............ Outside, red flags and slogan-bearing banners were strewn around streets lined with glitzy office blocks and shopping malls highlighting the tensions between China's rigid political system and its breakneck capitalist-style economic development.............. Jiang also echoed Mao's refrain ``Let 100 flowers bloom and 100 schools of thought contend'' in a call for political openness.......... He also pledged to fight terrorism, corruption and ``evil cults,'' a term applied to the banned Falun Gong spiritual group." I don't see much good news. |
| Biswo | Posted
on 08-Nov-02 11:48 PM
Re current news about China: Apparently, Hu Jintao is going to be the general secretary after this congress. In China, general secretary of CCP is the most powerful person, normally, but there are exceptions to that. Deng Xiaoping was the most powerful person even after his retirement from his key post (military head). Jiang will be the most powerful person even after retiring from CCP general secretaryship. Next year, he is scheduled to resign from presidency too (though needless to say, he would love to retire after China sends its manned mission to moon!). It is yet to be clear if he is gonna give up the chairmanship of military commission too. Hu Jintao is not unfamiliar to Nepal. He was once the party chief of China's Tibet Autonomous Region. He is young (50+) only. Rarely exudes any charisma, but despite his lackluster public performance, Jiang ruled the country for more than a decade with iron grip, so that factor shouldn't matter much.I don't think he has travelled to Nepal, though. The man most familiar with us in CCP politburo is the diminutive, crumpled faced, froggy eyed, not-so-popular-in-China Li Ruihuan. And, as long as Chinese people follow Deng's 'divine commandment' ,i.e. zhi fu guanrong(being rich is being glorious), Hu may not encounter any problem during his tenure as the president of PRC and general secretary of CCP. In Nepal, China's best friend will be the same people: king, Kirti Nidhi Bista, Ramesh Nath Pande, some UML leaders, some NC leaders. ---- As for Ashu's question, why China doesn't produce innovative scholars, I am not sure if I agree totally. The most recent talents in mathematics hail from Soviet Union and east European blocks. I don't count the nationality of Field Award Winners. But I care about mathematicians in the field of Real Analysis, Topology, and Mathematical Statistics. Egorov, Kolmogorov, Lusin, Fubini, Rao, Basu (India) came from the countries where people who are considered the brightest are judged to be so by their performance within some defined set of parameters. But again, the point that the system doesn't encourage truly innovative people in China, India, Nepal, in other countries is true, and that may be the reason why we don't have a lot of extraordinary scholars. Other reasons are :lack of resources, lack of expert manpower (let's face it: almost all cutting edge research happens in USA, so it becomes even more challenging for a fella sitting in TU math department to do a lot of research, publish papers, and still resist temptation to go aboard, and slump in the old scratched chair of clammy dept in the winter of Kathmandu and try to teach a Nepali student for his MS there unless he is damn big hearted altruist) , and even complacency. (I have seen a lot of Nepalese scholars who thought they were the only expert in their field in the whole country!! May be true, but the conceiting way in which they expressed their view sucked big time. Those people who think they know everything are not very likely to read more either.) |
| Biswo | Posted
on 09-Nov-02 12:00 AM
Let me add some more about the talents. We all know that most of Russian mathematicians, statisticians'work were not translated into English until late. Kolmogorov's works were translated to English after fourty/fifty years, and a lot of people agree that a lot of past researches done in the countries like Russia and China probably were never translated, and thus may be sitting in oblivion now. Ditto about China. I knew of one Pakistani fella in Shanghai Medical University, who effectively translated his professor's articles, put his and his professor's name and published those articles in international journals, and got a job in some international agency (I think WHO) after graduation. It demonstrates one problem: that Chinese professors and their lack of English constrains them into writing exclusively in Chinese and publishing in local languages. We really don't know very much what Chinese did before 1990. May be they didn't manage to do a lot because of cultural revolution, but I think they were good in physics and mathematics. They have put together a functioning space program, which is now commercially viable, and now they even talk of making a Cape Caneveral type public spectacle place of space shuttle launches in Hainan province. I hope that in future we will probably know more about the contribution of Chinese scientists. |
| ashu | Posted
on 09-Nov-02 12:36 AM
Biswo, Hungary and Bulgaria too seem to provide a disproportinate number of world-class talents in mathematics and theoretical physics. I don't know why or how, and would be interested to learn more about the state of math education in those countries. Maybe the Hungarians ARE -- as some have said elsewhere -- the smartest people on the planet :-) Then again, to paraphrase something that Bill Gates has said someplace, "the amount of raw talent is distributed evenly among all countries of the world . . . it's the countries that nurture their talents that will come out the winners . . ." or something like that. And that leads to this existential angst: If that is so, what then we in Nepal have done to nurture our talented young citizens? Maybe there should be regular "math boot-camps" and "science boot-camps" every summer for mathematically or scientifically gifted or similarly gifted in other disciplines (music, art etc) Nepali students . . . the sort of camps where they will learn challenging concepts, exercise creativity, take risks, ask questions, create intellectual problems and learn to solve them, meet and interact with other similaly smart young Nepalis and so on and on. I am dreaming . . . I know. Still, as writer Simon Singh writes in his immensely readable book "Fermat's Last Theorem" (again, that's another book I recommend to all), much of first-rate work in mathematics is often a collaborative enterprise, where the push and the pull of one's colleagues and critics add much to one's own knowledge. \ Siwalik, let's hope for the best. oohi ashu ktm,nepal |
| ashu | Posted
on 09-Nov-02 12:37 AM
Biswo, Hungary and Bulgaria too seem to provide a disproportinate number of world-class talents in mathematics and theoretical physics. I don't know why or how, and would be interested to learn more about the state of math education in those countries. Maybe the Hungarians ARE -- as some others have said elsewhere -- the smartest people on the planet :-) Then again, to paraphrase something that Bill Gates has said someplace, "the amount of raw talent is distributed evenly among all countries of the world . . . it's the countries that nurture their talents that will come out the winners . . ." or something like that. And that leads to this existential angst: If that is so, what then we in Nepal have done to nurture our talented young citizens? Maybe there should be regular "math boot-camps" and "science boot-camps" every summer for mathematically or scientifically gifted or similarly gifted in other disciplines (music, art etc) Nepali students . . . the sort of camps where they will learn challenging concepts, exercise creativity, take risks, ask questions, create intellectual problems and learn to solve them, meet and interact with other similaly smart young Nepalis and so on and on. I am dreaming . . . I know. Still, as writer Simon Singh writes in his immensely readable book "Fermat's Last Theorem" (again, that's another book I recommend to all), much of first-rate work in mathematics is often a collaborative enterprise, where the push and the pull of one's colleagues and critics add much to one's own knowledge. \ Siwalik, let's hope for the best. OK, back to my Saturday-morning Chinese-language lessons :-) oohi ashu ktm,nepal |
| Biswo | Posted
on 09-Nov-02 01:22 AM
Ashu, I took a class of real analysis from a Hungarian professor, and I asked him his reaction about why people thought Hungarians to be the most intelligent people in the planet."Is it due to the disproportionately high Nobel prize they received?" But the native Hungarian was a humble person, he refused to believe that an average Hungarian was smarter than an average Nepali. I also hope we are all equally smart. (At this point, I remember plastic maker scientist Shockley, a genious of extraordinary gift, who somehow fanatically claimed in the 60s that he had proved blacks were inferior to white genetically.) --- I am not an expert in this matter, but my opinion about cutting edge research in Nepal is this: 1. First, let student study what he wants. This damn fundamental thing is not available to kids in Nepal, who are psychologically brutalized to study obvious 'money churning' majors. 2. Math, math, math. Emphasize this thing in highschool. I know you guys don't like this idea, but this is something I am increasingly convinced of. Any top notch paper, whether it is in comp sci, or it is in economics, whether it is in physics, or in biology, now contains math. Math is easier language to express. It makes life a lot easy once you master it. Math wouldn't have been invented if it had been possible to write those things in ,say, English. It is a queen of science, an entire new language made for making sound theoretical arguments. 3. Discourage this 'ghokante bidhya' culture. Anyone who took I.Sc. class knows that doing previous questions(available in market) is all that takes to rank among top ten percentile.(May be twenty percent students pass,I think.) That is shame. Now, I know we don't have smart teachers in colleges. Ghaam jattikai chharlanga chha this thing. And we are the one who rabidly oppose bringing Indian professors to teach in our college. This is useless patriotism that we need to do away with. Think about this: I met a guy with physics MS degree from TU. He told me 28 out of 30 students in his class are now in USA.(Not likely to go back!) Where are Nepali professors with authentic MS degree to teach in colleges of Baglung or Bhojpur or even in Bharatpur(I used to take class in Bharatpur campus, and I remember the chemistry professor was an Indian national.)? In highschool, my science teacher was an Indian. He was smart, but after teaching in Dhading and Chitwan for more than 20 years, he is still 'asthaayi' teacher in Nepal Mavi, Tandi. The last time I saw him, his hair was becoming grey. I don't know what we do about his pension. It is shame that Indian government has to pressurize us for doing something about these teachers.(But they often do this as political tool, so these days we don't hear about those issues being raised by India.) We should preempt this humanatarian issue. Even now, in these unemployment ridden days, people are reluctant to go to Gorkha/Dhading/Humla as a highschool teacher. Those who went there years ago should be appropriately compensated irrespective of their place of origin. 4. Provide some research fund to graduate students in TU.(yes, I know we are poor.But we can always find a way to create such funding. Providing partial teaching opportunities in highschools near TU would be good idea.) 5. Look at the poors. Poors, minorities, marginalized people are the one who are likely to work harder to earn respect. They are our future, they will make us proud. |
| paramendra | Posted
on 09-Nov-02 02:40 AM
".... Those people who think they know everything are not very likely to read more either..." LOL "...something that Bill Gates has said someplace, "the amount of raw talent is distributed evenly among all countries of the world . . . it's the countries that nurture their talents that will come out the winners . . ." or something like that. ..." Another Bill (Clinton) has said: "Talent is evenly distributed. What is not evenly distributed is opportunity." "...I remember plastic maker scientist Shockley, a genious of extraordinary gift, who somehow fanatically claimed in the 60s that he had proved blacks were inferior to white genetically...." The book on the supposed bell curve was more recent and authored by some bozo Ph.D. types from some top East Coast universities. 90s? "Math wouldn't have been invented if it had been possible to write those things in ,say, English. It is a queen of science, an entire new language made for making sound theoretical arguments." Math - imagination - is literally the sixth sense, the most useful of them all. "And we are the one who rabidly oppose bringing Indian professors to teach in our college. This is useless patriotism that we need to do away with." Mahi magne dhungro lukaune. The same logic applies to trade, to inviting foreign (yes, India is a foreign country) investments. And, why not, a possible South Asian economic union. Indophobia is a disease: it has to go. Wow ----- this thread is really coming along. |
| SIWALIK | Posted
on 09-Nov-02 12:37 PM
Inviting Indian professors is a good idea, but can we provide equivalent renumeration? Lat time, I read something on that issue, "pay" was the biggest problem. Definitely, if we can lose talents to other countries, it might be better for us to win some than lose all the time... Yes, indophobia has a detrimental effect. Only partnership will help us move forward. There has to be a concerted effort to attract our own talent back home, as well. |
| Biswo | Posted
on 09-Nov-02 01:05 PM
Siwalik, This thing about pay is very interesting. Because we are not 'inviting', we are asking those who wants to come here and teach to come and teach. The truth is that unemployment in India, esp for Physics/Chemistry/Math graduates, is immense. People also think that without any connection they are not likely to get any job. Despite low sallary, If Nepal offers opportunity, people mostly from UP/Bihar belt are likely to come, they have come. This issue needs to be debated, but I don't see any point in keeping our highschools in hinterlands 'teacherless'. Education shouldn't be the area where we experiment our crass patriotism. Paramendra: >"And we are the one who rabidly oppose bringing Indian professors to teach in our >college. This is useless patriotism that we need to do away with." >Mahi magne dhungro lukaune. The same logic applies to trade, to inviting foreign (yes, >India is a foreign country) investments. And, why not, a possible South Asian economic >union. I am not sure if there is any restriction in investment by Indians except in some fields (like the journalism).I believe that 'total' free trade is an issue that needs to be debated further. Ironically, it is India that needs to open up for Nepali product. There is a huge trade imbalance in favour of India, and yet India has done nothing to help Nepali export. (Yes, we make shoddy products, but so does India!)The sad story of KODAK is a chilly reminder of how we should approach Indian policymakers in the future.Located on Terai belt of Nepal, KODAK and other such companies could have provided opportunities to mostly Teraibasi people of Nepal. Ironically, a sheer jealousy won over the idea of free trade, and Indians became very intransigent on that issue. |
| SIWALIK | Posted
on 09-Nov-02 01:20 PM
Then by all means we should encourage those professors and teachers. Educated citizens will be the biggest assets to any country seeking to better itself. KODAK is a reminder as also the dry port facility in Birgunj that Nepal needs to take India in confidence and close partnership. |
| paramendra | Posted
on 10-Nov-02 12:27 AM
".....a concerted effort to attract our own talent back home..." Cut the red tape. Establish something more akin to meritocracy. "...Despite low sallary, If Nepal offers opportunity, people mostly from UP/Bihar belt are likely to come, they have come...." I admire Biswo's stand. He is the true patriot. Who is more patriotic, those fanatics who would keep the Indian teachers at bay and deprive an entire generation of Nepalis a possible bright future, or Biswo who would help ensure a bright future for those Nepalis by inviting those Indian teachers? "....I believe that 'total' free trade is an issue that needs to be debated further...." Let's do that. Many fine minds who have already showed up at this thread might have ways to enlighten us. I am particularly interested in this issue. "...Ironically, it is India that needs to open up for Nepali product. There is a huge trade imbalance in favour of India, and yet India has done nothing to help Nepali export...." The weak Nepali leadership has failed to fight for the right bargain. I am with you. "....also the dry port facility in Birgunj that Nepal needs to take India in confidence and close partnership..." True. So true. |
| paramendra | Posted
on 10-Nov-02 12:31 AM
India is a major topic, no dobut:
|
| paramendra | Posted
on 10-Nov-02 12:45 AM
A Different Kind Of United Nations Paramendra Bhagat November 9, 2002 The United States is a tireless preacher of the concept of rule of law. If only every country would respect human rights, adopt democracy, free markets, property rights and rule of law, human civilization would attain new heights, or so the mantra goes. Yet if the U.S. mode of behavior in international affairs were to be introduced in a neighborhood in small town or big city America, we would have a rule of guns, and might would be right. When the mood becomes one of ruling the world instead of trying to lead it, this country falls prey to its darkest instincts from the European segment of its heritage, one that reeks of colonial excesses. And when the U.S. presents itself as a European country rather than a human concept to which the entire humanity can lay claim, it submits itself to the basest segments of its political spectrum. The United Nations is our best hope - not the way it is, but in what it can become - for the introduction of rule of law also in international affairs. The greatest impediment might be that not every country is a democracy. Governmental and non-governmental help, which in rare circumstances might translate into military actions, ought be provided by the democracies to the domestic movements in countries that have non-democratic regimes. But we don't have to wait until then to transfrom the U.N. The very attempt to transform it will give wind to those domestic movements that ought to play central roles in their respective countries in the first place. The General Assembly has to be reorganized along a House/Senate arrangement where, in the upper house, each member country has a vote each, whereas, in the lower house, a country's weight is directly proportional to its population. Democracy: one person, one vote, all the way to the top, from the hamlet or village or town, to the county, to the state, to the country, all the way to the U.N. General Assembly. The Secretary General would be elected directly by the House and the Senate. Any member country may nominate a person, but such a nomination would have to be seconded by enough member countries so as to garner at least 20% of the votes in both the chambers. An election would be held should there be more than one nominee. Only the top two would remain for the third round, and a run-off would be held until the top contender gets at least 50% of the votes in both the houses. The World Bank, the IMF, and the WTO would be brought under the U.N. Their heads would be part of the Secretary General's cabinet, to be nominated by him or her, their terms ending with that of the Secretary General. Economic globalization has been on its way for a while now: let poltical globalization catch up. © 2002 Paramendra Bhagat |
| isolated freak | Posted
on 10-Nov-02 12:00 PM
siwalik wrote: KODAK is a reminder as also the dry port facility in Birgunj that Nepal needs to take India in confidence and close partnership. *** Kodak and dry port are two different issues. Kodak was bound to be a failure from the very beginning, as for dry port there are other factors involved. You have to trace things from the early 70s to udnerstand this. STUDY more, you'll know :-) Biswo wrote: And, as long as Chinese people follow Deng's 'divine commandment' ,i.e. zhi fu guanrong(being rich is being glorious), Hu may not encounter any problem during his tenure as the president of PRC and general secretary of CCP. *** I am not that of a china expert, but as far as my little undertsnading of china goes, I think Hu will have more problems than any chinese leader in the last 20 years. He has to please the radical old leaders and the new liberal leeaders at the same time. You can't make everyone happy all the time, can you? *** Ashu wrote : OK, back to my Saturday-morning Chinese-language lessons :-) I heard its the hardest language to learn. How is it? *** Parmendra wrote: And, why not, a possible South Asian economic union. Indophobia is a disease: it has to go. The time has not arrived yet for a possible South-Asian economic association. Indophobia is a disease but who is "infecting" us with this disease? ".......... He also pledged to fight terrorism, corruption and ``evil cults,'' a term applied to the banned Falun Gong spiritual group." I don't see much good news. " What? You don't think fighting terrorism , corruption and evil cults is good? What is GOOD news for you? Also you article on UN / US is " tato bhutlo nabhayeko" one. What are you arguing for? Co-ordination between UN and the US? A change in the UN system? I seriously didn't get anything out of it. Read more of UN's history. STUDY. Here are some of the recommended books: 1. The Umbrella of U.S. Power: The Universal Declaration of Human Rights and the Contradicitions of U.S. Policy 2. 10 Reasons to Abolish the IMF and World Bank |
| isolated freak | Posted
on 10-Nov-02 12:09 PM
Parmendra wrote : Economic globalization has been on its way for a while now: let poltical globalization catch up. Political globalization bhanya k? What does this phrase mean? Globalization in itself is political because economies have never been so tied up with politics. Global POLITICAL economy dude, got it? |
| kreep | Posted
on 10-Nov-02 12:15 PM
Biswo : "I am not sure if there is any restriction in investment by Indians except in some fields (like the journalism).I believe that 'total' free trade is an issue that needs to be debated further. " The Himalayan Times english daily's main investor is India Times. As far as I know, what comes out and what does not are decided by the indians. |
| KaLaNkIsThAn | Posted
on 10-Nov-02 07:27 PM
Afnai desh ko democracy ko atto patto chaina arka ko desh ko ke kura garai bho.. hoina ta??? khoi ta... hoina bhane nepali nabhana, bir ko chor naati ma nagana!! (sorry for interruption in an intellectual forum board. Bore bho ke... so bored) |
| SIWALIK | Posted
on 11-Nov-02 10:36 AM
Mr. Isolated Freak: To you KODAK and dry port may be different issues, but I feel they both fall under "free trade" promotion in South Asia. And the glaring fact is that nepal might scream all it want, but without India's approval, nothing substantial will happen where free trade is ocncerned. And trade is not just about exporting Nepalese goods to India. But then not eveyone is as brilliant and well-read like you, so just indulge us and grace us with your profound undestanding of the world. We are just novices trying to grapple with something complex and challenging. But we envison a better future through change and innovation, not through enforcing the status quo. Let me simply remind you that "everying is changing; nothing ever stays the same". That is the eternal rule of this world. Those who will not change with time will be swept away. |
| protean | Posted
on 11-Nov-02 09:05 PM
Thanks Ashu for pointing out the book. I had come across it a long time back, but will try to delve into it again. I think, although Das is a bit enthusiastic (and probably a bit unrealistic) about changes in India, the book does provide some insights into the current developing in India. It seems that Nepal could learn something from both India and China to leap forward. Here are my general thougths. Nepal's lack of technological and scientific progress is in part due to the absence of a technically and scientifically oriented culture. Why so? The culture hasn't been encouraged by our system. As a result, there is lack of proper shcools, scientific and mathematical institutes, and above all the lack of incentives to promoting such activities. Slowly, it has started ,but we've a long way to go. There are potentials in Nepal, but the opportunity, and the environment to tap them hasn't actually surfaced. Even the Eastern Bloc countries,for their part, were engaged in tremendous R & D effort during the cold war, that allowed developments in these arenas to take shape. A lot of the IT people in Nepal mention that the due to incentives that is not in par with that of developed countires', the talent moves away from Nepal to the developed countries. This issues of providing the incentives, and also of creating an environement of challenge, is, and probably, would be, very crucial factors in Nepal in order to move along this direction. |
| protean | Posted
on 11-Nov-02 09:12 PM
The obvious interpretation is that totalitarianism breeds political apathy. Why care about things you have no say over? That's certainly there, but it's only part of the reason. Chinese used to care a great deal when the big politics were out of their hands. I remember the intense, edgy atmosphere on the street when Mao died in 1976, and the long period of quiet but nervous anticipation before Deng's passing in 1997. None of this is evident in the current changing of the guard. Political discussion, when it occasionally occurs in private, often has the light-hearted, irreverent tone of a sitcom. I've heard more sardonic remarks about Mr. Jiang's showy style than I have serious comments on his policies (many didn't think he had any). As for Mr. Hu, the most interesting question about him appears to be whether he really is as uninteresting as he seems: under this utterly bland, meek image, is he shrewdly lying low to surprise us later? Lately the government media's clamorous praise for Mr. Jiang's achievements has generated many private jokes in China. (Don't eulogies usually come after a person's death?) But that's about as energetic as things have been. The general attitude toward China's leaders seems to echo Deng's famous motto about cats: Black cat, white cat, whichever catches the mouse is a good cat. So, Jiang Zemin, Hu Jintao, whoever brings in more goods will be alright. People are expecting managers and controllers, not visionaries and poets. And it looks like that's exactly what they are getting. Half the men on the Standing Committee of the Politburo trained as engineers. Gone is the age of one strongman's rule, but the vision of Deng Xiaoping, China's last strongman, continues to shape the country's direction. Thirteen years after Tiananmen and 10 years after Deng's "southern tour" set the stage for speeding up market reform, the Chinese economy has been booming while Chinese passion for revolution seems all but dissipated. Call it market socialism or authoritarian capitalism, but whatever the name the pace and scale of economic, social transformation has been mind-boggling. Yet the mode of party politics has remained frozen: secrecy, propaganda, crackdowns on dissent. What has changed is society, and people's attitude toward politics: they treat secrecy with indifference, propaganda with mockery, crackdowns with resignation. Swept up in the great tide of commercial activities and a lively pop culture, politics has become the dark zone you avoid so that you can lead your real life. Given pressing demands and more attractive options, wouldn't you just as soon forget about those gray suits haggling over their seats in the Politburo? And then, there is a general assumption that no politician can turn back the clock. Having entered the World Trade Organization and won the right to host the 2008 Olympics, the country has traveled so far on the course of modernization that whoever is on top will have to be committed to economic growth and further integration into the global community. Despite the occasional flare of anger toward America, most Chinese continue to admire the United States and expect the government to maintain good relations between the countries. Most of all, however, they want the government to tackle the increasingly worrisome domestic issues that have been brought on by change: corruption, rising crime, growing inequality, environmental degradation. Few, however, expect dramatic political reform. The verdict on Tiananmen will change, certainly, but it will take time. No one will, or can, make the country regress to Maoist politics, but multiparty elections aren't around the corner either. Mr. Hu may push for reform, but I haven't talked to anyone who expects him to turn into China's version of Mikhail Gorbachev. The country will move ahead, but probably incrementally and with many zigzags. This sense of realism explains, in part, the general absence of enthusiasm about the current party congress. "Hu should be better than Jiang," a friend in Beijing said grudgingly after I pressed him repeatedly for a political opinion. But that was about all he had to say. Then he started to talk about movies. Jianying Zha, author of ``China Pop: How Soap Operas, Tabloids and Best Sellers Are Transforming a Culture,'' is a fellow in Asian studies at Rice University. |
| protean | Posted
on 11-Nov-02 09:12 PM
What follows is an article in the NY Times, that metnions that the Chinese populace is quite apathetic to this current change of guards. Wouldn't it be great if politics were not to influence ourlives to such a great extent, in Nepal? ____________________________________________________ http://www.nytimes.com/2002/11/11/opinion/11ZHA.html Yawning Through the Changing of the Guard By JIANYING ZHA FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. In a few days, at the closing of the 16th Communist Party Congress, China's new leaders will be announced. But when I recently asked an old high school buddy in Beijing about the coming changes, she sounded incredulous. "The party congress? It doesn't concern us. We're too busy!" Busy? She's been looking for a job since she got laid off last year by the failing state plant where she had worked since 1980; her daughter will face the tough college entrance exam next year, so she's got to take her to tutoring classes; her husband also needs her help because he quit his job as a taxi driver to become a day trader. Not one of her friends, she assured me, is talking about the congress either. And it's not just the working class. I was in Beijing from May to August, the period when a succession battle was being fought, supposedly, at the party's beach summit at Beidaihe, and yet of all the Chinese I talked with — entrepreneurs, clerks, artists, retired party cadres, intellectuals — no one ever mentioned a word about it. That's right: not even the intellectuals. (The professors I know were all preoccupied with putting out academic papers and getting promoted and buying apartments.) The only exception was a friend employed by the official television network. Media control is typically tighter before a big party conference, which he spoke of in the resigned manner of someone complaining about a recurring toothache. But after all, this is an important conference. A transfer of power is taking place: if all goes well in the next few days, the men who have governed China since the 1989 Tiananmen events, headed by Jiang Zemin, will make way for a new group known as the Fourth Generation. Led by Hu Jintao, 59, whose status as Mr. Jiang's successor was approved by the late Deng Xiaoping, these new leaders, mostly technocrats in their late 50's and 60's, will exercise great power in China in the next five to 10 years. So why the public indifference? |
| isolated freak | Posted
on 11-Nov-02 09:41 PM
Siwalik wrote: To you KODAK and dry port may be different issues, but I feel they both fall under "free trade" promotion in South Asia. And the glaring fact is that nepal might scream all it want, but without India's approval, nothing substantial will happen where free trade is ocncerned. *** Siwalik, there's MATERIAL CONTENT REQUIREMENT on Nepali exports to India. Now, you are an intelligent person, ponder on it. Dry port is a failure and both HMG and GOI are to be blamed for this. You further wrote: But then not eveyone is as brilliant and well-read like you, so just indulge us and grace us with your profound undestanding of the world. We are just novices trying to grapple with something complex and challenging. But we envison a better future through change and innovation, not through enforcing the status quo. *** Thanks Siwalik. Yeah, looking at some of the arguments/posts in here, I think I am BETTER read that some of you here. Getting emotional, overly nationalist, overly democratic and getting critical all the time do not give mch weight to the arguments, do they? To quote Sardar Yadunath Khanal, "tapai harooko adhyayan nai pugeko chaina" ** Let me simply remind you that "everying is changing; nothing ever stays the same". That is the eternal rule of this world. Those who will not change with time will be swept away. *** Now this is another discussion. What youenvison to do is great, good luck:-). Change the world, change Nepal, but before that change yourself. |
| paramendra | Posted
on 11-Nov-02 10:36 PM
Thanks for the article protean. I was thinking, economic reforms in India might be a related topic: INDIA'S ECONOMIC REFORMS by Tanweer Akram "..India is one of the major developing countries. In 1994, its per capital income was only US $320 per year. In 1994 in Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) terms its per capita income was $1,280 per year. The average annual growth rate of national income during 1985-1994 was only 2.9 percent. In 1994, average life expectancy was 62 years and adult literacy only 48 percent. During 1984-94 the average annual rate of inflation was 9.7 percent. Its present population is approximately 950 million; population growth rate is 1.8 percent. In 1990, 64 percent of the labor force was employed in agriculture and 16 percent in industry. In 1980, only 50 percent of the population had access to health care, and 55 percent had access to safe water. In 1993, merely 16 percent of the people had access to sanitation. In 1994 infant mortality stood at 70 per 1,000 birth. During 1989-1995, 63 percent of the children under five were suffering from malnutrition. Contraceptive prevalence rate during 1989-1996 was 43 percent. In 1994, total fertility rate was 3.3 percent. During 1989-1995, maternal mortality rate was 437 per 100,000. These figures, based on World Bank's World Development Report (1996), demonstrate the enormity of underdevelopment in India. It also shows the inadequacy of past economic policies and the demand for a relevant and remedial strategy for development. The relatively low economic growth in comparison to the high performing countries in Asia and the low productivity of investment is the major challenge to India's development efforts. ........." http://www.columbia.edu/~ta63/reform.htm |
| paramendra | Posted
on 11-Nov-02 10:38 PM
Assessing India's economic reforms India needs to launch a second generation of reforms after undertaking an in-depth analysis of what has gone wrong until now during the course of the ongoing round of reforms. SUBRAMANIAN SWAMY Volume 19 - Issue 02, Jan. 19 - Feb. 01, 2002 India's National Magazine from the publishers of THE HINDU http://www.flonnet.com/fl1902/19020610.htm |
| Paschim | Posted
on 13-Nov-02 08:43 AM
Interesting remarks above; just felt like adding some more. Communist Parties: Biswo’s remarks about the CCP recruiting the brightest of China – hence their grip would last a long time are interesting. I am better informed of the Vietnamese case, where the situation is surprisingly different and less rosy. Unlike China’s 66 million (out of 1.3 billion) who are party members, in Vietnam, only around 2 million (out of 80) are members. Among all loyalists, only around 1 in 7 have university degrees. Every one in four is a pensioner, and the young couldn’t care less. VCP evolved more as a nationalist force, and they continue to exact rent from the economy – the army running many joint ventures, politburo calling other shots, and the private sector stifled by shocking levels of official corruption and communist red tape. Political reform means giving up power, which I don’t foresee happening esp. from this generation of Soviet-trained leadership. Their longevity is dependent on economic performance alone – satisfy the people’s material needs and they may keep quiet for another generation – Vietnam is an Asian “success”, but still at a stage far below potential – Doi Moi, their reforms post-86 have not been pushed with gusto. They still believe that leadership without control is no leadership; and this mantra will backfire if they can’t deliver. They say money is the new religion. Their only hope towards a chaos-free political evolution is through stronger growth – and that will depend more on not the collective IQs of the folks at the top (not high anyway), but how and what they will use that for. The society, too, is being opened up…with Confucianism, once denounced as “outdated”, now being recast as being congruent with the Vietnamese tradition! Unlike in Hunan of China, where disenchanted farmers erected a 20 feet temple of “God” Mao (to be closed later by the CCP for promoting “feudal superstition”), Hanoi hasn’t seen anything as bizarre (even for an anomaly) yet. But the cult of Ho Chi Minh is amazing, and the nation remains fiercely nationalistic; it’d be interesting to watch how this nation will channel these positive forces to make a big material leap (if it does -- which it can). Information is controlled firecely; but for an unglamorous coverage of an otherwise romanticized communist country, people may want to consult Robert Templer's "Shadows and Wind". Trade in the Region: the cliché here is, “it’s not whether you integrate yourself with the rest of the region and the globe, but how”. The process is pretty much irreversible. In South Asia, Nepal (and Bhutan) are the only countries outside the WTO – Nepal is negotiating its terms of Accession now – the second working party meeting 2 months ago wasn’t as productive as hoped – but Nepal will get in by next year, and with binding international commitments thereon, rules-based regional/global trade IS the future – we won’t be able to back-track. India is a major factor – but with sufficient homework I think we can seek to gain. There are conflicting views on whether regional blocs aid or block the global trade regime; but any discussion of a South Asian Economic Union can’t be viewed in isolation – it is intrinsically linked to the seemingly more remote process at the Geneva-based WTO. Looks odd; but if we deconstruct the fact that over 98% of South Asia is already a signatory (and a vocal member) to the global regime for rules based freer trade, it’s not that odd after all. Subramaniam Swamy: This man is such a disappointment. A spectacular fall from grace for a once respected public intellectual. In the 60s he was publishing joint papers with the legendary Paul Samuelson. At times, he held important public office in India. In 1990, he came to Nepal, delivered a speech at Ganeshman Singh’s Chaaksibaari compound, and urged King Birendra to loosen his grip – usher in democracy “as he had taught the king in Harvard” re. It’s been downhill since. In the 1990s, his shady roles in deal-making including courting that vile Jayalalitha, blackmailing shaky governments in Delhi, pulling rugs from under the table, cheaply “exposing” the credentials of Sonia Gandhi, etc., were just too shoddy an act for a man of his stature. As a public intellectual, he had the potential to match the controversial Harold Laski of post-war Britain under Labor, or even say the controversial Kissinger in recent years, but alas! This guy came to Boston in 2000, and begged local Indian graduate students to invite him to speak at their university associations. I don’t think anyone bothered! Sorry, Mr. Swamy, call me an intolerant snob, but I ain’t interested in reading what you have to say any more! |
| paramendra | Posted
on 13-Nov-02 11:42 AM
I read Paschim's piece on Vietnam with utmost interest though, for the life of me, I could not guess as to why Swamy came up as a topic. It is all good, though. His career is perhaps a statement on the ground realities of Indian politics, perhaps. Be it China, or India, or Vietnam, there are lessons for Nepal in each such case study. And the distance offers an objectivity that a discussion on Nepal might not. Arnico's newly launched thread - PEACE TALKS IN NEPAL - might be a sibling to this one. That thread is where the "plane" touches reality. |
| paramendra | Posted
on 13-Nov-02 12:00 PM
Oops -- I forgot to make the point I wanted to make the most: There is an implicit suggestion by Paschim that Nepal will be better off through a global free trade regime than through any local/regional attempt. Will you please elaborate on that? And, in that case, will you please talk of the past of such free trade talks and how the poor countries might not have been dealt fair hands? If you think that to have been the case, that is. I do.
To me the solution is to bring the WTO (as the World Bank and the IMF) under the UN, and to remould the UN itself: http://www.geocities.com/paramendra/2002/un.html |
| SIWALIK | Posted
on 13-Nov-02 01:04 PM
Well, isolated Freak ji: Our difference is in the approach. I am in favor or comprehensive trade agreement with India. You seem to favor piecemeal approach. Of course I know about the "material content requirement". The same goes for the dry port. Why is it only the Birgunj dry port that is having problem, why not the other two that are operational i.e. in Biratnagar and Bhairahawa? Whether it is the export from Nepal, or facilities for international trade, the issues involves "friendly" relation between the two neighbors. And there can be no 'friendly" relation when there is "hate" and "finger pointing". Let us indulge more in "soul searching". That to me is more positive. But of course things look different from Nepal. |
| Paschim | Posted
on 13-Nov-02 10:11 PM
PKB -- timi sanga kura garyo ki, PhD dissertation lekha bhanchau :) Prashna gahan chhan…uttar dina time laagchha…bistarai fukdai garamla aafna opinions haru…as we have been doing since the "catfish" thread…time permitting, this will continue…On Swamy, I saw his name prominently displayed above, hence some random thoughts -- bahakiyeko matrai. |
| Biswo | Posted
on 15-Nov-02 03:49 PM
Paschim, The profile of China's 'newest' leaders: looks like another pack of technocrats! Hu Jintao: Hydralic Engineer from China's prestigeous Qinghua University (MIT of China) Wu Bangguo: Electronic Engineer(Radio Electronics) from Qinghua University Wen Jiabao: Geologist Jia Qinglin: (Unknown) Zeng Qinghong:trained as Engineer Huang Ju: Electrical Engineer, Qinghua University Wu Guanzheng: Thermal Engineer, Qinghua University Li Changcun: Electrical Engineer Luo Gan: Mechanical Engineer, Beijing Iron and Steel Institute (And these are the 'communist party' leaders. We are yet to talk about the ministers in the council of ministry! Should we learn from them? I am not sure. But in our country, parties love those ideologues 'who can define socialism and BP Bichardhaara and other bullshits' over everybody else.) |
| paramendra | Posted
on 15-Nov-02 04:49 PM
I am glad for the twists and turns this thread has taken; I hope we will continue to look at the big picture - China, India, Vietnam - to draw a few conclusions for the small one: Nepal. And global trade will keep coming back as a topic, I would hope. On the other hand, I was wondering if the "hastis" at this thread will take a peek at the Maoist insurgency, especially in light of the history of the international communist movement, the communists today in places like China, Vietnam, North Korea, Cuba, even India. What is happening? Are the Nepali Maoists going to fight a war of attrition for the next few years until they are either defeated or exhausted? If so, will the king retain the executive powers for a few years or, worse, usurp it all and suspend the constitution for good? Are the Maoists sincere in their call for peace, an interim government and a republic? Is that republic to be a multi-party democracy, or will that be a milestone for them as they move towards their true goal: a communist dictatorship? As in, get the king out of the way first, then, as a second step, get rid of the political parties? That is how it happened in Russia, I believe. After the czar was no longer on the scene, there was a brief experiment with republican "democracy." What century are we living in? I thought communism had run its course. The Soviet Union collapsed, China has been adopting the market for even longer. Who are these people? What do they want? What are the chances of a military defeat of the Maoists? How might that come about? How strong or weak really is the army? Can they do it? Personally, I don't think there is any one right track, political or military. You have to use all options. You can't negotiate from a position of weakness, but you can't refuse to want to talk either. Are the Nepali Maoists like the LTTE? They might run out of steam in about five years, and then peter off, you think? What until then? No elections? No parliament? No development work? What do you think? What is the way out of the impasse? |
| protean | Posted
on 15-Nov-02 04:58 PM
Interesting compostion of the new guards. Quite a work! Wouldn't a more diverse group have been more pragmatic? Perhaps. Should we learn from this? May be to a certain degree. China is gearing to reap benefits for the immense potential in the technology and the knowledge capital market. That could be a reason as to this team of engineers is in to run the show. But, perhaps, they could have a medley of other experts in this team. For our future leaders Don't just waste time just to gather support by extoling the virtue of the party and furnishing big guffs on Desh Bikash. At least start delivering. The most ironic part is Baburam, a technocrat, went ahead to utilize his architect degree to build plans to destroy infrastructure and human lives. |
| protean | Posted
on 15-Nov-02 05:00 PM
architect= architecture |
| Logical Sense | Posted
on 15-Nov-02 05:19 PM
Top of the class are not Leaders or achievers (they could be Kukarmies though). It is middle of the pack who are backbone of the society. Hardly matters what subject you study though. Leaders are leaders whether they are technochrats or lawyers or social scientists. He(BRB) has too much (Ati) theoritical budhi (Ati Sarbatra Barjiyet). May be he is thinking of flattening of Nepalese infrastrcture and make (his) a dream country from ground up, may be in line with first city taught in Architecural class (Chandigarh, a Architecural marvel in India). Binasa Kale Biprita Budhi. |
| Biswo | Posted
on 15-Nov-02 06:04 PM
I don't know if I mentioned this before. Long ago, I was talking to a Chinese female lawyer, of 20+ age, about politics in her country. She was surprisingly frank, and somewhat disappointed with the state of her country. She told me this thing, "You know, may be because our leaders are engineers only, so we don't have a good leader who can solve problems politically. They think only mechanically."She thought MBA guys, lawyers etc could be better leaders. And that was when we had 40+ MPs with the degree in law in Nepal. Having engineers alone as helmsmen is not the panacea to all the problems of a country. That is my belief. In China, Deng used to pick up those local officers from countryside who used to perform well. He picked a virtually unknown guy named Zhao Ziyang from Anhui province after he helped raise agriculture growth rate there. He picked up Hu Yaobang from countryside. In 1989, when Hu Yaobang died, Chinese students went to commemorate him, but that commemoration turned into a violent protest ending in a gory massacre and sacking of Zhao Ziyang(now in house arrest) later in June 4th. Deng's another pick was Zhu Rongji who is the prime minister of China now. Zhao and Hu picked a person named Wen Jiabao. Oily and foxy, Wen survived purge even when his protege was sacked in disgrace. Wen is likely to be the next prime minister of China. I think the reason why engineers are rising in China's hierarchy is straightforward: they are the one who are behind the China's phenomenal growth of the past two decade, and China has some sort of meritocracy (as long as the guy is communist, and doesn't offend his senior leaders). As long as this growth rate, and this seeming meritocracy remains in China, Qinghua educated engineers are going to occupy politburo. |
| protean | Posted
on 15-Nov-02 08:06 PM
Interesting story about the woman lawyer from China. What about lawyers like her going in? So, it is still the old boys network ,hoina ta? When are the women going to enter this platform in China? Having bunch of Qinghua alumnis might actually be the solution. I agree there. They will do well economically, but don't know what reforms they'll bring socially. Case in point in Nepal: The lawyers were they good with words or were they good for nothing? They didn't deliver in the end ,did they? Bunch of not so astute and quite not so brillant lawyers , weren't they? Most of them had one thing in common: They were all graduates of India & were jailed or living outside the country one time or other. In essence, true leaders ,who are able to understand the sentiments of the population, and that can deliver are needed for Nepal. When will that happen? What will creeate such a situation to arise? I'm quite perplexed by both these questions. It's not that we're lacking in potential leaders,but their potential has never been tapped. |
| protean | Posted
on 15-Nov-02 08:28 PM
might= might not |
| Biswo | Posted
on 15-Nov-02 08:29 PM
There are a bunch of ladies in the council of ministers, I think. That fiery health or science minister comes to my mind who went to Taiwan couple of years ago representing China in some science seminar (China's minister going to Taiwan is a big deal!). In 1994, when Nanjing was hosting this 'National Tourism Day', I was pleasantly surprised to meet a lady who was 'vice president' of China's Parliament. Real old lady she was.I don't remember her name, but I guess she had some kind of revolutionary history. I was walking with her while a lot of journalists were taking the photographs. It is so unbelievable now, because I have only seen Chinese leaders sorrounded by an impregnable web of security forces.They are normally not that accessible. In China, about 30% of the members of parliament were female when I last noticed about this statistics (in about 1998). (Rightnow, I am too lazy to search the most recent data.) About half of my classmates were female, and more than half of the total gold medals China won in the last Olympic games were won by female athletes. Chinese women may not have an 'equal' status as compared to men, but they are not lagging far behind, esp in the coastal regions of China. -- Proteanji, Your observation about our lawyer MPs are interesting. Why most of (at least a lot of ) our lawyers are not that 'brilliant'? I again remembered another incident in which a Chinese lady told me about her boyfriend who was studying law: "It is difficult, ,and kind of funny, to say I am studying law in China. What the leaders do, what they say, is the law in our country." Until parliament speaker Qiao Shi tried to reform Chinese legal system, China's law was like that. Police would successfully prosecute 99% of the cases they handled. In Nepal too, Rana rulers had implemented this 'Hukumi' rule, what they commanded was our law. Panchayat was somewhat better, a lot better in comparison to Rana rule I must say, but it had one major shortcoming: there was still a person whose 'hukum' would be the law. No wonder there was a rare chance for creativity. |
| protean | Posted
on 15-Nov-02 09:20 PM
Biswoji, Thanks for sharing the statistics about the composition of females in Chinese politics. As far as the lawyers (and other systems) of Nepal are concerend, it is still the Rana and Panche year's imprinting in the minds, and the lack of cirital thinking similar to that of the Chinese,where the actions of lawyers were not that ciritical, and were still being mechanically controlled by the police. It seems interesting that the engineers are working at the politics mechanically, and the police are mechanistically solving law matters in China. So, no wonder it has taken a long time for reforms to be initiated and take shape. At least there is acitivity that is burgeoning there, which could bring out more progessive changes. And for us, just when the younger generation with a slightly different (and creative) perceptions were coming up, we've started to face the pain of the wounnds left over the generations by the oppressive and the feudal system that were in in reign. |
| paramendra | Posted
on 15-Nov-02 10:45 PM
Biswo, who are you? Where are you? Are you based in China? Have you spent a lot of time there? |
| paramend | Posted
on 15-Nov-02 11:32 PM
I'd like to draw our attention to this Foreign Affairs web destination: |
| paramendra | Posted
on 15-Nov-02 11:32 PM
I'd like to draw our attention to this Foreign Affairs web destination:
"...Musharraf's fiats were just the latest in a 45-year-long saga of military assaults on Pakistan's body politic.......... several coups, ill-considered alliances, and disastrous military operations against India .... Pakistan's military regimes have never delivered long-term economic prosperity or political stability ......... made the development of honest and effective political parties nearly impossible ......... The root causes of Pakistan's economic and political woes lie in its feudal society and the winner-take-all approach to governing that has been practiced by successive civilian and military leaders. ............ failed to address the new state's own ethnic diversity ....... a variety of Muslim communities existed throughout British India, and these communities were riven by sectarian, ethnic, and class cleavages ........... the military -- the best-organized entity in the country ......... both civilian and military rulers have exaggerated the threat from India (asserting, for example, that India seeks to repossess the entire territory of Pakistan), single-mindedly fastened on the unresolved Kashmir dispute, and assiduously courted the United States as a strategic ally .......... Free from any American pressure to pursue domestic political reform, Pakistan's military and its conservative civil service skewed the nation's developmental priorities, privileged the military's own position, and did little to dismantle the country's feudalistic, inegalitarian social structures. Unlike neighboring India, for example, Pakistan never undertook even a modest program of land reform......... how utterly unable Islamabad has been to control vast swaths of territory in tribal Baluchistan and feudal Sindh ......... , her long conversations with Benazir Bhutto do illuminate the myriad problems and challenges that a young, Western-educated woman encountered as the first female prime minister of a deeply conservative and patriarchal country ........ Pakistan's military rulers have not only usurped political power but have distorted the country's priorities and sustained unremitting hostility toward India ........... These dictators have also managed to siphon off substantial economic resources, even while accusing Pakistan's civilian politicians of being the ones who have raided the treasury. ......... it has repeatedly made overly optimistic assessments of its own prowess, uncritically assumed the reliability of potential allies, and routinely underestimated India's military tenacity and political resolve ............. unleashed pernicious social forces on Pakistan: most notably, Wahhabism, a form of virulently intolerant Islam that now threatens the cohesion of the Pakistani state ........... With the tacit consent of the CIA, Zia directed the bulk of American aid dollars to Islamist Afghan mujahideen. Benazir Bhutto, his civilian successor, followed essentially the same course under the tutelage of her interior minister, General Naseerullah Babar. In their quest for "strategic depth" in the event of a war with India, Bhutto and Babar connived to foist the brutal (and, they hoped, pliant) Taliban regime on Afghanistan -- much to the later detriment of that country, the region, and the world. ............ prominently the militant groups Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-i-Taiba, have engaged in murder, mayhem, and rape in that region while ostensibly seeking to free it from Delhi's misrule ......... the Kargil crisis of 1999 ........ Pakistan's military can be held almost solely responsible for this singularly ill-conceived adventure .......... Sharif's willingness to seek a diplomatic resolution to the crisis after it erupted contributed to his overthrow in October 1999. .......... military rule in Pakistan, particularly under Zia, spawned many of the groups that the United States now so ardently seeks to eliminate. The effect of uncritical U.S. aid has been to extend and strengthen the violent grip of the Pakistani military........... This error is all the more tragic because only the United States can force Pakistan to reorder its domestic and external priorities. In the absence of substantial American economic assistance, diplomatic support, and multilateral loans, Pakistan would plunge into economic distress and social dislocation. Washington's clout is therefore enormous, and it could demand meaningful and long-lasting changes to address Pakistan's myriad woes. Whether the United States will prod Musharraf into changing the course he is so carefully plotting -- a route toward ever increasing military dominance and ever more limited democracy -- remains uncertain, however. Meanwhile, the fate of Pakistan's 140 million citizens hangs in the balance............" China, India, Vietnam. And now Pakistan! There are lessons for Nepal. A stronger military and an absolute monarch is no solution to Nepal's woes. That would be a toxic mix. Democracy makes ever more sense. Both the anti-corruption probe and the property rights for women have been works of the Pratinidhi Sabha. |
| isolated freak | Posted
on 15-Nov-02 11:49 PM
Biswo wrote: Chinese women may not have an 'equal' status as compared to men, but they are not lagging far behind, esp in the coastal regions of China. Biswo. I agree with you here. When you talk of China, you have to talk of two Chinas: a) rural b) urban Don’t know much about China though, but based on my observation/reading/hearing what others have to say on urban Chinese women, they are no different than men or discriminated against. During the Cultural Revolution, the urban women went to rural areas and there was this group called “iron ladies brigade”. Many women from rural areas were influenced by this, so they would cut their hair really short, work in heavy industries or traditionally “male’ jobs.. So, there was this [created] “equality” in China until 1976. However, after the 4 reforms (deng’s reforms), things started to change and came back to pre Cultural Revolution china. Then the whole concept of masculinity and femininity resurfaced. Short haired, PLA-Dress wearing women brigade leaders turned into Revlon using chicks/oldies and started their own private businesses and are now rich. Even in rural china, the situation is not bad as in rural India or Nepal. Maybe its because of the Iron Ladies of the mid 60s or increasing literacy rate, the women are not miserable as some of us might want to think. About under-representation of women in politics: To understand this, you have to understand the Confucian ethics. The Chinese society is sandwiched between traditional ethics, codes and values and modernity. And the society is having a hard time balancing these two. Maybe in the next 20 years or so, when modernity fully takes over, things will be different. Another analysis is : From the establishment of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) within the Guo Mindang (GMD) in 1920/21 to the revolution of 1949, not many females were involved—except for some educated women…I forgot the name..She was a daughter of the Prof at Beijing University who taught the basics of communism to Mao. Anyway, its all irrelevant to what I am trying to say. My point is, the women participation was very low from 1921-1949. That’s why after the establishment of The People’s Republic of China in 1949, women did not rise to the power because all positions were allocated to the commanders and brave and loyal soldiers of the “revolution”. This tradition of honoring the brave soldiers and workers seem to have come to an end from the recently concluded party congress (for example, look into Li Ranhui’s case..) But, this doesn’t mean thee weren’t any token “women” or exceptions in the government and the Party. Just a freaky analysis.. |
| Biswo | Posted
on 16-Nov-02 01:45 AM
Hi Paramendraji, I did my BS from China. That was when I learned Chinese, (and some Chinese history). I read that Foreign Affairs article about more than a week ago.But you know there is no surprise in all these stuffs about recent Pakistan. Years ago, there was this Newsweek Asia edition, with Benazir Bhutto in frontpage, and its headline was "Pakistan In Peril". I had a bunch of Pakistani friends whom I asked if the dire picture the magazine painted of Pakistan (ungovernable, stinky,extremely corrupt, full of fundamentalists and arm dealers) was correct, and I was surprised to find their reply: "The situation is worse than that." A friend of mine, whose father was some high ranking officer of department of agriculture and a fertilizer businessman(buying from China, selling in Pak) told me,"In Xinjiang, whenever someone asked me where I came from, I told them Sri Lanka. I honestly believe Sri Lanka is better than Pakistan." Things in Pak are going as expected, no surprise, no surprise at all. IFji, Interesting thoughts. What surprised me is the way you wrote Kuomintang(KMT). You wrote it as Guomindang(GMD). The difference between KMT and GMD is, if you are not a China graduate like me, GMD is the way mainland China writes in English, and KMT is the way rest of the world writes the name of the party of Jiang Kaishek in English. |
| isolated freak | Posted
on 16-Nov-02 05:19 AM
Biswo, I did some research on China when in school, so know a little about China. guomindang is how they write it in pinyin romanization. jiang kaishek is hoina hola.. aas far as i know its chiang kai-shek (in wb romaniation) and jiang jieshi (in pinyin romanization). Parmendra bhagat will soon realize that FA is a propoganda managzine. some of its regular contruibutors have sparked contributions by twisting the fatcs, for example, nathan who writes on china came under heavy criticisms when he edited the tiananmen papers. when one reads the tiananmen papers by nathan, its not very hard to find out that who runs the council of FA press. (to those interested, nathan's new book on china's new rulers "China's New Rulers: The Secret Files", coauthored with b giley is now available at bookstores in the US. also, a lot of things can be said regarding zhao ziyang. so, to claim that he was more democratic than the other CCP leaders based on the readings by nathan or other FA articles or books that are available in the US can be challenged.. |
| Biswo | Posted
on 16-Nov-02 12:32 PM
IFji, Yes, it is Chiang. Sorry, I got mixed up. One interesting fact, I have a classmate now, who is from Jiang family of Ningbo to which Chiang once belonged to. Have fun in your China research. I somehow feel I know you. You have this unmistakeable identity in sajha since long time for some of your conviction, and it hasn't changed a bit even though the name has changed:-) Don't know if I am right. |
| isolated freak | Posted
on 16-Nov-02 09:07 PM
"Have fun in your China research. I somehow feel I know you. You have this unmistakeable identity in sajha since long time for some of your conviction, and it hasn't changed a bit even though the name has changed:-) Don't know if I am right. " Biswo tongzhi/lao peng, I had my share of fun when i was doing my research on china.. OK, let's not divert the discussion to other things: What do you think of the recently concluded congress of the CCP? What will be China like, in say, 20 years or so? How do you think they will resolve the Taiwan issue? and Will Jiang be able to play the role of Deng in the coming years? Let's hear your perspective. __ __ __ "follow the leads, watson" Isolated freak |
| Biswo | Posted
on 17-Nov-02 11:37 AM
IFji, And I was wondering where you had been for so long:-) -- Frankly, I am not very optimistic about this new pack. Wen Jiabao and Hu Jintao are probably the best choices. Wen is a real smart guy, something like Zhu Rongji. I remember the tenure of new politburo member Huang Ju in Shanghai as a party chief. He was not liked by many Shanghainese. In comparison, Xu Kuangdi (the mayor) was more popular. Xu was acadamic kind of guy, a fellow of Chinese Acadamy of Science And Technology, Huang Ju was more sycophant to Jiang. Another politburo member Jia Qinglin's wife was involved in a massive corruption case. This fella survived solely because of his Jiang connection. Zeng Qinghong comes from Zeng dynasty and he was a close associate of Jiang for long. A party with leaders selected that way fails to evoke confidence. That's my feeling. Let's see how it goes. However, from Nepal's perspective, these are fine people. They won't let us down. They will be as friendly to us as was Mao. So, nothing to worry about. |
| The Grocer's Wife | Posted
on 17-Nov-02 07:04 PM
Aryal Sir ko chot-patak? Hmmm.....interesting to know :-) |
| isolated freak | Posted
on 17-Nov-02 07:57 PM
"Aryal Sir ko chot-patak?" Still remains unverified hon :) __ __ __ Biswo Sir, Thank you very much for your answer. Here's what I think of what's going to happen: 1. The recently concluded party congress was historical because this time they made two decisions that were unimaginable ay, even 4 years ago: a) to bring industrialists/capitalists into the Party b) to break away from the old radicals (maobadis) 2. China will be the world's second largest economy by 2020. Taiwan will merge with the mainland. Socialism with chinese characteristics will be relaced by "capitalism with Chinese characteristics" Re: Democracy: None of the bright and the best posters, throughout this discussion didn't point out that there are other forms of democracy too. multi-party democracy isn't the only form of democracy. China is democratizing itself, and in 20 yars or so, it will be democratic. But according to a prof at stanford, it won't be "western multi-party democracy". It will be democracy with Chinese characteristics. There is democracy in China. Surprisingly enough, they are practicing elections/democracy in rural china these days. People get to choose their candidate and in fall 1998, the people in beijing got to vote to choose their mayor. Multi-party democracy can be a disaster in asian countries. The chinese leadership knows this, so, they are bringing in a new form of democracy because anyone with even a little sanity knows that there are other forms of democracy too. 3) Taiwan issue will be resolved immediately after Chen Sui Bian is out of the office. The majority of taiwanese populkation want to merge with the PRC, its leaders like Chen Sui Bian who are not letting this happen. 4) Playing Deng's role is what jiang has in mind. By playing deng he hopes to achieve two things: a) some sort of (in) direct control b)get things done through Hu and Wen Control will make his presence felt in China and within the CCP. Deng had a vision to develop China. But, he belonged to a generation that did not really buy his idea. Deng too started a mini-cultural revolution in 1986 to satisfy the radicals within the party, often termed as 'spiritual pollution campaign" by the western sinologists. After that, deng decidedc to operate behind the curtain. In jinag he saw a person who couyld fulfill his desires to devlop china. However, jiang too had his limitations because radicas were still there in the CCP. Now, Jiang will make Hu do what he couldn't do as China's president... push forward economic reforms, open up china and slowly democratize china in the years ahead. another freaky analysis. |
| protean | Posted
on 19-Nov-02 02:25 AM
China's Three Lies By NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF BEIJING With the new Chinese Communist leaders launching their rule this week, I dropped by to get the perspective of the bravest man I've ever met. They won't change the dictatorship, scoffed Ren Wanding, the pioneer of China's human rights movement. They'll change economically to a capitalist society, but not politically. Mr. Ren is so tough-minded that during the time he was imprisoned, from 1979 to 1983, for pressing his human rights campaign, he wrote a four-volume book on democracy with the only material he could find: toilet paper and the discarded nib of a pen. After his release he began campaigning for human rights again, and served seven more years in prison after the Tiananmen crackdown. The authorities put him under a loose house arrest during last week's Communist Party Congress, but he says the pressure for democracy is irresistible. At some point, he believes — maybe 10 years from now — the party will have to accept it. For now, though, the Communist leaders are doing a pretty good job of resisting the inevitable. In a country that has undergone a thrilling transformation in so many ways, where people live far better than ever before, it's deeply depressing to see a new leadership team composed of timid apparatchiks. China now has 196 million cellphones — but only one authorized way of thinking. To consider the twisted state of Chinese politics, consider the very first phrase of this column — for it contains three lies. These three Chinese lies go to the heart of the challenges that the country faces in the coming years. The first lie is the reference to China's Communists, who are not Communists at all in any meaningful sense. Chinese leaders are not so much Communists as fascists, for they aim to preside over a capitalist economic system with a large state-controlled sector, while using military power to suppress opposition. Calling them fascists actually puts them in good company. Communist countries stagnated economically and eventually collapsed, while fascist countries (Spain, Taiwan, South Korea, Chile) flourished economically, bred a middle class and eventually proved flexible enough to evolve into greater democracy. The second lie is that China installed new leaders. Hu Jintao and his pals aren't leaders but cautious followers, and their records suggest that they excel only at sycophancy toward their predecessors in power. Mr. Hu, the new party general secretary, ran two poor regions of China, Guizhou and Tibet, but left no mark in either. In Guizhou all he did was go around saying things like "Respect the aged and work with the young," according to a Chinese who travels in senior circles. He didn't actually do anything at all. The third lie is that China's new rulers are beginning to govern this week. In fact the outgoing leader, Jiang Zemin, will continue to be a power center for years to come, controlling the levers of power through his stooges. The upshot is that bold moves are difficult to imagine in the next few years. China faces immense challenges, particularly the risks of a banking crisis and of unrest from laid-off workers, but the government will tinker with the system rather than provide far-reaching reforms. The Politburo is made up of smart but cautious technocrats who operate by consensus — a recipe for gridlock. Another way of looking at it is that for most of the last 4,000 years China was ruled by an emperor of one kind or another. Beginning this week, it's ruled by a committee. Paradoxically, the man to watch is not Mr. Hu but rather No. 5 in the hierarchy, Zeng Qinghong. Mr. Zeng is a masterful politician with more self-confidence and boldness than others in the leadership. "China's New Rulers," a fascinating new book based on top-secret party documents, says that Mr. Zeng has told friends that he favors a more independent press, elections at the county level or higher, and an end to the ban on opposition parties. China is progressing, even on the political front. Mr. Ren is out of prison, risking further imprisonment by meeting foreigners and boldly handing out a delightful pink name card that proudly displays his counterrevolutionary writings and prison experience. But China's new leaders lack even a fraction of his boldness, and so it may be quite a while before China's political scene catches up to the vibrancy of its urban skylines. http://www.nytimes.com/2002/11/19/opinion/19KRIS.html |
| isolated freak | Posted
on 19-Nov-02 05:29 AM
“[crisis and of unrest from laid-off workers], but the government will tinker with the system rather than provide far-reaching reforms.” --- This won’t be the case. Actually, when there was a system of job allocation, often termed as the Iron Rice Bowl (danwei system), the majority of the people were very unhappy because the system was so rigid that once you were in a government assigned job, you were there forever. People actually wanted to work on their own or at other private business houses but the rigidity of the system did not allow that. Now that state has been closing down SOEs and laying off workers, workers are actually happy because they get to choose where they want to work. Here’s excerpt from one of my papers when I was a student a long time ago:-) Please skip it, it’s dry and boring if you are not interested. Pat Howard, an Australian Sinologist predicted in the late 90’s that if the Chinese govt. continues with its policy of closing down SOEs and laying off workers, then the leadership will have to face another Tiananmen, but this has been proven wrong. According to Arthur Rosenbaum (Chinese history Prof at CMC), people are actually happy that the state is not interfering in their personal lives by assigning jobs and confining them to work-units. “They loosened state control over society, eliminating the most bizarre intrusions into private lives. Economic reforms generated high rates of growth and dramatic improvements in living standards” (Rosenbaum, Arthur, 1992). The new leaders (Deng, Zhao Ziyang, etc.) saw the “iron rice bowl” (state allocation of jobs) as the cause of much of the laziness and carelessness among the workers that stood in the way of China’s economic development. The losses in one of every four state-run enterprises were attributed to inefficiency of workers, over-employment and mismanagement. In the sixth five-year plan (1981-1985), the CCP decided to go ahead and implement the changes of Deng Xiaoping, thus smashing the iron rice bowl and gradually ending the system of permanent tenure and secured wages to workers (Yim, 1991). A new system of “contract hiring” was introduced. According to the new system, the state would hire employees on a contract basis. Once the contract was over, the state had no responsibilities whatsoever regarding the workers. To ensure the smooth continuation of and support for the newly started privatization effort, the Chinese constitution was amended in 1992. ---- “Mr. Zeng is a masterful politician with more self-confidence and boldness than others in the leadership. "China's New Rulers," a fascinating new book based on top-secret party documents, says that Mr. Zeng has told friends that he favors a more independent press, elections at the county level or higher, and an end to the ban on opposition parties.” Don’t believe in what Nathan writes. I admit he is a Prof of Chinese history at Columbia but he has been under lot of criticism for his books, The Private Life of Chairman Mao and The Tiananmen Papers. The only good book by him is The Great Wall and The Empty Fortress (coauthored with Ross). About Human Rights in china, as long as you are not a porno fan, drug addict and don't waste your time criticizing the party for no reason whatsoever, you are fine. Last year, The People’s Daily’s web-site, fetured a discussion board where you could post messages freely as long as you didn’t use profane language. I don’t know whether the feature is still available. Constructive criticisms are welcome in china, not criticism for the sake of criticism. When talking about Human Rights, one thing you have to understand is: The Universal Declaration of Human Rights isn’t really universal and it fails to take various cultural and economical factors into account. So, what Human Rights is the west talking about? Also, I don’t see any difference between the human rights activist quoted on that article and Cai Ling (now in the US), the “radical democratic” student leader who was responsible for the untimely death of many students during the Tiananmen incident. |
| paramendra | Posted
on 19-Nov-02 06:19 PM
"....it won't be "western multi-party democracy". It will be democracy with Chinese characteristics. ..........." Each democracy is slightly different from another, but democracy is no grey area. Either a country is a democracy, or it is not, and China is not one. "..Paradoxically, the man to watch is not Mr. Hu but rather No. 5 in the hierarchy, Zeng Qinghong. Mr. Zeng is a masterful politician with more self-confidence and boldness than others in the leadership. "China's New Rulers," a fascinating new book based on top-secret party documents, says that Mr. Zeng has told friends that he favors a more independent press, elections at the county level or higher, and an end to the ban on opposition parties. ...." This is cool. "...About Human Rights in china, as long as you are not a porno fan, drug addict and don't waste your time criticizing the party for no reason whatsoever, you are fine. . ........ When talking about Human Rights, one thing you have to understand is: The Universal Declaration of Human Rights isn’t really universal and it fails to take various cultural and economical factors into account..........." No wonder you are for an absolute monarchy in Nepal. PKB Leesburg, FL |
| Biswo | Posted
on 19-Nov-02 07:08 PM
Zeng and democratic? I doubt. He is among those princes who are there in politburo because of their parents. Zeng is Jiang's right hand man, and after Jia Qinglin, probably the most unpopular among new leaders of politburo. Just asking a few of your friends from China would confirm that. |
| isolated freak | Posted
on 19-Nov-02 08:29 PM
Biswo, you are 1000% right (now don't tell me that 1000% does not exist in mathematics). If, i can be considered a friend of china, let me asnwer you: The NY TImes made its assertion based on the new book by nathan. Now, nathan is no Fairbank, Kuhn, Spence, Meisner or Kuhn. nathan uses his writing to create popular or unpopuklar sentimnents about the chinse leaderrs that he/or his masters don't lke. this is evident by his books: 1. The private life of chairman Mao.: The doctor who collaboparted with nathan. later said that nathan added his own "stories" in that book which portrayed Mao very badly. 2. The Tiananmen Papers : throughout that book zhao ziyang is being prasied as the most deemocractic of all chinese leaders. the group that nathan belongs to wanted to see zhao as the president, not hu./ so, last year, they brought out this books, portrayed everyone as villians, exccept zhao who was the most democracti of all. there is some truth to it, but that does not make zhao the most democratic.. 3. i don't know what's gotten into nathan;'s head now. china new rulers, secret files. now, where on earth he obtained secret, inner information on those leaders and how can you verify the information he provides you in that book? probably an imagineryt li bai, li mu bai, lu zhang came to him and handed him the secret files/inncer reports of the party! so, to believe nathan just because the NY Times quoted him, is to say.. 1. there aren't opther sinologists in the US 2. i chose to believe nathan anyway parmendra: i am for an authoritarian rule in Nepal and i say it. there's differencec between authoritarian rule and absolute dictatorship or monarchy. plus, parmandera, yoiu need to do your homework well. There are other forms of democracy too and MULTI PARTY DEMOCRARCY ISN"T THE ONLY FORM OF DEMOCRCY. As long as people get to choose their leaders, grow economically, have a good living.. that's demoicracy.. other thinsg come last. just because tehre is freedom of expression, you don't go around screaming..do you? |
| paramendra | Posted
on 20-Nov-02 05:36 PM
"...i am for an authoritarian rule in Nepal and i say it. there's differencec between authoritarian rule and absolute dictatorship or monarchy. .............plus, parmandera, yoiu need to do your homework well. There are other forms of democracy too and MULTI PARTY DEMOCRARCY ISN"T THE ONLY FORM OF DEMOCRCY. .......... As long as people get to choose their leaders, grow economically, have a good living.. that's demoicracy.. other thinsg come last. just because tehre is freedom of expression, you don't go around screaming..do you? ............." You are otherwise a knowledgeable person as I have read a few of your postings along different threads, but you don't seem to know jack about democracy. Authoritarian rule, absolute dictatorship, absolute monarchy: all three denote a clear absense of democracy. Granted the local elections in China are a baby step toward democracy, but that does not make China a democracy. I for one don't believe the CCP will gradually morph into a democracy: it is not its character. There will have to be a revolution. It might take a decade, but that is how change will come about. My thought. Well, in non-democratic countries like China people do NOT get to choose their leaders. One can hope for prosperity, and I think democracies are best positioned for it (example: the US, the most successful economy in human history just so happens to be the oldest democracy), but democracy is great in its own right. And China is not prospering because of the CCP but despite it. It is the little "freedom" in the form of the limited "market," that is what. Freedom of expression is fundamental. The existence of more than one political party is fundamental. You can't have a democracy without those. And your example is so out of place. Freedom is not the "freedom" to harm others. You are free as long as you don't infringe on the freedom of others, so no, you can't go shout at others and claim it is freedom: it never has been thought to be by anyone who understands the basics of democracy and freedom, which really does not ask for a genius, really. Just a little open-mindedness. And no, democracy is not a western concept any more than the Theory of Relativity is a Jewish concept. Siwalik has posted the link to an article on democracy in ancient India somewhere. Hey, let your South Asian pride come forth. Time to make a few claims! |
| protean | Posted
on 20-Nov-02 06:58 PM
Isolated Freak , Interesting and informative comments to my earlier posting of the NYTimes especially your inclusion of the excerpts from your paper when you were a student a long time ago:-). Thanks for it. Few of my responses [“Economic reforms generated high rates of growth and dramatic improvements in living standards” (Rosenbaum, Arthur, 1992). The new leaders (Deng, Zhao Ziyang, etc.) saw the “iron rice bowl” (state allocation of jobs) as the cause of much of the laziness and carelessness among the workers that stood in the way of China’s economic development.] Interesting observations there. This is in line with what economic reforms can bring about. It also is probably a testament to the fact that human genese are naturally competetive, and that whenever an opporunity arises or presents itself so that such possibilites of advancement are possible-- as was the case in the reforms for China that you aptly mentioned in your paper-- human beings are inclined towards pursuing such objectives. Whereas when a state or someone oversees your activities, and limits your role, then these desires for progress seems to be dampened and not ojectives not focused. But, the question that still remains is how long can people live under a authotarian system? I had some friend from Singapore who mentioned that they were happy to a certain extent, but not so happy of the way the system runs and dictates. Wouldn't that also be the case for China, where you'll have some economic betterment, but not enough freedom. After all human beings also seem to be more productive (and probalby more creative) when they're more independent than when they are dictated just as your paper mentioned, and what's been proven in China. Human rights is to me a right for every living human being. For example, the people who were bombed in Afghanistan by the US have the same right to life as the ones in the US , the West, or anywhere on the planet. Its America's hubris to decide to put sanctions against Iraq and possibly wage a war, where thousands of civilians were and would be affected. The right that parents want to support and love their children is also a human right. To protest against a misdoing or illegal move or action is a human right. To fight against a government when the government is going to displace you from your house near a river because it decided to build a dam is another example of a human right. I don't think these are limited to the West only ,but appicable to all human beings. As far authoritarian rule is concerned, the only problem is that you can't choose your leaders who you think will be able to bring reforms to your land. They choose themsevles for you. And if the chosen ones are inept, their peformance is dismal, and their rule very dicatorial (which might be the case), the citizens can't do anything about it. That's its biggest drawback as was evident during the Panchayat and Rana reigns. |
| isolated freak | Posted
on 20-Nov-02 08:55 PM
but you don't seem to know jack about democracy. parmednra wrote : but you don't seem to know jack about democracy. --- I have never claimed that i know jack or jill of democracy. --- You further wrote: Granted the local elections in China are a baby step toward democracy, but that does not make China a democracy. I for one don't believe the CCP will gradually morph into a democracy: it is not its character. There will have to be a revolution. It might take a decade, but that is how change will come about. My thought. parmendra : NO. This won't happen. They are practicing democracy and within the CCP itself there are more than 8 independent parties that can criticize the CCPs rules and regulations. Also, they are democratizing the party and are jholding elections in rural areas..and if i were to believe you statement, "I for one don't believe the CCP will gradually morph into a democracy: it is not its character. There will have to be a revolution." Then, it will be like saying, hey I believe a 7 class ko fuchhe who has just memorized newton's third law of motion rather than others' informed explanation of it. I spent 2 years of my college trying to learn about our northern neighbor and in that learning process, i came across many good arguments by credible sinologists form all over. One of which was brought forth by a Prof. at stanford (go check the CNN's feature section. there's a special feature on china's 50's years. look for articles and there's one on Democracy in China by a prof. at stanford. forgot his name now, but if you search for irt, you'll get it since you seem to be a search-master ). But, of course, i don't know jack and or jill, but, you know what, I am happy with my naive views.. Protean: excellent remarks. and thanks much for going over that awfully boring and dry excerpt. I will love to discuss with you the issues you raised. Sine, you are no some tom-dick-harry, i need to come up with strong counter arguments too.. right now i have to go earn my living, but i'll definately get back to you tonight. |
| isolated freak | Posted
on 21-Nov-02 04:51 AM
[Interesting observations there. This is in line with what economic reforms can bring about. It also is probably a testament to the fact that human genese are naturally competetive, and that whenever an opporunity arises or presents itself so that such possibilites of advancement are possible-- as was the case in the reforms for China that you aptly mentioned in your paper-- human beings are inclined towards pursuing such objectives. Whereas when a state or someone oversees your activities, and limits your role, then these desires for progress seems to be dampened and not ojectives not focused.] I totally agree with you. This is why the Chinese leadership in the 80’s and 90’s gradually started to loosen the state’s control over people’s affairs. Danwei (a work unit) in the cities and neighborhood committees in the villages were linked to Beijing. So, every worker/ farmer was linked to the state. This resulted in over employment, and interestingly enough people’s dis-satisfaction with the state because: 1. they felt they were under survelience the whole time 2. the majority of the workers wanted to work elsewhere—depending on their area of experitise. It wasn’t possible under the danwei system. The result: Over employment, low-productivity, unhappy workers and a burden on national economy. [But, the question that still remains is how long can people live under a authotarian system? I had some friend from Singapore who mentioned that they were happy to a certain extent, but not so happy of the way the system runs and dictates. Wouldn't that also be the case for China, where you'll have some economic betterment, but not enough freedom. After all human beings also seem to be more productive (and probalby more creative) when they're more independent than when they are dictated just as your paper mentioned, and what's been proven in China. ] The question is a very legitimate one: How long can people live under an authoritarian rule/system? My answer to this: People can’t live under the authoritarian system for long. There’s always this longing for freedom. I totally understand your concern, but the thing is, before looking for freedom and this and that, people want to be financially secure. In China’s case—capitalist economy in a socialist country—the leaders played their cards very well. They too shared the same concerns of the western sinologists that, capitalist economy in a socialist country will result in political changes. Also, they realized that influx of foreign capital, foreign goods and ideas will, sooner or later ask for political reforms. So, to prevent this: they lured the foreign investors with stability. Stability is what foreign investors, multinationals and governments look for if they are investing in other countries. In China’s case, the west seemed to have compromised on their democratic ideals and what not, as long as they could operate there and make money. But the question of averting a revolution/political change needed to be dealt with. The multinationals wouldn’t encourage unions at work places. Furthermore, no country that ahs huge investment in china will support a movement that calls for political reforms because they don’t want some ultra-nationalist or really dumb government to rise to the power and change the policies relating to trade. The Chinese workers understand this, so they don’t really care for political change. All they care for these days is a cell phone, a nice spacious apartment, kids going to English-schools, Big Mac for lunch. As long as the CCP’s government provides them with these, which it is doing.. the workers and students will remain quiet. The day multinationals leave China, foreign investors pull out their investments.. then, something might happen. But the possibility of investments going out of china is next to none. On Human Rights, let’s accept that we have our differences. So, let’s not divert this discussion on China to human rights that the US exports to other countries. I respect your views on this issue. Be consistent. [As far authoritarian rule is concerned, the only problem is that you can't choose your leaders who you think will be able to bring reforms to your land..] In china’s case, people actually get to choose their leaders. In rural areas people vote to choose their representatives. The Chinese approach is: Let’s start the practice of democracy from the rural areas. In a way they are experimenting with democracy. This is what they did with the economic reforms. 14 coastal cities were opened for direct foreign investment following Deng Xiaoping’s reforms of 1978. Then, other cities/provinces were opened for foreign investment. This is how democracy will take roots in China. Start with rural areas, make people aware of the importance of their voting power, then experiment it in the cities and if the result turns out to be positive, then hold nationwide election. They are taking one small step at a time because they learned their lesson after the collapse of the Soviet Union. And, I don’t think all leaders whom people elect are good and carry out reforms. Dictators, and authoritarian rulers such as Deng Xiaoping, deGaulle, Lee Kuan Yu, Dr. Mahathir Mohhamad and even Musharraf have carried out reforms in their respective countries. |
| isolated freak | Posted
on 21-Nov-02 05:03 AM
let me add one more thing: we bring up the issue of tiananmen to prove that there was a protest to overthrow the communist governmnet and establish "democracy". I strongly disagree. The students who were protesting then were merely asking for REFORMS within the CCP. They were not protesting for the western model democracy. [based on Wang Dan's interview in Carma Hinton's "The Gate of Heavenly Peace. Wang Dan was one of the studnet leaders during the Tiananmen incident. He later went to Harvard for PhD.] So, there has never been a movement in China's history after 1949 for western style democracy. Of course, you might bring the democracy wall issue in the late 70's or early 80's (forgot the exact date), but it was only one man's effort without any back-up or support of the masses. |
| protean | Posted
on 21-Nov-02 09:42 PM
Isolated Freak, Thanks for your excellent insights. I'll have to delve into it and give it some thought. Will be responding. |
| greatwall | Posted
on 22-Nov-02 12:16 PM
Reading above posted, wanted to post some of my own, 1.On China Taiwan issue, I do not think Taiwanese want to merge with present China although Taiwan has over $100billion investment in mainland. They first want China to be "democratic" and even then they might want autonomy better than SAR. 2. I was wondering if Jiang can hold on to background power as Deng did because of Jiang's non-military background. Although he has tried hard to overcome that weakness. 3.The new politburo may have real difficulty for new policy making since power does not lie in the hand of those.If Jiang leaves his post as general sec. at the Central Military Commission that is when the politburo will have policy making power. 4.It will be some time before China's 800million farmers get rich enough to revolt for democracy. 5.I believe women right in China have been more practical than anywhere else. 6.I was wondering why Jiang could get rid of the Security chief (Li Pheng's man) 7.Man to watch? may be non on the politburo. Because moment Jiang looses CMC somebody will replace him where smooth transition may not work. |
| isolated freak | Posted
on 22-Nov-02 12:25 PM
Parmendra , here' the article. Freak supports his views with evidence, whenever necessary, not with gross generalizations and ill-informed views. This is taken from CNN's special feature on China's 50 year's celebrations in 1999. The only mistake I made in my earlier claim: I thought Suisheng Zhao was a Prof. @ Stanford, but it turns out that he is/was a fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford and a Prof. at Colby. Liberalization in China and the prospects for democracy By Suisheng Zhao (CNN) -- After the end of the Cold War, some Western commentators looked to the demise of the Communist regimes in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe to predict the collapse of the Communist regime in China. However, instead of collapsing, China has experienced astonishing economic growth in the 1990s. Although it is arguable whether rapid economic development has significantly enhanced the legitimacy of the Communist regime, it certainly has not ensured the transformation of China into a liberal democracy. The change in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, to many Western observers, demonstrated the victory of democratic values. But to China's leaders and its people, it demonstrated the necessity of maintaining political stability and undivided national sovereignty. Many Chinese people previously active in the democratic movement have become more and more pragmatic about democratic ideals, and have focused their attentions on economic and career endeavors. As a New York Times reporter wrote in Beijing on the eve of the 10th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square crackdown, "Young Chinese, in particular, say they are more concerned with pursuing careers than multiparty democracy, which they see as a distant prospect. Many students and other Chinese now view the 1989 protests as naive and its leaders as uncompromising." Incremental liberalization This development has led some observers to wonder if China will have a liberal democracy any time soon, and speculation has inclined toward pessimism. Skeptics point out that Chinese authoritarianism has endured for millennia, and that China has repeatedly resisted the shifting tides of modern world history. This view, as exaggerated as the imminent-collapse view, has ignored the incremental, but important, political liberalization in China during recent decades. As a result of political liberalization, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has ceased to be a monolithic institution. Although it remains a ticket that must be punched, a path for the upwardly mobile and politically ambitious, most people join the party just to advance their careers and power ambitions. No longer seeking to penetrate the society, the CCP has become a network for the bureaucratic elite that offers training and connections to power. In the process, it has transformed itself from a revolutionary party to a pragmatic, status quo party. A training ground for democracy Although political liberalization has not changed the one-party rule of the CCP, it has certainly brought about gradual, but important, changes toward democratization. Multiple candidates and secret ballots have been introduced in the election of village committees, and for election to people's congresses at the local and county levels. The direct election of village committees started as a national policy in 1987, and almost all of China's 1 million villages have held at least one round of elections since then. These elections are a training ground for democracy because many town and city residents are becoming aware of their benefits. Villagers are voting more responsive and talented leaders into office, many of them young entrepreneurs who may or may not be members of the Communist Party. At the national level, the National People's Congress is no longer merely a rubber-stamp parliament. It actually debates issues and sizable blocs of representatives often oppose officially approved candidates and motions. This political liberalization, coupled with economic liberalization, has slowly laid down a foundation for democratization. It is not impossible that the Communist Party will gradually open elections above the county level. In that case, democratization would take place not by the replacement of the CCP by exiled democratic forces from below. Rather, the transition would come from above and a democratic society could begin to develop gradually under the Communist state. Enormous advantages Unless the CCP were totally devastated by such a transition, which is unlikely, it would probably be in the best position to win elections. The party's organizational sophistication and control over resources would give it enormous advantages and probably enable it to win elections. In this case, the CCP would continue to be a ruling party, and a democratized China could have a system like those in Taiwan and Japan, where a single party dominates. The process would be hard, prolonged, complex and inconclusive because it would be difficult for any CCP leader who hoped to maintain political power to take the first step across the line the party has drawn against power-sharing with any political group. Such a transition could occur, however, if the party, or a substantial faction within it, perceives that the potential advantages of a shift from slow liberalization to more rapid and fundamental democratization outweigh the risks of retaining authoritarian rule. The emerging Chinese democracy, in this case, might not be recognizable to Western observers because, as China scholar Andrew J. Nathan points out, "When Chinese democracy begins to take shape, it may turn out to be a mixture of democratic and authoritarian elements, openness and secrecy, idealism and selfishness, turbulence and stability." It is hard to predict whether China will eventually adopt a Western model of liberal democracy. But it is certain that Chinese democracy will be shaped both by Chinese historical tradition and the political power configuration at the time of transition. [Suisheng Zhao is Campbell National Fellow at the Hoover Institution of Stanford University and associate professor of government/East Asian politics at Colby College. He is the editor of The Journal of Contemporary China.] |
| isolated freak | Posted
on 22-Nov-02 12:27 PM
also check out the Time asia edition's sopcial feature on China: The Next Cultural Revolution |
| sally | Posted
on 22-Nov-02 12:46 PM
Love the title of this thread. Sounds like a 19th century pamphlet. As in, "Rum: An Instrument of the Devil, and yet To Be Taken in Moderation for its Medicinal Merit." Or a Dickensian chapter title. For instance: "Democracy in China: Wherein Various Members of the Club are seen to Discuss, Argue, and otherwise Enlighten One Another, as well as the Dyspepsic Mr. Bumble, upon the many Manifestations of This Interesting Topic, and in which Oliver Asks for More Gruel." Sorry, don't mean to digress from the subject. I'm totally impressed by everyone's knowledge, I do mean to read and learn from it sometime, and I'm afraid I have nothing but silliness to add, so I'll go away now :-) |
| isolated freak | Posted
on 22-Nov-02 12:50 PM
greatwall: Interesting questions: since, its almost midnight here, and i am enjoying the Time's coverage on China, i will get abck to your questions (if you allow me to do that) But , here's some quick notes: 1. valid argument there. But, i think, the Taiwanese population, note, not Chen Sui Bian wants to merge with the mainland if they get SAR statuts. I will explain why later, hao ma? 2. Deng's military power plus his experiecne in the revolution and French education helped him control and or influence the party, agreed. But, don't underestimnat jiang.. he knows how to balance things and stay clean. For example, look at how he handled the 89 movement in Shanghai. 3. i think, jiang will have final words ion any policies. You are right, the politbureau will report to jiang, and he will give the final approval/denial. 4.Agreed 5. Agreed 6. refer to the purge of Peng Dahuai in the 60's. [I have toa dmit that i don't know much about the motives behind Jiang's move.. I don't know whether this is the same came as with Peng Dahuai and Mao. will read on this more, before i say anything on this:-), hao ma? 7. ni shuo zhen dui aa! (you are Right) but don't you tyhink that Jiang will be in CMC or influencing it for years to come? Duibuqi (sorry). Its friday night in KTM and someone being in his early 20's, had some pijiu.. so my brain's not functioning right at the moment, but i will corroborate on these 7 points when i wake up tomorrow. xie xie ni (thank you) for these challenging questions/issues. |
| isolated freak | Posted
on 22-Nov-02 12:52 PM
sally, please stay =) |
| sally | Posted
on 22-Nov-02 01:14 PM
What the heck is =) ??? Are you telling me that you have a mohawk but it just fell down because the only type of hair gel you could get was Chinese and it didn't work very well? Just a guess. OK, I know I'm ignorant. But hey, I know how to say one thing in Chinese. Wo Chess Wo Dzai Nar? (Or something like that). |
| GreatWall | Posted
on 22-Nov-02 01:44 PM
Sorry I missed a word on 6.I was wondering why Jiang could NOT get rid of the Security chief Luo Gan(said to be Li Pheng's man) Thanks IF enjoy your pijiu. If Jiang can make both Capitalist and communist happy then he has more time on power.I mean the issues like effects of WTO and SOE ineffiency,Banks and finaicial institutionas liquidity ,control on unemployment and urban unrest and keeping momentum on overall growth and prosperity as well as fair distribution of recent earned wealth. |
| protean | Posted
on 22-Nov-02 02:00 PM
Would these kids pave the future for China's inevitable prosperity and democracy? Thought it relevant. http://www.nytimes.com/2002/11/22/opinion/22KRIS.html China's Super Kids By NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF HANGHAI Quick, what's 6 + 8 - 7 + 6 + 5? If you knew instantaneously that the answer is 18, without having to pause even a second, then congratulations! You're as bright as a Shanghai kindergarten student — calculating in his or her third language. I've met the future, and it is these kids. Americans who come to China tend to be most dazzled by glittering new skyscrapers like the 1,380-foot Jin Mao Tower, but the most awesome aspect of China's modernization is the education that children are getting in the big cities. And the long-run competitive challenge we Americans face from China will have less to do with its skylines, army or industry than with its Super Kids, like Tony Xu. Tony's real name is Xu Jun, but all the children entering the New Century Kindergarten that he attends get English names as well. Six-year-old Tony's first languages are Mandarin Chinese and Shanghainese, but even in English he rattled off answers to equations faster than I could. It was embarrassing when I posed my own question to him, 10 + 5 - 1 - 4 + 5, and he answered 15 before I could tell if he was right. I want a refund on my college tuition. Parents pay about $2,000, a huge sum here, to send a child to a year of such a private kindergarten. But since urban Chinese families now have only one child each, no expense is too great for one's "little emperor." Throughout China, first-rate private schools are popping up, as the Chinese saying goes, like bamboo shoots after a spring rain. Of course Chinese education is still hobbled by rural mud-brick schools that are in a shambles, by peasants who pull their daughters out of school, by third-rate universities. But China's great strength is that in the cities, it increasingly is not a Communist country or a socialist country, but simply an education country. When I lived in China I represented Harvard in interviewing high school students applying for admission, and it was a humbling experience. The SAT isn't offered in China, so instead the kids take the G.R.E. — meant for people applying to graduate school — and still score in the top percentiles. And while many of my Chinese friends worry that the system works children too hard and costs them their childhood, the brightest kids are not automatons; many are serious enthusiasts of art, music, poetry or, these days, the basketball plays of Yao Ming. The other day I visited one of Shanghai's best high schools, the No. 2 Secondary School Attached to East China Normal University. American students who are proud to have earned a perfect score of twin 800's on the SAT should meet the 17-year-old student here who last year got a perfect score of three 800's on the G.R.E. He Xiaowen, the principal, showed off 14 gold medals that students have earned in the international math and science Olympics. When I asked if she had any problems with students smoking or drinking, she looked so scandalized that I might have been sent to the principal's office, if I hadn't already been there. One reason for Chinese educational success emerges from cross-cultural surveys. Americans say that good pupils do well because they're smarter. Chinese say that good students do well because they work harder. A growing body of evidence suggests that Chinese students do well academically partly because their parents set very high benchmarks, which the children then absorb. Chinese parents demand a great deal, American parents somewhat less, and in each case the students meet expectations. The result is apparent at No. 2 Secondary School. The students live in dormitories, going home only on weekends, and they're mostly studying from 6:30 a.m. until lights-out at 11 p.m. On Saturdays they attend tutoring classes from 9:40 to 5:10, and on Sundays they do what one girl, Gong Lan, described as six hours of "self-assigned homework." She explained: "This is extra work to improve ourselves. I read outside books to improve my ability in any subject I feel weak in." Chinese students may not have a lot of fun, and may lag in subjects in which some American students excel, such as sex, drugs and rock 'n' roll. But these kids know their calculus and are driven by a work ethic and thirst for education that make them indomitable. With them in the pipeline and little kindergartners like Tony Xu behind them, China may eventually lead the world again. |
| protean | Posted
on 22-Nov-02 02:05 PM
HANGHAI=SHANGHAI Sally, your comments are apt. I'm learning as I proceed through this thread. It's only people with various perpectives come together that progress has a possiblity! :-) |
| protean | Posted
on 22-Nov-02 02:09 PM
only =only WHEN possiblity=possibility |
| LamjungKunchha | Posted
on 22-Nov-02 02:27 PM
IFji, My view about the merge between PRC and ROC in Taiwan is very different than yours. My understanding of Kuomintang is like "Don't ask, don't tell" policy of US military. Don't ask if we want to merge or not, and we won't tell you what to do. After Chiang family handed power to Taiwan born Li Deng Hui, its china policy has constantly shifted to more independence. Similarly, Democratic Party has already, openly embraced total seperation from China. Only party that emphasizes in one china and future reunion is the New Party which is considered the third largest party, behind KMT and DPP. To say Chenshui Bian is the only one who wants seperation is to underestimate the subtly and slowly strengthening independence movement within Taiwanese people. From my stay in Taiwan of more than 18 months and having lived in Mainland for few years, I can tell you this, Taiwanese do not view mainland as dearly as mainland would like everyone to believe. The younger generation seems to be growing more apathetic or increasingly opposing the reunion. This phenomenon can be attributed to the isolation of Taiwan from China for last few decades. Although the recent decades has seen surge of Taiwanese traveling to Mainland, the population that actually been mainland at least once is not that high, and most of the travellers are business people, not a regular Chen from Taiwan. So this has created the void of the connection or any influence of china on them. Most Taiwanese see themselves as any other chinese living in Singapore, Canada or any other third country. As the generation that fled from Mainland who saw Taiwan as their temporary refuse until they take back their bandit looted homeland is dying faster and younger generation who were born in Taiwan and educated in Taiwan about how Communist bandits are bad and restrictive, have little desire to do anything with mainland politically and see Taiwan as their permanent home. In conclusion as time passes, reunion becomes less and less feasible. |
| GreatWall | Posted
on 22-Nov-02 02:57 PM
When mainland China becomes stronger economically than Taiwan then probably the reunion issue might come up from Taiwan side. See West Germany getting back East, South Korea may be geting back North and so on and not the other way round like Malasia getting back Singapore.Unless ofcourse forced takeover.The drama of China reunion and Taiwan independence will continue with out any conclusive result for longtime to come. |
| protean | Posted
on 22-Nov-02 07:50 PM
Isolated Freak, [ In china’s case, people actually get to choose their leaders. In rural areas people vote to choose their representatives. The Chinese approach is: Let’s start the practice of democracy from the rural areas. They are taking one small step at a time because they learned their lesson after the collapse of the Soviet Union. ] Ok, provided people are happy with this kind of reform, it makes sense. However, the cities would also bear potentials of harboring leaders who might bring sweeping reforms. However, the present system isn't allowing for that possibility and the leadership at the top (those in CCP) is still based on contacts than real competition. In essence, the predecessors chose their successors based pimarily on what is best for them and the party. This doesn't have the possibiity of addressing the issues of the citizens as they MIGHT not have their representatives at the upper echelons, who could voice opinions. In addition, they can just be thrown out during the next sets of elections. In addition as cities are probably where most of the economic, educational, and cultural activities is concentrated, a polity based on selective group of people, will keep on dominating and influencing the majority of such activities with their parties' ideologies and their agendas. When such an opportunity is not available, then the city people don't have much choice than to wait till further reforms give them a possiblity of garnering more support and influence. However, after the villages start having significant influence, then, there would be a need for more reforms, and could unfold. I agree with you that democracy could dawn a small step at a time. ___________________________ [And, I don’t think all leaders whom people elect are good and carry out reforms. Dictators, and authoritarian rulers such as Deng Xiaoping, deGaulle, Lee Kuan Yu, Dr. Mahathir Mohhamad and even Musharraf have carried out reforms in their respective countries. ] Yes, not all leaders that are elected are effective and can carry out reforms, and all the dictators and authotarian leaders are not ineffective either. However, if you get a fanactic dictator, then, the chances of getting more harm increases, and the possibility of getting rid of them comes at great risk and cost. When you get an authotarian leaders like Hitler or even Saddam Huessein, for that matter, the people are led to follow them (and suffer the consequences if going against them), then the chances of suffering for the citizens of the country at the expense of the leader's decision gets magnified. _____________________________ I'm not alluding to the fact that China would come to such a crisis, but people have more chances of not wanting someone they don't like when they've a choice. Keeping the performace aside, in Nepal's case, Bamdev Gautam didn't get elected in the most recent elections, and neither did Surya Bahadur Thapa in the first general elections (owing to the Chintang Kanda). As far the article on CNN is concerned, I see that basically people are more concerned about jobs and economic betterment at this point than democratic ideals. But, as we both mentioned, when increased nbumber of citizen's standard of living rises and education and awareness level goes up, they might realize that there upward limity is limited, and that there is a restriction to how much and what you can do in terms of influence. Being human beings with an instinct for betterment and progress, they could keep on striving for more and more reforms until being able to get a system that adotps more of democratic virtues than is in existence today. It will probably some time before that happens. But, even if it happens, I don't think, it will be a completely transformed system. |
| protean | Posted
on 22-Nov-02 08:00 PM
upward limity is limited=upward mobility is limited In addition, they can just be thrown.... = Besides, they can't be just thrown... |
| protean | Posted
on 22-Nov-02 08:37 PM
This doesn't have the possibiity of addressing the issues of the citizens as they MIGHT not have their representatives at the upper echelons, who could voice opinions. In addition, they can just be thrown out during the next sets of elections. Should have read: This may not have the possibiity of addressing the issues of the common citizens as they MIGHT not have their representatives at the upper echelons, who could voice opinions on their behalf and also engaging their energies for their (common citizens') interests. In addition, the upper echelon leaders can't just be dismissed during the ensuing round of elections for the representatives currently operative in the villages. |
| isolated freak | Posted
on 22-Nov-02 08:53 PM
wow! this thread has turbned into PS Democracy 101 and ANTH 20 |
| isolated freak | Posted
on 22-Nov-02 09:14 PM
kati dherai posts... kati ramro ramro arguments. seems like i will be dedicating sanibar to read and write my comments in this thread.... |
| isolated freak | Posted
on 22-Nov-02 09:28 PM
Sally wrote: What the heck is =) ??? irts my TM registered (patent no. 00101010). i use this sign =) to show that i appreeciate your inputs/outputs, a/cc and or d/c re kya.. well, i used tori-ko-tel from khokana.. and all my hair fell off.. but i am happy.. i don'rt have to buy shampoo and worry about dandruffs. mohawk.. hmm.. nepal ma mohawk hairstyle will take you straight to Dr. pagal Bahula.. and believe me, being under his supervisioon for almost 4 months, i have no intention to go back to him. |
| kalanidhi | Posted
on 22-Nov-02 11:12 PM
Isolated Freak, Mr Bald Young Man!! Do you need a herbal fertilizer to grow your hair!! I think I know you in real!:-) Kalanidhi UCB |
| isolated freak | Posted
on 23-Nov-02 12:02 AM
no, i am happy being bald... being bald has its own adbantages... no shampoo kharcha.. no tel halne kharcha, jo hajjam kharcha.. if you know me in real, that's good. i wasn't very far from UCLA... a community college in the east LA... had fun while i was there..must have met you or talked with you at one of thoese nepali organzied events at k bhancha tyyo..5-C consortium.. anwyay, let's not get distracted from the issue that we are discussing: so far the issues are: 1. democracy 2. taiwan and mainland 3. econmy, society and the state 4. the role of new leaders Protean, greatwall, lamjung kancha, let me read you guys' excellent arguments/thoughts before i comment.. othjers too, feel free to post articles/links or your own views on this. haven't been intellectually challeneged like this since i left my gangsta' college in east LA.] |
| isolated freak | Posted
on 24-Nov-02 04:28 AM
Protean: Thanks for this great article. If you allow me, let me share my experience as a student in China for a semester: [Chinese students may not have a lot of fun, and may lag in subjects in which some American students excel, such as sex, drugs and rock 'n' roll. But these kids know their calculus and are driven by a work ethic and thirst for education that make them indomitable. With them in the pipeline and little kindergartners like Tony Xu behind them, China may eventually lead the world again.] I was on a study abroad program in Shanghai, fall 1998. We were total of 12 students from various colleges (Swarthmore, brown, Pomona, pitzer, occidental and Stanford) of various majors/interests (pre-meds, anthro, history, econ and so on). Our Program was the only program then which had the “special permission” from the Chinese govt.’s Education Ministry to live in a Chinese dorm with Chinese students. (note: foreign students in China are assigned a different dorm). I shared a room with 5 other guys (3 Chinese students of Hua Dong Shi fan da Xue “East China Normal University” and two American students). Once, one of my American room-mate asked one of Chinese roomamates, “hey dude, do you have a girlfriend? Do you guys go out on a date? The reply was, No. All liu xue sheng (foreign students) thee, including me laughed at his reply and told us how he should “enjoy” life. Then my American friend jokingly said, “you are a loser dude.” My Chinese roommate left the room, looking quite sad and depressed. Later, my another Chinese roommate enetered the room quite angrily and gave us a lecture on how much pressure they have for being the only son of their parents and how it was up to them to make their parents proud. “Dating and drinking will distract us from our studies, we want to do something that will make our parents proud. We are not Americans. ‘women bu shi mei guo ren’.’’ Then we understood why the other guy had left the room depressed because we made him feel like he was a loser. All we could do to make up was to take him to Pizza Hut and apologize for our rudeness.So, there’s a tremendous pressure on these kids in big cities such as Shanghai, Nanjing, Beijing etc. Even in America, I was amazed to see many many Chinese students at HMC (Harvey Mudd College). How did they get there? Well, throgh their hard work and dedication. |
| isolated freak | Posted
on 24-Nov-02 04:33 AM
Lamjung Kancha: Thanks much for your view (gan xie ni, xien sheng). Now, please allow me to present my view regarding the “(re) unification” of Taiwan with the Mainland. I believe that it will be in Taiwan’s best interests to merge with the mainland. They lack international support. With the PRC’s impressive growth rate, it won’t take much time for the PRC to be at par with Taiwan economically. Furthermore, it will somehow lessen Taiwan’s isolation. There are not many regimes that support Taiwan as a separate, independent nation state and even if Taiwan declares itself independent, not many regimes will be supporting Taiwan as a new nation state because nobody wants to sour their relations with Beijing. The US realized that its in their best interests to consider Taiwan a part of China than support and give legitimacy to the “rebel” government of Taiwan. The Shanghai communiqué issued during President Nixon’s historic visit states that: [The United States acknowledges that all Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is part of China. The Unites States Government does not challenge that position] Nixon went a little further than the communiqué in his private meetings with Zhou and Mao and to normalize the relations with Beijing he agreed to (on Taiwan issue): 1 reinstate the US policy on Taiwana a)status is determined—One China, Taiwan is a part of China— b) won’t support Taiwan independencec c)Support peaceful resolution(About Face: Mann, James Mann, pp. 46-49) Of course, political parties and leaders make claims and promises which for the most part remains unfulfilled. Remember the presidential elections of 2000 (please feel free to correct the date). Chen Sui Bian during his campaign said that he will make Taiwan independent, somehow he won the elections, but when he reinstated his earlier claim there was a financial crisis in Taiwan. The share market went down and people feared of economic crisis and a possible forceful “merge” into the mainland. Then, Chen toned down his rhetoric, and A-Mei (a popular Taiwanese singer who is also very popular in the mainland) went to Beijing, sang songs to the crowd that consisted some of the “high-ranking” officials of the Zhong-Hua-Ren-Min-Gong-He-Guo (People's Republic of China)and at the end of the show, she said something like “we are one”. This was a brilliant diplomatic move on Chen’s part (interesting thing to note is: A-Mei sang the Taiwanese national anthem(?) during Chen’s inauguration!) Also, many people in Taiwan are up for the unification if the Chinese govt. gives them the SAR status. As I stated earlier, the Taiwanese population (as far as my little knowledge goes), don’t want any war with the mainland just because someone insane comes up and says, hey we are independent nor can they risk a financial crisis. So, sooner or later (hopefully by the time of next presidential elections), the Taiwanese political parties will have a consensus on peaceful re-unification with the mainland. ”To say Chenshui Bian is the only one who wants seperation is to underestimate the subtly and slowly strengthening independence movement within Taiwanese people.” Let me make myself clear on one thing: I have never been to Taiwan and my knowledge of Taiwan comes from books and newspaper articles that I read. So, I don’t know about this “strengthening independence movement within Taiwanese people”. But, you have bought up an interesting issue, I will definitely do some research on it. Thanks for bringing in what was lacking in the Taiwanese discussion—the general opinion of the people. Wow! You have quite an experience!!But, will these Taiwanese kids that you are talking about be enjoying their luxuries if the PRC attacks Taiwan in case it declares itself independent? Will the Mainland ever let an independent movement take momnentun in China? So, my personal opinion is: Taiwan will merge with China because they will have to. There’s no way out for them. So, I agree with what Greatwall has to say on this. Reunification is very VERY likely within the next 10-20 years. Please feel free to post counter-arguments and help me learn more on this. |
| isolated freak | Posted
on 24-Nov-02 05:12 AM
Protean: [Ok, provided people are happy with this kind of reform, it makes sense. However, the cities would also bear potentials of harboring leaders who might bring sweeping reforms. However, the present system isn't allowing for that possibility and the leadership at the top (those in CCP) is still based on contacts than real competition. In essence, the predecessors chose their successors based pimarily on what is best for them and the party. This doesn't have the possibiity of addressing the issues of the citizens as they MIGHT not have their representatives at the upper echelons, who could voice opinions. In addition, they can just be thrown out during the next sets of elections.] Excellent point there, but I don’t find myself agreeing to the last 4 lines. I think the Party/Politbureau chooses people/leaders based on their handling of crises/crises like situations. Before, rising to the top the new leaders have to prove their worth. So, its not like bunch of old people sitting and saying, yeah, I kinda like this dude’s face, so let’s nominate/elect him as our new President or PM. The recent trend is that, unless you are popular among the masses, or have shown excellent leadership skills, you won’t rise to the top. [In addition as cities are probably where most of the economic, educational, and cultural activities is concentrated, a polity based on selective group of people, will keep on dominating and influencing the majority of such activities with their parties' ideologies and their agendas.] No, Not really. The Party has stopped interfaring in cities’ economic, cultural or academic affairs. Plus, people who rise to the top are mainly from the cities, so they know they shouldn’t be messing with the cities lifesyle. About Party ideologies and agendas: Well, the CCP has made its agendas clear which seem to be economic growth and stability ( and preserving china’s territorial integrity). People also want the same and the leadership wants the same. So, the political view converge with that of the masses. [When such an opportunity is not available, then the city people don't have much choice than to wait till further reforms give them a possiblity of garnering more support and influence. However, after the villages start having significant influence, then, there would be a need for more reforms, and could unfold. ] I don’t think city people have given up on polkics. The CCP has been delivering what they want and they are happy. Of course, it will be nice to have your represnetatives but when you know its not going to happen for a few years, so why bother? This seems to be the city people’s attitude. [However, if you get a fanactic dictator, then, the chances of getting more harm increases, and the possibility of getting rid of them comes at great risk and cost. When you get an authotarian leaders like Hitler or even Saddam Huessein, for that matter, the people are led to follow them (and suffer the consequences if going against them), then the chances of suffering for the citizens of the country at the expense of the leader's decision gets magnified. ] Agreed. |
| isolated freak | Posted
on 24-Nov-02 05:17 AM
Protean: [I'm not alluding to the fact that China would come to such a crisis, but people have more chances of not wanting someone they don't like when they've a choice. Keeping the performace aside, in Nepal's case, Bamdev Gautam didn't get elected in the most recent elections, and neither did Surya Bahadur Thapa in the first general elections (owing to the Chintang Kanda). ] Agreed. [As far the article on CNN is concerned, I see that basically people are more concerned about jobs and economic betterment at this point than democratic ideals. But, as we both mentioned, when increased nbumber of citizen's standard of living rises and education and awareness level goes up, they might realize that there upward limity is limited, and that there is a restriction to how much and what you can do in terms of influence. Being human beings with an instinct for betterment and progress, they could keep on striving for more and more reforms until being able to get a system that adotps more of democratic virtues than is in existence today.] Agreed. People want their presence felt once they feel that they are financially, academically sound and are ‘aware” of their rights. But, don’t underestimate the CCP leadership. They too, know this. So, by the time people start think along this line, the CCP would democratize it fully, incorporating people from varied acadmic and social background and make it a more “inclusive” party and also hold elections. [It will probably some time before that happens. But, even if it happens, I don't think, it will be a completely transformed system. ] I think the same, but it will be somehow better than it is today. Freak PS: How the Chinese government is actually encouraging the people to become capitalists? As I was watching CNN’s Asia Edition, there was this amazing news:There’s a new film out in China called the C.E. O, which is doing good in theaters all over China. The movie is based on the story of a Chinese factory worker who later became one of the richest Chinese entrepreneurs, guess who? The founder of Haier electronic appliances. “Being rich is glorious” says the CCP leadership, and the movie is all about spreading this message to the masses. Am I being clear? did I present my views clearly? I won't dare to ask you that if i was able to persuade you. :-) |
| LamjungKunchha | Posted
on 24-Nov-02 12:31 PM
IFji I agree with you Taiwanese fear war. And the threat of the war is the only thing keeping many Taiwanese supporting the reunion. Only thing should be clearly noted here, it is not their love affairs for so called "Motherland" and it is the fear that is keeping them declaring independence. That fear of uncertainity (not even war) was responsible for economic turmoil during the early days of Chenshui Bian's election victory. If There was no fear of military attack, Taiwan would have been independent country by now. Moreover, Mainland China is doing nothing to woo the people of Taiwan. It is loosing the PR war among Taiwanese population. I am pointing out this lack of PR that will be the key issue when there is a real choice of independence (i.e, without fear) in Taiwan. As far diplomatic isolation is considered, it is the government who is feeling the pinch of it. Public doesn't feel that problem as much. Any Taiwanese can go wherever they want to, even North Korea. They can trade with any country they want to. The diplomatic isolation would never bring any drastic change. Yes, Chen has to tone down his stance once he became the president but the underlying support he received during the election because of his stance in independence cannot be ignored. The growth of this mass has been continuous, The popular vote DPP was getting few election cycles back was much less than their ground breaking win during 2000 presedential eleciton. My point is that support will only grow not diminish as the time passes by making the indepence less likely. Gotta go now but I will respond re. Shanghai communique and the threat of attack. LK. |
| isolated freak | Posted
on 25-Nov-02 01:06 PM
LamjungKunchha: ni shuo zhen dui aa!! (you are right) but: You also agree that the Taiwanese populkation fears war. I do the same. They can't afford a war with mainland, can they? so, they will keep on being a rebel province. the question, is how long they can survive as a rebel province of the mainland? the merge is obvious, whether peaceful or forceful, hoina ta? just my views. I agree with you when you say, its not their love for the motherland, but i don't think any way out for them.. let's hear your perspective on the shanghai communiqe and US stand on ROC and PRC. |
| GreatWall | Posted
on 25-Nov-02 01:42 PM
I do'nt see a war for Taiwan as long as Taiwan does not declare independence.And Taiwan knows very well that sentiment of Bejing.Therefore they can stay as they are as long as they want.There is no dead line for China to reclaim Taiwan.I believe Bejing is interested in Taiwanese investment dollar right now.Taiwan has survived Mainland for more than 50 years already, and I guess it should have no problem for another 50 before China overtakes Taiwan on economic and development front, they need to tackle bigger economy like Japan.That is when the reunion will make economic meaning just like european union. |
| isolated freak | Posted
on 25-Nov-02 01:54 PM
greatwall, excellent 'tarka' there. butn that is "if taiwan does not declare itself indep[endet", what if it does? didn't china had his missiles everything pointed towards taiwan in 2000? |
| isolated freak | Posted
on 25-Nov-02 01:54 PM
had his=had it's |
| GreatWall | Posted
on 25-Nov-02 03:05 PM
Why will Taiwan risk a war by declaring independence? Taiwan and Chiana were both testing the water in 2000.Independence is a political propaganda that serves some parties just like Hindutava does for others in India.So I beleive the merge is not Inevitable. Today I read some where that the difference between rich and poor in China was higher than in the USA.How will they balance? Any thought? |
| protean | Posted
on 25-Nov-02 04:42 PM
Interesting remarks Isolated Freak. I am going to put in my own comments on these and respond to your arguments on the politics subsequently. ( I have never been to China, and don't have any specialization in this field. But, so far my interest of its potential has been attracting me to this thread to share my perspectives.:-). ) [Then we understood why the other guy had left the room depressed because we made him feel like he was a loser. So, there’s a tremendous pressure on these kids in big cities such as Shanghai, Nanjing, Beijing etc.]... I don't deny the aptitude and the hardworking nature of the young students in China. Ok, it seems that these students are really really diligent and also very astute. But, what is the pressure all about ? Is it going to a top rated Univesity in China? Is it being accepted to a top rated institution in the US? Couldn't this actually result in being burnt out,and also drained by the time these students end up finishing colleges? Would these students actually have time to be creative? How about time to develop the skills of diplomacy, strategy, public speaking, and power to convince? Would/Could that part be developed? Or would they be too mechanical at it? In essence these students would be the future leaders of the country. Would they have time to reflect and come up with different strategies to consider societail,political, business,as well as cultural issues? Or, would they have spent too much time to have learnt the followd the "standard path" for guaranteed success? Even in America, I was amazed to see many many Chinese students at HMC (Harvey Mudd College). How did they get there? Well, throgh their hard work and dedication. ] Yes, HMS does have lots of Chinese. So does Berkeley, Caltech, and Stanford. Even the second generation Chinese Americans seem to extremely well at these tests and attend these colleges. The question is: Most of these good students either end of staying in US, don't they? And as long as companies and institutions in the US seem to dominate the R& D effort,the information network, as well as are able to attract the brightest minds (in various fields)--through incentives--,it might be some time until these real talents might be able to utilize their skills effectively in their home country. But,once China is able to provide such an environment (to both the village and the urban populace),then China would, indeed be paving its way towards prosperity. |
| LamjungKunchha | Posted
on 25-Nov-02 04:54 PM
IFji, Although Shanghai explicitly states America recognizes one china and Taiwan is a unseperable part of PRC, in practicality, American has not been as true to that statement as the PRC would like it to be. Arms sale and Military aid are not any different than what it was during last few years of Americans recognition of Taiwan. Moreover, the US diplomatic mission in Taipei functions as if it is an embassy. The person in charge is nominated by the President and approved by the Senate. During war games of 1996's presidential election in Taiwan, Two US carreers were commanded to change their routes and travel via Taiwan Straight which forced Chinese to mellow down little. I was in Taiwan during that time. Yes, that was the talk of the town then but everything ran as if nothing had happened. The effect was minimum. Only big change I saw was the numbers of people travelling in and outside of Taiwan. My point here is Shanghai Communique is not as hurtful to Taiwan as one would think. Taiwan would not probably declare independence for a while. I suspect it would remain as it is until the China stop threatening. But China would never dare to attack Taiwan either. It would not be in their best interest. I expect the status quo remain for a while and China will stop threatening and then Taiwan will declare independence. That's just my opinion. On the side note, before I landed on Taiwan, my expectation of Taiwan was to see more developed china . But the experience was an eye opener. These two societies have grown a lot in different ways. Only thing common I found was the language and food some degree. (Even the language is different sometimes). I realized these societies have grown independently for five decades, one influenced by American Consumerism and another by the diktats of Communism/Socialism. To say they are culturally attached is to ignore the difference of these two very different systems. |
| protean | Posted
on 25-Nov-02 06:21 PM
The Malaysian state of Penang has been a center of trade and entrepreneurship since the British East India Company set up a trading post there in 1786. Since the 1970's, it has become a manufacturing hub for the technology industry with Intel, Dell, Motorola, Hewlett-Packard and others investing in four big industrial parks. Recently, however, new investment has dwindled as companies expand in China instead. At least a dozen factories in Penang's industrial zones are now up for sale. "Every multinational is telling us that China is the place to be," said Boonler Somchit, executive director of the Penang Skills Development Center, a government-industry endeavor. Over time, said Mr. Lee of Singapore, Southeast Asian countries have to recognize that they may largely work as low-end suppliers to China, Japan and South Korea. Even Singapore, a center for services and high-tech manufacturing, feels China's heat. Job losses have mounted and the property market has slowed, at least in part because of a diversion of investment and work to China. "There's nothing we can do if China decides to put in their resources, catch up and overtake us," Mr. Lee said. "They are in this catch-up phase, and they are thrilled at the prospect of closing in." For both the region and the world, the evolving relationship between the two regional giants, Japan and China, is crucial. The relationship is really more of a triangle that includes the United States because of the American military treaty with Japan, its large troop deployments in South Korea, Japan and the Pacific and the American pledge to help Taiwan defend itself. In recent ceremonies in Beijing to commemorate the anniversary of diplomatic relations, Chinese and Japanese officials gamely tried to highlight their recent decades of friendship and cooperation. But mutual suspicions run deep, reflecting centuries of stormy history, including Japan's invasion of China in the early 20th century and continuing incidents that inflame tempers on both sides. Today in Japan, resentment over what is perceived as Chinese haughtiness is on the rise, fed by Japan's recent crisis in confidence and Chinese needling about historical crimes. Defense planners worry about traditional geographic and strategic matters as well as the economic balance. "As China's military power grows they may not actually threaten us directly, but they could more easily intimidate us," said Masashi Nishihara, president of the National Defense Academy in Yokosuka, near a giant American base south of Tokyo. "They will become more arrogant." Mr. Jia, the foreign policy expert in Beijing, counters that Japan's suspicions are more a reflection of its own insecurities and guilt. "I think these fears come from the imbalance in growth rates and from Japan's failure to come to terms with its history," he said. East Asia's greatest flash point, aside from the Korean Peninsula, is Taiwan. China has been willing to back off from aggressive threats to see how far Taiwan's economic needs will push it into the mainland's fold. But Chinese officials worry that the simmering independence movement in Taiwan could force Beijing to start a war it does not want, and they resent American weapons sales, which they call an obstacle to "peaceful reunification." Although Japan, like the United States, officially calls Taiwan part of "one China" and supports a peaceful resolution between Beijing and Taipei, defense planners like Mr. Nishihara raise uncomfortable questions about the future status of the island. "Strategically, if Taiwan falls under Beijing's military control, that would threaten the sea lanes of East Asia, and Chinese forces wouldn't be very far from our territory in Okinawa," he said. A former senior American official agreed. "Of course we'd like to see a peaceful settlement, but Taiwan's absorption in a way that puts the Chinese army on the island is not in American or Japanese interests," said the former official, an Asia specialist whose views are shared by many in the Bush administration. "The sea lanes of Southeast Asia are now neutral, but there is a latent expectation in China that the South China Sea is their territory." Chinese leaders, in private conversations with American officials, have indicated that they can live with the United States-Japan military alliance because they view it as a stabilizing factor. But in policy institutes in Beijing, many scholars and defense analysts describe the alliance as an artifact that should disappear. The Japanese official who spoke about a Chinese dynasty emphasized that Japan did not seek a showdown with China, but he said his country had to prepare for the worst as it expanded its own military defenses and nurtured the American alliance. "Japan hopes for a stable China with more democracy," the official said, "but if the Communist Party starts to lose its ability to govern, or if the economy collapses, China could be taken over by extreme nationalists and pursue an adventurist foreign policy." |
| protean | Posted
on 25-Nov-02 06:21 PM
Would it be in US political interest not to let China grow so rapidly so as to thwart its (China's) stride of assuming the "more powerful" role? Would that be the case? But, with the economic possibilities existent in China for the US and other developed markets, what would stop the them from not encouraging China to embark on and team up on such efforts considering the comparative advantages that it offers? Just read this piece about where China could be heading in terms of becoming the powerhouse in Asia. ________________________________________________ http://www.nytimes.com/2002/11/24/international/asia/24CHIN.html Asia Worries About Growth of China's Economic Power By ERIK ECKHOLM with JOSEPH KAHN BEIJING, Nov. 23 — Ever since 1949, when Mao Zedong proudly declared that "the Chinese people have stood up," China's neighbors have waited warily for the day when its power would match its potential. For many Asians, that moment is nearly here, with nightmares about economic domination more prominent these days than uncertainty about how China might brandish its future military might. The Japanese shudder as growth reports show China zooming upward at 8 percent while Japan's economy stagnates. In middle-income Malaysia, officials and workers are chilled by the spread of "for sale" signs in the country's premier industrial zone, where high-tech foreign investors are pulling out for China. "You look at the economic scales — it's going to be an elephant on one side and a mouse on the other," said Lee Kuan Yew, Singapore's senior minister and an elder statesman of Asia who has spoken frankly of the need to accommodate China's rise. Regardless of Beijing's efforts to soothe sensitivities, Asian neighbors sense that China's growing strength will cause traumatic shifts in power. A stronger China will undercut the pre-eminence of Japan, challenge America's role as regional overseer and rewrite Southeast Asia's economic and political course. As they took stock of their country's status at the Communist Party Congress last week, China's leaders had reason to feel optimistic. But one of their trickiest challenges will be how to exert their economic and political clout without frightening their neighbors into hostile alliances. Mr. Lee, for one, seems assured that Beijing's style has changed. "The emphasis is on expanding their influence through the economy," he said. "In the geopolitical sense, they're more concerned now with using diplomacy in their foreign policy, not force." Some of the worries of China's neighbors, especially in the economic arena, may indeed be overblown. Not so long ago, Japan was described as the next global superpower. Apart from its determination to plant the flag on Taiwan, China is not behaving in an expansionist way, and it still must cope with poverty and other social problems. But its neighbors' fears are often visceral, rooted in historical rivalries as well as current threats to jobs and influence, and they are often expressed with a tinge of bitterness. "Are we to become a vassal of the Chinese dynasty again?" one Japanese official asked. "The stronger China looks to the Japanese, the closer the security arrangement with America has to be. We have no other options." In the Malaysian industrial center of Penang last year, some 16,000 jobs disappeared from the high-paying electronics industry, including those of managers and engineers. "Their companies ask them to go to China to help set up factories," Kenneth Stephen Perkins, a union leader, said of such skilled employees. "When they come back to Penang, they are informed they no longer have jobs." The Chinese scoff at foreigners' fears, repeating that theirs is a peace-loving nation and that everyone can benefit from China's economic growth. "China is integrated with the world now, and it sees that its chance to achieve development is through economic, not military, means," said Jia Qingguo, a foreign policy expert at Qinghua University in Beijing. Mr. Jia agrees with government officials who say fears often emanate from hostile elements who are out to keep China down. China's new tactics were on full view this month at a summit meeting of Asian nations in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. China reached a deal with the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or Asean, to prevent clashes in the disputed South China Sea. If carried out in spirit the agreement would ease tensions. Still, every country is aware that official Chinese maps still show its national boundaries overlapping territorial waters claimed by others. China and Asean also signed a commitment to forge a free-trade area by 2010 with China as the core — in effect, an offer by Beijing to help neighbors share in its growth. The agreement was reached more quickly than expected and left Japan a surprised and worried outsider. Throughout Asia, a debate is raging over whether China's soaring growth is harming its neighbors. Foreign investment "seems to be sucked in by China," Malaysia's prime minister, Mahathir Mohamad, said at a recent conference. Despite all the cries of alarm, the Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore — all Asean members — have seen huge increases in exports to China in the past two years as China's factories absorb raw materials and parts from around the region. But there is increasing fear that China has become, almost overnight, a competitor for the sorts of medium- and high-tech industries that still power growth in its more developed neighbors, the so-called Asian tigers. Competition for foreign investments is especially intense. China's entry into the World Trade Organization in 2001 prompted a surge in foreign investment — it may reach a record $50 billion this year — even as neighbors saw their totals shrink. |
| protean | Posted
on 25-Nov-02 06:57 PM
[So, its not like bunch of old people sitting and saying, yeah, I kinda like this dude’s face, so let’s nominate/elect him as our new President or PM. The recent trend is that, unless you are popular among the masses, or have shown excellent leadership skills, you won’t rise to the top. ] I agree to what you're saying. Mind you, it won't be based on pure sycophancy. But, still to be the first amongst the equals,one has to pull the right strings, and the CCP would of course have the ultimate say on this. If there are two equally well positioned possible leaders, one more CCP leaning, and the other more reform leaning(reform within the CCP and also what the party dictates), then in all likelihood, the one with closer ties with CCP gets selected. ___________________________ (In addition as cities are ...) [No, Not really.... People also want the same and the leadership wants the same. So, the political view converge with that of the masses.] Right now, the leadership within the CCP might be stil be based on selection of qualified personalities from the city with pro CCP ideologies. That's fine as long as the citizens agree to it. But, is anti CCP sentiment actually led to flourish or is this spirit dampened? Would there be voices heard from those with different viewpoint than CCPs, and come up with some middle of the path solutions? Or are the people just led to belive and required not to challenge the Status Quo or be reprimanded for doing so? As long as the people are allowed to lead a decent lifestyle without so much interferecne from the state and as long as the citizens decide to be hapy with the market, then things might be fine. What happens if the economy starts taking a dive ? Would the CCP function as it is doing now? What about the citizens? Wouldn' they want a change? __________________________ [I don’t think city people have given up on polkics. The CCP has been delivering what they want and they are happy. Of course, it will be nice to have your represnetatives but when you know its not going to happen for a few years, so why bother? This seems to be the city people’s attitude.] As pointed to above, it is the comfort of knowing that the life is good as long as the economy is functioning effectively. But, when people do start to realize that they could still be doing much better, that would be an interesting period to watch. ___________________________ The CNN information about the CEO movie seems very relevant to China today. But, certainly, the the gains that one might have were the state not overseeing and also monitoring the entire proceses, would be probably even more solid. Could this realization or the need to release from this supervision also be monumental for further tranformations? This also migh be a marketing gimmick employed by the CCP to change its image and garner more support and attract further investments. Having said that, this movie should be apt for the current situation in China and quite educational. We should be able to do something like that in Nepal,too, shouldn't we?? Your arguments were lucid ,informational, and pertinent. Keep it up! Protean |
| protean | Posted
on 26-Nov-02 02:12 PM
Some different perspective on the religious freedom (or lack thereof) in Today's China. http://www.nytimes.com/2002/11/26/opinion/26KRIS.html God and China By NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF HONGXIANG, China She never broke when she was tortured with beatings and electrical shocks, and even when she was close to death she refused to disclose the names of members of her congregation or sign a statement renouncing her Christian faith. But now, months later, Ma Yuqin abruptly chokes and her eyes well with tears as she recounts her worst memory: As she was being battered in one room, her son was tortured in the next so that each could hear the other's screams, as encouragement to betray their church. "They wanted me to hear his cries," she said, sobbing. "It broke my heart." Ms. Ma, a steel-willed woman of 54, was brave enough to tell her story of the persecution that Christians sometimes still face in China. Dozens of members of her church are still imprisoned, and those free are under tight scrutiny, but several church members dared to meet me for a tense interview after we all sneaked one by one into an unwatched farmhouse near Zhongxiang, a city in central China, 650 miles south of Beijing. China is in many ways freer than it has ever been, and it's easy to be dazzled by the cellphones and skyscrapers. But alongside all that sparkles is the old police state. Particularly in remote areas like this, police can arrest people and torture or kill them with impunity, even if they are trying to do nothing more than worship God. Accordingly, Washington must press China hard to observe not only international trade rules, but also international standards for human freedom. Secret Communist Party documents just published in a book, "China's New Rulers," underscore the grip of the police. The party documents say approvingly that 60,000 Chinese were killed, either executed or shot by police while fleeing, between 1998 and 2001. That amounts to 15,000 a year, which suggests that 97 percent of the world's executions take place in China. And it's well documented that scores of Christians and members of the Falun Gong sect have died in police custody. In some parts of China Christians worship completely freely. But in other areas the authorities brutally crush the independent churches, and that's what happened to the South China Church, an evangelical Christian congregation active here. Ms. Ma said she and her family were sleeping one night in May 2001, when police burst into her house and arrested her, her son and her daughter-in-law. The police left her 5-year-old grandson alone with nobody to take care of him. A 27-year-old woman friend and fellow Christian named Yu Zhongju who dropped by the house was promptly arrested as well. Ms. Yu died in custody, and one can surmise that she was beaten to death. According to interviews with church members and statements smuggled out of prison, dozens of church members were arrested at the same time and were beaten with clubs, jolted with cattle prods and burned with cigarettes; when they fainted, buckets of water were poured on them to revive them. Interrogators stomped on the fingers of male prisoners and stripped young women prisoners naked and abused them. "They used the electrical prods on me all over," Ms. Ma said, fighting back the tears again. "They wanted to humiliate us." The government initially sentenced five church members to death. Ms. Ma herself was released because she was so sick that the authorities feared she would die in prison, but her son, Long Feng, was sent to labor camp where the guards told criminals to beat him up. One of the ironies of Christianity in China is that in the first half of the 20th century, thousands of missionaries proselytized freely and yet left a negligible imprint. Yet now, with foreign missionaries banned and the underground church persecuted, Christianity is flourishing in China with tens of millions of believers. To his credit, President Bush has emphasized the issue of religious freedom in China, and there is progress. Last month a court overturned the death sentences of the South China Church leaders, replacing them with long prison terms. Increasingly, a historic change is visible: Citizens of China are becoming less afraid of the government than it is of them. I had assumed that Ms. Ma,, like all the other church members I interviewed, would not want her name published. "No," she said firmly, "use my name. I'm not afraid. The police are afraid of foreign pressure, but I'm not afraid of them." |
| isolated freak | Posted
on 27-Nov-02 11:15 AM
Protean wrote: But, what is the pressure all about ? Is it going to a top rated Univesity in China? Is it being accepted to a top rated institution in the US? Couldn't this actually result in being burnt out,and also drained by the time these students end up finishing colleges? Would these students actually have time to be creative? How about time to develop the skills of diplomacy, strategy, public speaking, and power to convince? Would/Could that part be developed? Or would they be too mechanical at it? Good questions there, Protean. Yes, its about attending top institutions in china or elsewhere (not necessarily the US). Re: other questions: my view hai.. (my personal views, i am not a china-expert) 1. There's this one -child policy in China, because of this, the parents want their one and only child to be one of the best in sports, edcation and other things.NOt everyone is good at everything and education is one thing that always makes your parents proud--whether in the US, Nepal or China. So, these kids try to dow ell in their studies, set aside everything else excpet for sports and video games. How these kids develop social skills? Protean, these kids have to live in a room of 8 students. Not everyone thinks/acts the same way. Imagine yourself living with 7 room-mates in a small room and actually daling with them. This is how they learn to fiught, make friends, drink and study. If you have to convince 7 roommates for 4 years, then you can convince anyone in the real world. They become good at playing one aginst another and develop strategic thinking and diplomacy. You further wrote: The question is: Most of these good students either end of staying in US, don't they? Yes, they do. The Indians do it, nepalis are doing it and so are they. "But,once China is able to provide such an environment (to both the village and the urban populace),then China would, indeed be paving its way towards prosperity. " exactly. once the economy prospers and the companies spend on research and development then many of these brights students go back to their home coiuntries. aafno desh bhaneko aafno desh ho.. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| isolated freak | Posted
on 27-Nov-02 11:19 AM
excellent remarks there... by lumjung kancha , protean and greatwall.. i'll have it read 'em carefully before i reply.. but i'll definately get back to all the posts.. (i mean, i will be posting my freaky comments soon) |
| isolated freak | Posted
on 27-Nov-02 11:21 AM
read it as i'll have to read em carefully... typo typo |
| isolated freak | Posted
on 30-Nov-02 12:15 PM
sorry for this considerable delay in getting abck to you guys' excellent and thought-provoking remarks. but, i'm finally at it with my freaky analysis: Protean wrote: I agree to what you're saying. Mind you, it won't be based on pure sycophancy. But, still to be the first amongst the equals,one has to pull the right strings, and the CCP would of course have the ultimate say on this. If there are two equally well positioned possible leaders, one more CCP leaning, and the other more reform leaning(reform within the CCP and also what the party dictates), then in all likelihood, the one with closer ties with CCP gets selected. Exactly. This happens everywhere. hoina ra? Protean: Right now, the leadership within the CCP might be stil be based on selection of qualified personalities from the city with pro CCP ideologies. That's fine as long as the citizens agree to it. But, is anti CCP sentiment actually led to flourish or is this spirit dampened? Would there be voices heard from those with different viewpoint than CCPs, and come up with some middle of the path solutions? Or are the people just led to belive and required not to challenge the Status Quo or be reprimanded for doing so? Here, i agree with the first line. the question on ideaology is an excellent one. I think, the chiense leadership has learned a lot from the "Hundred Flowers" campaign and they actually encorage anti-CCP sentiment. The mdia is not as tightly controlled as in Mao's days or deng's days or even jiang's early years. So, its changing. I don't there is any middle path "swabhawik" solution in the real world. This middle path/appraoch woreks in Buddhism just the way egalitarianism works in marxism, but in the real world, its this way or the other. You further wrote: As long as the people are allowed to lead a decent lifestyle without so much interferecne from the state and as long as the citizens decide to be hapy with the market, then things might be fine. What happens if the economy starts taking a dive ? Would the CCP function as it is doing now? What about the citizens? Wouldn' they want a change? I don't think the chinese economy will have any problem for another 20 years, and in that 20 eayrs, there will be internal reforms withing the CCP and also we will see some external reforms (outside of the CCP). Protean: The CNN information about the CEO movie seems very relevant to China today. But, certainly, the the gains that one might have were the state not overseeing and also monitoring the entire proceses, would be probably even more solid. Could this realization or the need to release from this supervision also be monumental for further tranformations? This also migh be a marketing gimmick employed by the CCP to change its image and garner more support and attract further investments. Yes, the movie actually encourages people to engegae in private enterprises/businesses. But, i disagree with you when you say the outcomes would be even more solid if the state does not watch.monitor the entire process. The state has to monitor the process to: 1. keep tarck of the company's tax issues 2. make sure that the ROI stays in China |
| isolated freak | Posted
on 30-Nov-02 12:26 PM
LK wrote: Although Shanghai explicitly states America recognizes one china and Taiwan is a unseperable part of PRC, in practicality, American has not been as true to that statement as the PRC would like it to be. Arms sale and Military aid are not any different than what it was during last few years of Americans recognition of Taiwan. Moreover, the US diplomatic mission in Taipei functions as if it is an embassy. The person in charge is nominated by the President and approved by the Senate. I agree, but, taiwan does not have a sovereign status if we go by the international law, so, taiwan still remains a rebel province of China. Americans have been true to their statement because they closed down their embassy in Taipei. This means, the US still regards Taiwan as a rebel province of china. about arms deal, this is changing. recently, (well a year or two ago) the US backed off from the AEGEIS (speling??) slaes to Taiwan, following the Chinese protests. You further wrote: Taiwan would not probably declare independence for a while. I suspect it would remain as it is until the China stop threatening. But China would never dare to attack Taiwan either. It would not be in their best interest. I expect the status quo remain for a while and China will stop threatening and then Taiwan will declare independence. That's just my opinion. I will say, taiwan will never declare independence. If they could not declare themselves independednt when china was in pretty bad shape, then how can they do it now? LK:On the side note, before I landed on Taiwan, my expectation of Taiwan was to see more developed china . But the experience was an eye opener. These two societies have grown a lot in different ways. Only thing common I found was the language and food some degree. (Even the language is different sometimes). I realized these societies have grown independently for five decades, one influenced by American Consumerism and another by the diktats of Communism/Socialism. To say they are culturally attached is to ignore the difference of these two very different systems. I agree. But, with the opening of china where big mao has finally met bic mac, i don't think there will be much cultural difference between the mainlad and twaiwan in 10-20 years from now. They both eat han bao bao and listen to ren shi qi and a-mei, so there's not much difference even today. and, i personally think that socialism with chinese charatceristics means capitalism. som, they have the almost-same political economy, labguage and culture. [I admit sometimes taiwanese chinese and mainland chinese are different, for instance, wo hao hao e, and wo hen e, but these are just minor differences. The taiwanese write in fan ti zi where as the mainlanders have adopted simplified... but again this is not a major problem jasto lagcha malai] |
| isolated freak | Posted
on 30-Nov-02 12:34 PM
Protean: about that NY artcile, let me share my views: I think china fears christianity. christianity has destroyed china like no other forces did (for more on this read about the taping and boxer rebellion), based on these two and other countless historical experience people tend to see christianity as something else. but, this doesn't mean that the situation is horrible, people are now freer than ever to do/preach/practice whatever/whicever religion they like. I myself attended sunday masses at a chuch in Shanghai ( just wnated tos ee how it was like in China). my sympathies are with ma-ma and her son, but these are just one-two incidents. this happens everywhere in the world. just ebcause china opposes the "unilateral" US view on Human Rights, events there tend to get more publicized in the western press, including the NY Times. Noam Chmski, a Prof at MIT thinks the US is the one who violated human rights, International law and any standard international norm that you can think of. Also, one interesting fact to note is that: the chinese have started renovating the churches/mosques/monastaries which were destroyed during the cultural revolution. also, the CCP (through its siter organizations) has built a monastery in Lumbini!!! |
| isolated freak | Posted
on 30-Nov-02 12:36 PM
sorry about the typos, grammar errors and spelling errors. |
| protean | Posted
on 02-Dec-02 07:02 PM
Isolated Freak, Very thorough analysis, and excellent remarks!! I took a break and headed out for some some fresh air, which explains my delayed response. Will comment on your postings soon. |
| protean | Posted
on 03-Dec-02 08:03 PM
Isolated Freak: [I don't there is any middle path "swabhawik" solution in the real world. This middle path/appraoch woreks in Buddhism just the way egalitarianism works in marxism, but in the real world, its this way or the other.] In the real world, one can always have a practical solution and not necessarily be a stickler to extreme measures. This might sound idelalstic, but is possible. As we are discussing the eventual shaping up China's policy and polity, we,ourselves surmise that it will be a combination of captialistic leaning & a more democratic society which will have some traditional norms in it. Wouldn't that be a middle of the road approach that we see China taking in the years ahead? I think there are reformists in China ,but the majority are led to believe the doctrines of the CCP. I am not an advocate of the Western form of democracy, but I see that, time will move China towards a more balanced approach keeping both its traditional values and adopting reforms. Buddhism works in real life ,too, and some of its earnest practioners ,do show evidence of it. And that probably is a reason that its various forms are affecting more and more people around the world. Buddhism ,to me, doesn't need proselytizing or needs to be forced upon; it just trascends and makes it impact. __________________________________ [I don't think the chinese economy will have any problem for another 20 years, and in that 20 eayrs, there will be internal reforms withing the CCP and also we will see some external reforms (outside of the CCP).] Provided that the economy takes a postive stride, that's fine. All these internal and external reforms would be enabled by increased economic activity. This would probably take China in the path that we're predicting. But, as the 1990 Tech boom in the US has shown, and various other economic cycles have revealed, it is very hard to predict the nature of the economy. Even, Japan at one point in time had a robust economy and was really growing. But, there comes a time when the economy could go south, couldn't it? What measures would ensure China's continued prosperity? Why are its policy so failproof? I acknowledge that the burgeoning manufacturing activities, the skilled labor force, the increased foreign investments indicate a possible growth in the economy. But, if the investments are redirected or manufacturing and other financial activities slow down, then the economy could take a nose dive. How would the govt. react if that situation arises? What about the CCP? I'm just wondering what the strategy might be then. ___________________________________________ [Yes, the movie actually encourages people to engegae in private enterprises/businesses. But, i disagree with you when you say the outcomes would be even more solid if the state does not watch.monitor the entire process. The state has to monitor the process to: 1. keep tarck of the company's tax issues 2. make sure that the ROI stays in China ] Where I'm wondering the monitroing might be less an incentive, and more an impediment, is for the smooth flow of capital, for increased investments, and possibly additional business activities (due to bureacracy and appeasing different groups) --which might occur if these conditions didn't prevail. But, if China has its own way of providing incentives, that's for it to work with. Yes, the state does need to keep track of the corporate tax, but wouldn't lowering coporate taxes bring in more investments? What if the state lowered the taxes? _________________________________ About your observations to the NY Times piece The religious incident might be more an aberration than a norm. But, the church and state should be competley separate and independent. Yes, religious persecution shouldn't be tolerated and allowed. It's interesting to note of your experiences while attending the Sunday masses in China. Is this the general trend all over China, or primarily in the coastal cities? What about the curriculum in the schools? Do they teach of/about different faiths in the world and their significance? I had an opportunity to visit the Chinese built monastery in Lumbini. Quite an interesting architecture! Seems like religious diversity is being accepted and encouraged. |
| protean | Posted
on 03-Dec-02 08:12 PM
How threatening would a prospering China be to US dominance (both political, and economic) in the next 15 years --if its economy keeps on growing at this rate? This article just touches [on the surface] upon the trend in China. Don't know if this is representative of progess in Rural China. ____________________________________ http://www.nytimes.com/2002/12/03/opinion/03KRIS.html Will China Blindside the West? By NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF GAOSHAN, China This is the story of the Dai family in China's remote Dabie Mountains, and a reminder that we're not doing much to prepare for perhaps the most important long-term trend in the world — the rise of China. The Dais live here in Gaoshan, a hamlet in central China's Hubei Province. I met them in 1990, when their eldest child, an excellent sixth-grade student named Dai Manju, had just dropped out of school because the family could not afford $13 in annual school fees. Gaoshan had no electricity and was a two-hour hike from the nearest dirt road. The Dais shared their mud-brick house with their pig, and they owned nothing: no watch, no bicycle, no change of clothes. I wrote about Dai Manju back then, and a reader sent her $100 to help, but Morgan Guaranty Trust Company missed a decimal point and sent $10,000 instead. The villagers were mightily impressed by American generosity — and carelessness. The money went not to the villagers but to the county authorities, who used it to cover school fees for Dai Manju and other pupils and, mostly, to build a desperately needed school in another district. Since then, gaps between rich and poor have worsened in China, and so I decided to seek out the Dai family again. I thought that I would find them still living amid desperate poverty and official indifference, allowing me to write a reality-check column about how the Chinese boom has boosted coastal areas but left the vast interior little changed. But then I came to the end of the old dirt road — and found that the path had been extended a few years ago so that now it is possible to drive all the way to Gaoshan. Every home in the village now has electricity. Two families even have telephones. As for the Dais, they are living in a new six-room house, made of concrete. The pig lives outside. The parents proudly showed me their stove, television and electric fan. Dai Manju turned out to have graduated from high school and then from technical school in accounting, and such lofty academic credentials are no longer uncommon in Gaoshan. She and her two siblings are working in Guangdong Province, all earning $125 a month or more — what her father earned in a year. These inland rural areas lag behind the coastal regions, and so the income gaps are growing. But lives are unmistakably getting better almost everywhere. (The only exception I saw was Henan Province, where AIDS is impoverishing villages.) Partly gains come because peasants in villages like Gaoshan go south to work in those sweatshops denounced by American students but treasured by Chinese workers. The lesson, for me, is that China's transformation is trickling even into the poor interior, dragging all 1.3 billion people into the world economy. When historians look back on our time, I think they'll focus on the resurgence of China after 500 years of weakness — and the way America was oblivious as this happened. Plenty can still go wrong in China, from a banking crisis (national banks are insolvent) to labor riots (laid-off workers are grumbling everywhere). The government is often brutal and is catastrophically mismanaging an AIDS crisis. But it's possible for China simultaneously to torture people and enrich them. Human and financial capital are growing and being deployed more sensibly, and a ferocious drive and work ethic are galvanizing even remote nooks like Gaoshan. For most of human history, China was the world's largest economy and most advanced civilization. Then it stagnated after about 1450, but some estimates are that even as late as 1820 China amounted to 32 percent of the world's G.D.P. — and then it utterly collapsed. Now, with the Dais and a billion people like them emerging from subsistence, China is on course eventually to recover its traditional pre-eminence. And just as China at its peak was blindsided by the rise of the West, we're likely to be blindsided by the rise of China. You want a Thanksgiving example of that drive I mentioned? Some years ago, a friend was among a group of Americans teaching English in Sichuan Province, and when they couldn't locate a turkey for Thanksgiving they asked a government official for help. Eager to please the Americans, he arranged a feast that included, amazingly, two turkeys. Later it turned out that he'd confiscated them from the local zoo. |